Posts Tagged ‘Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’
The EU Summit Agrees on the Well-Intentioned, but Ultimately Meaningless and Unenforceable 'Fiscal Compact'
The Czechs and Brits seem to be the only ones who can clearly see where the HMS EU Titanic is now heading. Or let us rather put it this way: they are perhaps not the only ones who can see where it is heading (toward the proverbial iceberg), but they have turned out to be the only ones who – for now anyway – refuse to take part in this perilous journey.
We are slightly surprised that not more of the former Eastern European command economies have jumped ship. After all, the path the EU is now on – toward increased centralization and rule by faceless bureaucrats with little democratic accountability – is fatally reminiscent of the organization they once were involuntary members of, the COMECON of yore (Совет экономической взаимопомощи, pronounced: 'soviet ekonomicheskoy vsaymopomoshchi' – the 'Council for Mutual Economic Assistance').
Fitch Strikes Again
Following on the heels of the recent euro area downgrades by S&P, Fitch has now also issued several new downgrades. While this has not been unexpected, it further complicates the efforts to bring the crisis under control. Of course one must always keep in mind that these downgrades are only belated confirmations of what the markets have long ago recognized and priced in already. The only new problems raised by such downgrades come from indexation and the rules governing the fiduciary responsibilities of certain institutional investors. Investors who allocate their bond investments by the weightings that such bonds have in bond indexes are forced to sell bonds that are removed from indexes due to rating changes – this is one of the effects currently plaguing Portugal's bond market.
This in turn then forces clearing firms such as LCH Clearnet to alter the margin respectively haircut requirements of the bonds concerned in repo transactions, if their spread over the benchmark (a mixture of several AAA rated euro area government bonds) increases beyond a certain minimum threshold.
Credit Market Watch, January 26
Below is our customary collection of charts updating the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and a few other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Wednesday's close.
While most moves in these markets have been rather unremarkable lately, one must keep a close eye on what is happening in view of the chock-full 'event calendar' in the euro area over coming weeks.
Most euro area sovereign CDS and bond yields have seen a little bounce yesterday, but the most notable moves are still occurring in CDS and yields on Portuguese government debt. As mentioned yesterday, Portugal is now clearly in the market's crosshairs. This is partly a result of the Greek debt fiasco, but mostly it is due to the somewhat belated realization that even in the wake of recent economic reforms, Portugal will simply not be able to cope with its debt as envisaged in the original bailout package.
Portugal's prime minister has pleaded for more time: if only the markets would give him time, or the EU somehow arranged to give him enough time, all would be well. Alas, time is in short supply these days. The markets no longer believe it will make a difference. In fact, the belief is probably that over time, things are bound to still get worse, given the recent economic downturn.
As laudable as for instance Portugal's recent labor market reforms are, they have been put in place a year or two too late.
Credit Markets Chart Update, January 25
Below is our customary collection of charts updating the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). CDS prices are as of Tuesday's close, except yields and basis swaps which are as of today.
Credit conditions in euro-land continue to ease across the board, with the notable exception of Portugal.
Also, one of the Middle Eastern CDS spreads that have broken out recently continues to march higher, namely CDS on Bahrain. Bahrain is under Sunni rule, but has a Shi'ite majority population. This could create complications in the context with the recent confrontation between the West and Iran.
Goodbye, Upbeat Tone?
After the S&P downgrade of nine euro area sovereigns late last week and the fact that Greece's debt negotiations have stalled, Reuters reports today on the sudden absence the more optimistic tone that followed recent successful debt auctions and falling yields for Italy and Spain.
Armageddon Averted? Not So Fast.
Mario Draghi was eager yesterday to point out that the measures taken by the ECB have 'avoided an imminent credit crunch' in the euro area and pointed to the decline in various government bond yields as a measure of success.
Italy sold € 12 billion of bills yesterday, at the upper end of the target range and at a far better yield than on occasion of the last sale, seemingly underscoring Draghi's assertions.
Euro Area Credit Market Charts
Below is our customary collection updates of the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Both charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). CDS prices are as of Friday's close, bond yields and basis swaps are as of today's close (Bloomberg updates of CDS are always a bit late).
Most read in the last 20 days:
- The Baby Boomer Survival Guide (Part I)
The Yellow Machines Go Silent PARIS – What should you do if you are running out of time and money? This is the question we get from readers over 50… over 60… and sometimes over 70. We baby boomers were famously “na… na… na… live for today.” Now, it’s tomorrow. And many of us – often through no fault of our own – are having trouble making ends meet. At the Diary, we write about the world of money. About economic policy and how it affects you. But what if,...
- Faith in Central Banks Dwindles
Even Bloomberg Notices that Something is Amiss As anyone who hasn't been in a coma knows, assorted central bank interventions have failed to achieve their stated goals over the past several years. A recent article at Bloomberg focuses on their failure to reach their “inflation” targets. Of course, this particular failure is actually reason to celebrate, as it means that consumers have at least been spared an even sharper decline in their real incomes than has been underway in spite...
- EU Moloch in a Fresh Bid to Inflate
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- Tell us Ron, What's the Plan, What's the “Austrian” Plan?
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- Refugee Crisis Blowback
A Sharp Turn in Swedish Politics When we recently discussed Europe's refugee crisis, we mentioned that a sizable political backlash was to be expected and that unfortunately, extreme nationalist parties were likely to be among the main beneficiaries. We also mentioned the situation of Sweden, where the mainstream political parties in an ongoing fit of political correctness bordering on lunacy have apparently decided to transform Sweden into a province of Mesopotamia. Leader of...
- The Baby Boomer Survival Guide (Part II)
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- US Stock Market: A Retest or Worse?
Gray Swans and Black Swans By Monday's close, the S&P 500 Index was closing in on the low established in the August swoon – such a retest was essentially our minimum expectation, as V-shaped rebounds are very rare. The question is now whether it will only be a retest, or if something worse is in the offing. No-one knows for sure of course, but we'll briefly discuss what we are looking at in this context. Image via NYTimes It is interesting that as the market...