Smoke Signals

Gold went up by 33 of the Master’s Notes, but silver went up only 22 of the His Cents.

 

Decrepit though he may be… it’s still his funny money, and he always wants more of it. [PT]

 

The rising gold-silver ratio is one thing we add to others that signal the not-good economy. Silver has industrial uses, but gold basically does not. So a rising ratio shows rising monetary demand relative to industrial demand.

Copper, remember when everyone heralded copper as either a signal of rising inflation or a growing economy? What a difference three months and 36 cents makes. Now, with a falling price and a 2-handle once again, copper is predicting neither.

Add a protracted tumble in stocks, rising interest rates – especially a growing spread between the interbank rate and the comparable-duration Treasury –  and you have a picture of an economy stumbling once again. Or perhaps something more serious, we shall see.

Silver bugs may be forgiven their enthusiasm to buy the white metal in preference to the yellow, at this gold-silver ratio. From a historical perspective, they are likely to do well with the trade.

However, those who claim that silver has outperformed gold as smoking something, and we mean of the sort that President Trump would like to execute the dealer who sold it to them. By definition, for the ratio to rise from about 31 in 2011, to its present well over 81, silver has underperformed gold. Massively.

 

Fundamental Developments – Fundamental Gold Price at 3 Year High

Let’s take a look at the only true picture of the supply and demand fundamentals for the metals. But first, here is the chart of the prices of gold and silver.

 

Gold and silver priced in USD

 

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio (see here for an explanation of bid and offer prices for the ratio). The ratio rose about another point.

 

Gold-silver ratio, bid and offer

 

Here is the gold graph showing gold basis, co-basis and the price of the dollar in terms of gold price.

 

Gold basis, co-basis and the USD priced in milligrams of gold

 

There is a big change in the dollar, down 0.7mg gold (the opposite of gold going up as measured by the Master’s Notes). But with this rise, we see little increase in the metal’s abundance to the market. This is a sign of fundamental buying, of metal not of futures.

The Monetary Metals Gold Fundamental Price rose $21 this week, to $1,440. This is the highest in exactly three years.

Now let’s look at silver.

 

Silver basis, co-basis and the USD priced in grams of silver

 

In silver, there is a bigger drop in the scarcity (red line, co-basis) while silver went up less in terms of MN’s. The absolute level of the co-basis is much higher, but this is partly due to the nearer expiration of the May silver contract (vs June gold contract). The silver basis continuous is higher than the gold basis continuous.

 

Unsurprisingly, the Monetary Metals Silver Fundamental Price fell 9 cents to $17.27. We could see a gold-silver ratio at 83 if this keeps up.

 

© 2018 Monetary Metals

 

Charts by: Monetary Metals

 

Chart and image captions by PT

 

Dr. Keith Weiner is the president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, and CEO of Monetary Metals. Keith is a leading authority in the areas of gold, money, and credit and has made important contributions to the development of trading techniques founded upon the analysis of bid-ask spreads. Keith is a sought after speaker and regularly writes on economics. He is an Objectivist, and has his PhD from the New Austrian School of Economics. He lives with his wife near Phoenix, Arizona.

 

 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Venezuela – An Economic Catastrophe in Charts
      The Final Stage of a Crack-Up Boom For economists the dire downward spiral of Venezuela's economy holds the same fascination black holes hold for physicists. Both illustrate what happens amid the most extreme conditions imaginable. It is thought that this may potentially provide clues of a more general nature. The remnants of massive imploded stars are inanimate and many light years distant; regardless of how violent conditions in their vicinity are, they cannot touch us. Unfortunately,...
  • The Degrading Facts of a Fake Money Hole in the Head
      Squishy Fact Finding Mission Today we begin with the facts.  But not just the facts; the facts of the facts.  We want to better understand just what it is that is provoking today’s ludicrous world. To clarify, we are not after the cold hard facts; those with no opinions, like the commutative property of addition. Rather, we are after the warm squishy facts; the type of facts that depend on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.   Fact-related pleas... [PT]   The facts,...
  • Thirteen Reckonings Hanging in the Balance
      A Fake Money World The NASDAQ slipped below 8,000 this week. But you can table your reservations.  The record bull market in U.S. stocks is still on. With a little imagination, and the assistance of crude chart projections, DOW 40,000 could be eclipsed by the end of the decade.  Remember, anything and everything’s possible with enough fake money.   Driven by a handful of big cap tech companies, the Nasdaq Composite has made new highs – but the broad market (here shown in...
  • Jayant Bhandari - The US Dollar vs. Other Currencies and Gold
      Maurice Jackson Speaks with Jayant Bhandari About Emerging Market Currencies, the Trade War, US Foreign Policy and More Maurice Jackson of Proven & Probable has recently conducted a new interview with our friend and occasional contributor to this site, Jayant Bhandari, who is inter alia the host of the annual Capitalism and Morality seminar.   Maurice Jackson (left) and Jayant Bhandari (right)   A wide range of topics is discussed, from the strong US dollar and...
  • Gold-Silver Ratio Message - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Fundamental Developments Last week the price of gold fell three bucks, and that of silver fell a quarter of a buck. But let us take a look at the supply and demand fundamentals of both metals. Also, we have an interesting development in the gold-silver ratio, a topic we have not addressed in a while. First, here is the chart of the prices of gold and silver.   Gold and silver priced in USD   Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise...
  • US Equities – Approaching an Inflection Point
      A Lengthy Non-Confirmation As we have frequently pointed out in recent months, since beginning to rise from the lows of the sharp but brief downturn after the late January blow-off high, the US stock market is bereft of uniformity. Instead, an uncommonly lengthy non-confirmation between the the strongest indexes and the broad market has been established. The chart below illustrates the situation – it compares the performance of the DJIA (still no new high since January, although...
  • September – The Most Dangerous Month to Invest
      The Biggest Crashes in History Happened in September and October In the last installment of Seasonal Insights we wrote about the media sector – an industry that typically tends to perform very poorly in the month of August. Upon receiving positive feedback, we decided to build on this topic. This week we are are discussing several international markets that tend to be weak during September and will look at what drives this recurring pattern.   Mark Twain, a renowned...
  • Honest Work for Dishonest Pay
      Misadventures and Mishaps Over the past decade, in the wake of the 2008-09 debt crisis, the impossible has happened.  The sickness of too much debt has been seemingly cured with massive dosages of even more debt.  This, no doubt, is evidence that there are wonders and miracles above and beyond 24-hour home deliveries of Taco Bell via Door Dash.   The global debtberg: at the end of 2017, it had grown to USD 237 trillion. Obviously this is by now a slightly dated figure, as debt...
  • Gold-Silver Ratio Hits 10-Year High - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Fundamental Developments The price of gold dropped five bucks, and that of silver 40 cents last week. But let’s take a look at the supply and demand fundamentals of both metals. Also, we continue to follow the development in the gold-silver ratio.   One can buy a lot of silver for one's gold these days. Silver has become extraordinarily cheap, but keep in mind that it was even cheaper vs. gold in the early 1990s (see the section on silver further below for the details)....
  • Corporate Credit – A Chasm Between Risk Perceptions and Actual Risk
      Shifts in Credit-Land: Repatriation Hurts Small Corporate Borrowers A recent Bloomberg article informs us that US companies with large cash hoards (such as AAPL and ORCL) were sizable players in corporate debt markets, supplying plenty of funds to borrowers in need of US dollars. Ever since US tax cuts have prompted repatriation flows, a “$300 billion-per-year hole” has been left in the market, as Bloomberg puts it. The chart below depicts the situation as of the end of August (not...
  • Dubious Prophecies & Perverse Incentives - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Suspect Predictions, Ill Wishes and Worthwhile Targets of Scorn This price of gold fell three bucks, and the price of silver fell ten cents last week. Perhaps because of the ongoing $150 price drop so far since April, we saw some doozy email subjects and article headlines this week.   Panic on the inflation Titanic. [PT]   One notable one, from the man who confidently asserted we will have hyperinflation by the end of the year — in 2009 — now says that the...
  • Gold and Gold Stocks – Small Rays of Light in the Vale of Tears
      A Rebound Gets Underway – Will It Have Legs? Ever since the gold indexes have broken below the shelf of support that has held them aloft since late 2016 (around 165-170 points in the HUI Index), the sector was not much to write home about, to put it mildly. Precious metals stocks will continue to battle the headwinds of institutional tax loss selling until the end of October, to be followed by the not-quite-as-strong headwinds of individual tax loss selling in the final weeks of the...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

Austrian Theory and Investment

j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Archive

Dog Blow

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com