Historians of the Future

Every investor makes trading decisions based on what happened in the past – there is no other way. What really interests us is the future though. After all, what happens in the future ultimately determines investment success.

 

When in doubt, you can always try to reach the pasture…  In Human Action, Ludwig von Mises described stock market speculators as akin to “historians of the future”. This is without a doubt the most trenchant definition of speculators anyone has ever come up with. What Mises wanted to convey is that the skills of speculators are of a thymological nature, i.e.,  similar to historians, they have to be aware of the data and have to be able to apply “understanding” in order to be successful in their task. The meaning of understanding in this context is probably best explained by an example: a historian may look at the historical data known about an important historical figure, such as e.g. Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus,  best known by his nickname Cunctator (“the delayer” – this was originally meant to be an insult). One could simply list all the battles the Cunctator avoided, the guerrilla-type tactics he employed to harass Hannibal’s troops, the battles he decided to join, and so on. But a mere listing of these facts would do little to help us grasp his motives, his personality, the pressures he was subject to, his political goals, his influence on posterity, etc. This is where the historian’s real task begins. If he has the ability to impart a proper understanding of the man and his times, he has succeeded as a historian. The job of speculators is very similar: they have to know the data (which necessarily describe the past) and use understanding in order to so to speak paint an image of the market’s future history before their mind’s eye. And while this future-oriented faculty of understanding is a sine qua non for successful speculation (note that “speculation” actually encompasses all types of entrepreneurial activity, no negative connotation is implied by the term), it could not possibly be applied without knowledge of the data and patterns of the past. [PT]

 

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When Germany Was Great!

Ever since the start of the deliberately conceived “migrant crisis,” orchestrated by NWO elites, the news out of Germany has been, to say the least, horrific. Right before the eyes of the world, a country is being demographically destroyed through a coercive plan of mass migration.  The intended consequences of this – financial strain, widespread crime and property destruction, the breakdown of German culture – will continue to worsen if things are not turned around.

 

The Holy Roman Empire in 1789 AD. At the time, Germany was a patchwork of countless independent principalities, duchies, city states, bishoprics and other statelets. This was a glorious time, as citizens could very easily vote with their feet if they were unhappy with their rulers. Keep in mind, there were no such things as “passports” or “border controls” at the time. No-one even thought about such things – it would have been considered an inane notion. And although almost every statelet minted its own coins (displaying its own coat of arms and a portrait of its ruler), money was actually standardized across the entire region since the Middle Ages. Most of Germany used silver coins, which were minted according to standardized weights and sizes (gold coins were also used, but silver was more prevalent in day-to-day commerce). Thus all coins were accepted across the region, regardless of which principality or duchy had issued them. There were no tariffs either and no restrictions on cross-border investment. There was even a mechanism for reining in fiscally highly incompetent or plain crazy rulers through a supra-national arbitration body that only sprang into action upon special request (when such requests were deemed reasonable). Taxes as a rule didn’t exceed a level of 10%, as any attempt to impose higher taxes would lead to an exodus of people from the territory concerned. Not everything was perfect of course, but let us just note that despite a lack of democracy, there was no lack of freedom. Check out some of our previous articles on this topic for additional color: “Secession – An Alternative View” and “Are Nation States Beginning to Splinter?” [PT] – click to enlarge.

 

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Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

That’s it. It’s the final straw. One of the alternative investing newsletters had a headline that screamed, “Bitcoin Is About to Soar, But You Must Act by August 1 to Get In”. It was missing only the call to action “call 1-800-BIT-COIN now! That number again is 800 B.I.T..C.O.I.N.”

 

Bitcoin, daily. In terms of the gains recorded between the lows of 2009 and the recent highs (from less eight hundredths of a US cent per bitcoin, or $1 = 1,309.2 BTC, the first officially recorded value of BTC, to $3,000 per bitcoin, or $1 = 0.000333333 BTC), the bubble in bitcoin by now exceeds every historical precedent by several orders of magnitude, including the infamous Tulipomania and Kuwait’s Souk-al-Manakh bubble. In percentage terms BTC has increased by about 392,760,000% in dollar terms (more than 392 million percent) since its launch eight years ago. Comparable price increases have otherwise only occurred in hyperinflation scenarios in which the underlying currency was repudiated as a viable medium of exchange. Our view regarding its prior non-monetary use value and hence its potential to become money differs slightly from that presented by Keith below. We will post more details on this soon, for now we only want to point out that we believe there is room for further debate on this point. [PT] – click to enlarge.

 

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Views From the Top of the Skyscraper Index

On a warm Friday Los Angeles morning in spring of 2016, we found ourselves standing at the busy corner of Wilshire Boulevard and South Figueroa Street.  We were walking back to our office following a client wire brushing for events beyond our control.  But we had other thoughts on our mind.

 

Iron workers (the non-distraught variety) atop the 10 ton spire of the Wilshire Grand Center in Lost Angeles. This image is vaguely disconcerting… we can’t help thinking that an unexpected gust of wind  could have proven quite disruptive to this show of nonchalant equanimity. [PT]

Photo credit: Gary Leonard

 

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Global Monetary Architecture

The quarterly Incrementum Advisory Board meeting was held last week (the full transcript is available for download below). Our regulars Dr. Frank Shostak and Jim Rickards were unable to attend this time, but we were joined by special guest Luke Gromen of research house “Forest for the Trees” (FFTT; readers will find free samples of the FFTT newsletter at the site and in case you want to find the link again later, we have recently added it to our blog roll). Below we add a few remarks on a topic Luke Gromen is paying a great deal of attention to.

 

Special guest Luke Gromen of FFTT.

 

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Étatiste Crackpottery

Shortly after we posted Jayant Bhandari’s recent article that inter alia discussed  the new complex GST (general sales tax) regime introduced in India by the Modi government (see “The Lunatics Have Taken Over the Asylum” for details), we were contacted by Lakshminarayanan Kumaraapuram, a small businessman in Mumbai. He asked us whether we would be prepared to publish a comment he originally mailed to the prime minister’s “grievance portal”, so as to transform it into an open letter.

 

Let’s keep it simple… but not too simple. The chief surgeon gets ready to wield his scalpels and cleavers.

 

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A Shift in Perception – Indians in Silicon Valley

When I was studying in the UK in early 90s, I was often asked about cows, elephants and snake-charmers on the roads in India.  A shift in public perception— not in the associated reality — was however starting to happen. India would soon become known for its vibrant IT industry.

 

Friends and family are helping students taking university exams with cheating. 2.5 million candidates, many of them with PhDs or post-graduates, recently applied for 6,000 of the lowest level job positions (“grade D”) available in West Bengal, which require no more than an early-stage school education. While India produces the largest number of PhDs, engineers, etc. in the world, the educational system is in reality in a shambles and a complete joke. Most of these people are in fact unemployable. [The incredible scene above took place in Bihar and is explained in greater detail here. Relatives of students are scaling the walls of the examination center to pass on cheat sheets to their offspring. Policemen who were supposed to guard examination buildings were often bribed to look the other way. A total of 6 to 7 million people across India were estimated to provide  cheating assistance. [PT]]

Photo credit: Dipankar

 

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The Antidote

Something needs to be said. We are against the existence of irredeemable paper currency, central banking and central planning, cronyism, socialized losses and privatized gains, counterfeit credit, wealth transfers and bailouts, and welfare both corporate and personal.

 

A few slices of the cause-effect merry-go-round in fiat money land… (by no means the complete picture). [PT]

 

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Goods and Services Tax, and Gold (Part XV)

Below is a scene from anti-GST protests by traders in the Indian city of Surat. On 1st  July 2017, India changed the way it imposes indirect taxes. As a result, there has been massive chaos around the country. Many businesses are closed for they don’t know what taxes apply to them, or how to do the paperwork. Factories are shut, and businesses are protesting.

 


A massive anti-GST protest in Surat  [PT]

 

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What Constitution?

One of the many downfalls of being the United States Secretary of the Treasury is the requirement to place one’s autograph on the face of the Federal Reserve’s legal tender notes. There, on public display, is an overt record of a critical defect.  A signature endorsement of a Federal Reserve note by the Treasury Secretary represents their personal ratification of unconstitutional money.

 

 

 

There it is, plain as day. The former treasury secretary clearly put his signature on money with highly dubious legal credentials. Evidently he must have found it agreeable though. [PT]

 

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The Looming Last Gasp of Indoctrination?

The inevitable collapse of the student loan “market” and with it the take-down of many higher educational institutions will be one of the happiest and much needed events to look forward to in the coming months/years.  Whether the student loan bubble bursts on its own or implodes due to a general economic collapse, does not matter as long as higher education is dealt a death blow and can no longer be a conduit of socialist and egalitarian nonsense for the inculcation of young minds.

 

Complain… declare bankruptcy… think for food… occupy… Decisions, decisions. [PT]

 

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Old Truism

Readers are surely aware of the saying “sell in May and go away”. It is one of the best-known and oldest stock market truisms.

And the saying is justified. In my article “Sell in May and Go Away – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So” in the May 01 2017 issue of Seasonal Insights I examined the so-called Halloween effect in great detail. The result: in just two out of eleven international stock markets does it make sense to invest during the summer months.

 

October meetings after you forgot to sell in May [PT]

 

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