Posts Tagged ‘Intesa Sanpaolo’




The EU Summit Agrees on the Well-Intentioned, but Ultimately Meaningless and Unenforceable 'Fiscal Compact'

The Czechs and Brits seem to be the only ones who can clearly see where the HMS EU Titanic is now heading. Or let us rather put it this way: they are perhaps not the only ones who can see where it is heading (toward the proverbial iceberg),  but they have turned out to be the only ones who – for now anyway – refuse to take part in this perilous journey.

We are slightly surprised that not more of the former Eastern European command economies have jumped ship. After all, the path the EU is now on – toward increased centralization and rule by faceless bureaucrats with little democratic accountability – is fatally reminiscent of the organization they once were involuntary members of, the COMECON of yore (Совет экономической взаимопомощи, pronounced: 'soviet ekonomicheskoy vsaymopomoshchi' – the 'Council for Mutual Economic Assistance').

Read the rest of this entry »




Fitch Strikes Again

Following on the heels of the recent euro area downgrades by S&P, Fitch has now also issued several new downgrades. While this has not been unexpected, it further complicates the efforts to bring the crisis under control. Of course one must always keep in mind that these downgrades are only belated confirmations of what the markets have long ago recognized and priced in already. The only new problems raised by such downgrades come from indexation and the rules governing the fiduciary responsibilities of certain institutional investors. Investors who allocate their bond investments by the weightings that such bonds have in bond indexes are forced to sell bonds that are removed from indexes due to rating changes – this is one of the effects currently plaguing Portugal's bond market.

This in turn then forces clearing firms such as LCH Clearnet to alter the margin respectively haircut requirements of the bonds concerned in repo transactions, if their spread over the benchmark (a mixture of several AAA rated euro area government bonds) increases beyond a certain minimum threshold.

Read the rest of this entry »




Credit Market Watch, January 26

Below is our customary collection of charts updating the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and a few other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Wednesday's close.

While most moves in these markets have been rather unremarkable lately, one must keep a close eye on what is happening in view of the chock-full 'event calendar' in the euro area over coming weeks.

Most euro area sovereign CDS and bond yields  have seen a little bounce yesterday, but the most notable moves are still occurring in CDS and yields on Portuguese government debt. As mentioned yesterday, Portugal is now clearly in the market's crosshairs. This is partly a result of the Greek debt fiasco, but mostly it is due to the somewhat belated realization that even in the wake of recent economic reforms, Portugal will simply not be able to cope with its debt as envisaged in the original bailout package. 

Portugal's prime minister has pleaded for more time: if only the markets would give him time, or the EU somehow arranged to give him enough time, all would be well. Alas, time is in short supply these days. The markets no longer believe it will make a difference. In fact, the belief is probably that over time, things are bound to still get worse, given the recent economic downturn.

As laudable as for instance Portugal's recent labor market reforms are, they have been put in place a year or two too late.


Read the rest of this entry »




Credit Markets Chart Update, January 25

Below is our customary collection of charts updating the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). CDS prices are as of Tuesday's close, except yields and basis swaps which are as of today.

Credit conditions in euro-land continue to ease across the board, with the notable exception of Portugal.

Also, one of the Middle Eastern CDS spreads that have broken out recently continues to march higher, namely CDS on Bahrain. Bahrain is under Sunni rule, but has a Shi'ite majority population. This could create complications in the context with the recent confrontation between the West and Iran.

Read the rest of this entry »




Goodbye, Upbeat Tone?

After the S&P downgrade of nine euro area sovereigns late last week and the fact that Greece's debt negotiations have stalled, Reuters reports today on the sudden absence the more optimistic tone that followed recent successful debt auctions and falling yields for Italy and Spain.


Read the rest of this entry »




Armageddon Averted? Not So Fast.

Mario Draghi was eager yesterday to point out that the measures taken by the ECB have 'avoided an imminent credit crunch' in the euro area and pointed to the decline in various government bond yields as a measure of success.

Italy sold € 12 billion of bills yesterday, at the upper end of the target range and at a far better yield than on occasion of the last sale, seemingly underscoring Draghi's assertions.

Read the rest of this entry »




Euro Area Credit Market Charts

Below is our customary collection updates of the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Both charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). CDS prices are as of Friday's close, bond yields and basis swaps  are as of today's close (Bloomberg updates of CDS are always a bit late).

Read the rest of this entry »

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • MponengGold and Gold Stocks – It Gets Even More Interesting
      Technical Backdrop If only we could get a dime for every bearish article on gold that has been published over the past two weeks...but one can't have everything. When a market is down 83% like the HUI gold mining index is, we are generally more interested in trying to find out when it might turn around, since it is a good bet that it is “oversold”. Of course, it if makes it to 90% down, it will still be a harrowing experience in the short term. We like these catastrophes because...
  • resultThe Greatest Racket of All Time
      The Successes of the Global War on Terror One would think that the so-called “Global War on Terror”, which has been given fresh impetus by the Paris attacks, must be going swimmingly. What else could explain the great enthusiasm with which it is pursued? It may be recalled that it started in earnest after the WTC attack – also a declaration of war, as it was put at the time. As is often the case when Islamist fundamentalists strike, the actual attackers immolated themselves on...
  • winterThe Long, Cold Winter Ahead
      Not Immune Cold winds of deflation gust across the autumn economic landscape.  Global trade languishes and commodities rust away like abandoned scrap metal with a visible dusting of frost.  The economic optimism that embellished markets heading into 2015 have cooled as the year moves through its final stretch.   Photo credit: David Byrne   If you recall, the popular storyline since late last year has been that the U.S. economy is moderately improving while the...
  • santaHow Do People Destroy Their Capital?
      There is no Santa Claus I have written previously about the interest rate, which is falling under the planning of the Federal Reserve. The flip side of falling interest rates is the rising price of bonds. Bonds are in an endless, ferocious bull market. Why do I call it ferocious? Perhaps voracious is a better word, as it is gobbling up capital like the Cookie Monster jamming tollhouses into his maw. There are several mechanisms by which this occurs, let’s look at one...
  • oil rigJunk Bonds Under Pressure
      While the Stock Market is Partying ... There are seemingly always “good reasons” why troubles in a sector of the credit markets are supposed to be ignored – or so people are telling us, every single time. Readers may recall how the developing problems in the sub-prime sector of the mortgage credit market were greeted by officials and countless market observers in the beginning in 2007.   Photo credit: Getty Images   At first it was assumed that the most highly...
  • I'll have TurkeyThe Plane Incident in Syria
      A Strange Event The topic of the SU-24 Russian plane shot down by Turkey over the weekend in Syria has been discussed all over the media ad nauseam by now, but we want to add a few observations and suggestions of our own. Some have perhaps not received the attention they possibly deserve.   Image of Russian jet shortly after it was hit by a Turkish missile. Luckily someone was promptly at hand to make a qualitatively acceptable video of the incident. As is well known, cameramen...
  • Young-European-Jihadists-ChappatteAngry Belgian Muslims and the Price of Welfare Statism
      Ill-Tempered Mohammedans in the Socialist Paradise In the wake of recent revelations about the identities of the morons involved in the horrific Paris attacks (happily, most of them shuffled off the mortal coil as well, thereby improving the aggregate degree of moral clarity and intelligence in the world), a friend pointed us to an article at Unz Review that asks: “Why Does Belgium Have Such Angry Muslims?” Our instinctive, immediate reaction was to argue that the bland, boring...
  • Chart-intraday averageCan Investors Trust the New Gold Fixing?
      Statistical Analysis of the New Gold Fixing   Since 20 March 2015 a new gold price fixing organized by the London Bullion Market Association has been in operation. It has replaced the previous price determination process, which was in place for more than a century and became subject to criticism as it was highly vulnerable to manipulation. Has manipulation now ceased?   Gold fixing at N.M. Rothchild and Sons offices in London. The first fixing took place there on 12 September...
  • King and CEOGiant “Green Energy” Boondoggle Flops in Spain
      $29 billion Vaporized As is well-known, Spain is one of the countries in the euro area's periphery that has been thoroughly bankrupted by its decision to join the euro area and enjoy an artificial credit expansion-induced boom as its interest rates initially collapsed. This was aided and abetted by the ECB, which sat idly by as the euro area's true money supply exploded into the blue yonder with annualized growth rates ranging from 6% to 18% during the boom years.   Tower at...
  • BN-GO061_WAJ_Mo_J_20150121165559US Money Supply Growth Finally Begins to Crack
      Breaking Below the Shelf In our recent missive on junk bonds, we inter alia discussed the fact that the growth rate of the narrow money supply aggregate M1 had declined rather noticeably from its peak in 2011. Here is a link to the chart. As we wrote:   “We also have confirmation of a tightening monetary backdrop from the narrow money supply aggregate M1, the annualized growth rate of which has been immersed in a relentless downtrend since peaking at nearly 25% in 2011....

Support Acting Man




Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Realtime Charts


Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from]


THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Buy Silver Now!
Buy Gold Now!