Posts Tagged ‘Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’

     

 

 

The EU Summit Agrees on the Well-Intentioned, but Ultimately Meaningless and Unenforceable 'Fiscal Compact'

The Czechs and Brits seem to be the only ones who can clearly see where the HMS EU Titanic is now heading. Or let us rather put it this way: they are perhaps not the only ones who can see where it is heading (toward the proverbial iceberg),  but they have turned out to be the only ones who – for now anyway – refuse to take part in this perilous journey.

We are slightly surprised that not more of the former Eastern European command economies have jumped ship. After all, the path the EU is now on – toward increased centralization and rule by faceless bureaucrats with little democratic accountability – is fatally reminiscent of the organization they once were involuntary members of, the COMECON of yore (Совет экономической взаимопомощи, pronounced: 'soviet ekonomicheskoy vsaymopomoshchi' – the 'Council for Mutual Economic Assistance').

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Fitch Strikes Again

Following on the heels of the recent euro area downgrades by S&P, Fitch has now also issued several new downgrades. While this has not been unexpected, it further complicates the efforts to bring the crisis under control. Of course one must always keep in mind that these downgrades are only belated confirmations of what the markets have long ago recognized and priced in already. The only new problems raised by such downgrades come from indexation and the rules governing the fiduciary responsibilities of certain institutional investors. Investors who allocate their bond investments by the weightings that such bonds have in bond indexes are forced to sell bonds that are removed from indexes due to rating changes – this is one of the effects currently plaguing Portugal's bond market.

This in turn then forces clearing firms such as LCH Clearnet to alter the margin respectively haircut requirements of the bonds concerned in repo transactions, if their spread over the benchmark (a mixture of several AAA rated euro area government bonds) increases beyond a certain minimum threshold.

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Credit Market Watch, January 26

Below is our customary collection of charts updating the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and a few other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Wednesday's close.

While most moves in these markets have been rather unremarkable lately, one must keep a close eye on what is happening in view of the chock-full 'event calendar' in the euro area over coming weeks.

Most euro area sovereign CDS and bond yields  have seen a little bounce yesterday, but the most notable moves are still occurring in CDS and yields on Portuguese government debt. As mentioned yesterday, Portugal is now clearly in the market's crosshairs. This is partly a result of the Greek debt fiasco, but mostly it is due to the somewhat belated realization that even in the wake of recent economic reforms, Portugal will simply not be able to cope with its debt as envisaged in the original bailout package. 

Portugal's prime minister has pleaded for more time: if only the markets would give him time, or the EU somehow arranged to give him enough time, all would be well. Alas, time is in short supply these days. The markets no longer believe it will make a difference. In fact, the belief is probably that over time, things are bound to still get worse, given the recent economic downturn.

As laudable as for instance Portugal's recent labor market reforms are, they have been put in place a year or two too late.

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Credit Markets Chart Update, January 25

Below is our customary collection of charts updating the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). CDS prices are as of Tuesday's close, except yields and basis swaps which are as of today.

Credit conditions in euro-land continue to ease across the board, with the notable exception of Portugal.

Also, one of the Middle Eastern CDS spreads that have broken out recently continues to march higher, namely CDS on Bahrain. Bahrain is under Sunni rule, but has a Shi'ite majority population. This could create complications in the context with the recent confrontation between the West and Iran.

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Goodbye, Upbeat Tone?

After the S&P downgrade of nine euro area sovereigns late last week and the fact that Greece's debt negotiations have stalled, Reuters reports today on the sudden absence the more optimistic tone that followed recent successful debt auctions and falling yields for Italy and Spain.

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Armageddon Averted? Not So Fast.

Mario Draghi was eager yesterday to point out that the measures taken by the ECB have 'avoided an imminent credit crunch' in the euro area and pointed to the decline in various government bond yields as a measure of success.

Italy sold € 12 billion of bills yesterday, at the upper end of the target range and at a far better yield than on occasion of the last sale, seemingly underscoring Draghi's assertions.

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Euro Area Credit Market Charts

Below is our customary collection updates of the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Both charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). CDS prices are as of Friday's close, bond yields and basis swaps  are as of today's close (Bloomberg updates of CDS are always a bit late).

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Hungary Back At the Bailout Trough As Investors Go On Strike

Today Hungary's government came under renewed pressure, as yields on Hungary's government debt keep soaring and a treasury bill auction failed.

As Bloomberg reports:

 

„Hungary raised less than planned at a Treasury bill sale as yields soared  on concern the International Monetary Fund and European Union won’t resume aid talks.

The government sold 35 billion forint ($140 million) of one-year bills, 10 billion forint less than targeted, data from the Debt Management Agency, known as AKK, on Bloomberg show. The average yield rose to 9.96 percent, the highest since April 2009, from 7.91 percent at the last sale of the same-maturity debt on Dec. 22.

The cost of insuring Hungary’s debt through credit-default swaps reached an all-time high and the forint touched a record low versus the euro after aid negotiations stalled because of new laws that threaten to undermine the independence of the central bank. Hungary needs a deal as soon as possible and is ready to discuss the conditions, Tamas Fellegi, the minister assigned to lead the talks, told reporters today.

“Fellegi’s comments are aimed at providing reassurance, but I think the market will adopt a seeing-is-believing approach,” Timothy Ash, a London-based economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in an e-mailed comment. “Market trust in this administration is now at rock bottom levels.”

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Euro Area Credit Market Charts Update and A Mixed Bag of News From Euroland

Below is our customary collection updates of the usual suspects: CDS spreads, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Both charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Tuesday's close. Among the big movers in CDS spreads we have of course Hungary, which has become a new focus of market worries. Otherwise no large moves have occurred (Spain is an exception to that as well, see below), but euro basis swaps have recovered smartly now that end of year related liquidity pressures have eased.

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Euro Area Credit Market Charts – Update

Below is our customary collection of CDS prices, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Both charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Tuesday's close, except for bond yields which reflect today's close in Europe. Spain's and Italy's yields have come down a tad today.

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 


Moody's Gets Sentimental Over Austria

The normally hard-hitting credit rating agency Moody's, widely despised and feared among governments in the euro area, just reaffirmed the 'AAA' rating of  the 'island of the blessed' as it is ironically known among its inhabitants, the picturesque Socialist Republic of Austria. Moody's has it right insofar as it can of course never be said that there is a crisis in Austria as long as the supply of 'Mozartkugeln' remains secure.

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Euro Area Credit Market Charts – An Update

Below is our customary collection of CDS prices, bond yields, euro basis swaps and several other charts. Both charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Wednesday's close.

We have only sporadically updated these charts in recent days as not much is happening into year end, although there have been some gyrations in euro basis swaps as the scramble for dollars continues.

As a result of speculation that the ECB's latest measures will create a pause in the crisis and may lead to some sovereign bond buying by banks, most of the  major sovereign CDS spreads continue to come in a  little bit. Alas, bond yields have seen a bounce in recent days on profit taking, especially Spain's. 

Note also that CDS on France and Belgium remain quite elevated and CDS on Japan have suddenly begun to rise (Japan is always a potential 'gray swan').

Read the rest of this entry »

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • factoryA Striking Chart
      The Economy and the Stock Market As long time readers know, we are always paying close attention to the manufacturing sector, which is far more important to the US economy than is generally believed. In terms of gross output it is the largest sector of the economy, and it should of course be obvious that saving, investment and production are the only ways to create wealth.   What's left of the Brooklyn Domino Sugar Refinery. Photo credit: Paul Raphaelson   Contrary...
  • trump-putin-1024Trump and Putin Narrowly Escape Assassination Attempt
      The Gloves are Coming Off First a little bit of recent history. Readers are probably aware that some questions about the occasionally malfunctioning Deep State android... no, wait, we'll start again. Questions have recently been raised about the health of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by various “alt-right” tinfoil hat-wearing conspiracy theorists, such as this one.   The monsters are normally hiding under Hillary's bed, but lately they have come out into the open...
  • historical-photos-pt9-pepsi-factory-baltimore-1956-aUS Economy - Curious Pattern in ISM Readings
      Head Fake Theory Confirmed? This is a brief update on our last overview of economic data. Although we briefly discussed employment as well, the overview was as usual mainly focused on manufacturing, which is the largest sector of the economy by gross output.   Pepsi factory in Baltimore, 1956 Photo via pinterest.com   Readers may recall that we have pointed out for some time that there was quite a large gap between the data reported in regional Fed manufacturing...
  • swing-voterWhy the Fed Destroyed the Market Economy
      What Have You Done for Me Lately? Swing voters are a fickle bunch.  One election they vote Democrat.  The next they vote Republican. For they have no particular ideology or political philosophy to base their judgment upon.   The primacy of the wallet.   They don’t give a rip about questions of small government or big government.  Nor do they have any druthers about the welfare or warfare state. In effect, they really don’t care.  What’s important to the...
  • time-wastersHow is Real Wealth Created?
      An Abrupt Drop Let’s turn back to our regular beat: the U.S. economy and its capital markets. We’ve been warning that the Fed would never make any substantial increase to interest rates. Not willingly, at least.   Groping in the dark, Yellen-style   Each time Fed chief Janet Yellen opens her mouth, out comes a hint that more rate hikes might be coming. But each time, it turns out that the economy is not as robust as she had believed... and that a rate hike isn’t...
  • wallet-367975_960_720Janet Yellen’s Shame
      Playing Politics In honest capitalism, you do what you can to get other people to voluntarily give you money. This usually involves providing goods or services they think are worth the price. You may get a little wild and crazy from time to time, but you are always called to order by your customers.   In the market economy, consumers reign supreme. There is no such thing as a “lost” vote in the marketplace; every penny spent affects production. Mises noted: “Consumers...
  • warren-buffett-gold-coinGet Ready for a New Crisis – in Corporate Debt
      Imposter Dollar OUZILLY, France – We’re going back to basics here at the Diary. We’re getting everyone on the same page... learning together... connecting the dots... trying to figure out what is going on.   The new three dollar bill issued by the Apprehensive States of America.   We made a breakthrough when we identified the source of so many of today’s bizarre and grotesque trends. It’s the money – the new post-1971 dollar. This new dollar is green. You...
  • 4-ip-and-non-def-capital-goods-ordersThe Economy, the Stock Market and the Fed
      John Hussman on Recent Developments We always look forward to John Hussman's weekly missive on the markets. Some people say that he is a “permabear”, but we don't think that is a fair characterization. He is rightly wary of the stock market's historically extremely high valuation and the loose monetary policy driving the surge in asset prices.   The S&P 500 Index and the NYSE advance-decline line. Most market internals weakened steadily until early February 2016, but...
  • silkroadHanjin Marooning in San Pedro Bay
      Global Trade Reversal Expansions and contractions in global trade have played out over long secular trends for thousands of years.  The Silk Road, for example, was established by the Han Dynasty of China in 130 BC, and allowed for continuous trade between East and West for nearly 1,600 years.  In addition to economic trade, the Silk Road was also a conduit for culture and knowledge among its network of civilizations.   A map of the main ancient Silk Road - click to...
  • voltaireGreat Causes, a Sea of Debt and the 2017 Recession
      Great Cause NORMANDY, FRANCE – We continue our work with the bomb squad. Myth disposal is dangerous work: People love their myths more than they love life itself. They may kill for money. But they die for their religions, their governments, their clans... and their ideas.   Famous French hippie and author Voltaire. He wears the same sardonic grin in every painting, whether he's depicted at a young or an old age, doesn't matter. His real name was François-Marie Arouet; he...
  • wilsonand-morganThe Donald Versus Killary: War or Peace?
      War: A Warning from the Past Although history does not exactly repeat itself, it does provide parallels and sometimes quite ominous ones.  Such is the case with the current U.S. Presidential election and the one which occurred one hundred years earlier.   The Donald probably has the better slogan...   The dominating question which hung over the 1916 campaign was whether the country would remain neutral in regard to the horrific slaughter which was taking place on the...
  • hittite-leftoversA Rift in the Space-Time Continuum
      Weird and Unnatural NORMANDY, France – First, a quick look at the markets. The Dow bounced on Monday, recovering 239 points of the nearly 400 it lost on Friday. Why the comeback?   FOMC member Lael Brainard: her comments on Monday were touted as the “reason” for the stock market recovering half of Friday's losses. We suspect the real reason is the triple witching on Friday... Photo via twitter.com   The financial press has a ready answer: “Stocks gain...

Austrian Theory and Investment

Support Acting Man

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

j9TJzzN

350x200

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com