Back to the Happy Place Amid a Falling Dollar

The prices of the metals dropped this week, $24 and $0.38. This could be because the asset markets have returned to their happy, happy place where every day the stock market ticks up relentlessly.


Sometimes, happiness is fleeting… – click to enlarge.


The major currencies have been rising all year—we insist that this is a rise in these dollar derivatives, not a fall in the dollar—and this is a risk-on pattern. Borrow dollars, sell dollars, buy another currency to buy an asset and pocket (A) the yield of the asset, (B) the rise in price of that asset, and (C) the rise in the currency.

The dollar has been falling this year. You can’t measure it in terms of its derivatives such as euro. You can measure it in terms of gold. Here is a chart, showing the drop in the dollar, from about 27 milligrams at the start of January to 23.5mg on Friday. The dollar has fallen about 13%.


The bid on the dollar in milligrams of gold and grams of silver. Down it went this year… – click to enlarge.


Precious Metals – Fundamental Developments

Will the dollar fall further? As always, we are interested in the fundamentals of supply and demand as measured by the basis. But first, here are the charts of the prices of gold and silver, and the gold-silver ratio.


Gold and silver prices in USD terms – click to enlarge.


Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio rose a bit.


In this graph, we show both bid and offer prices for the gold-silver ratio. If you were to sell gold on the bid and buy silver at the ask, that is the lower bid price. Conversely, if you sold silver on the bid and bought gold at the offer, that is the higher offer price.


Gold-silver ratio, bid and offer – click to enlarge.


For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and co-basis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and co-basis in red.


Here is the gold graph.


October gold basis, co-basis and the dollar priced in milligrams of gold – click to enlarge.


This is the October contract, which is under selling pressure (pushing down basis and up co-basis). This week, the moves in the basis and co-basis are due to this contract roll process (see the continuous gold basis chart here). The dollar rose somewhat (the inverse of the falling price of gold).

Our calculated Monetary Metals gold fundamental price dropped $9, to $1,370.

Now let’s look at silver.


September silver basis and co-basis and the dollar priced in grams of silver – click to enlarge.


In silver, being the December contract which is farther away, it’s clearer. There was little move in the basis (around 0.07%) as the price of the dollar went up / price of silver went down.

Our calculated Monetary Metals silver fundamental price fell $0.50 to $17.38.


© 2017 Monetary Metals


Charts by: Monetary Metals


Chart and image captions by PT


Dr. Keith Weiner is the president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, and CEO of Monetary Metals. Keith is a leading authority in the areas of gold, money, and credit and has made important contributions to the development of trading techniques founded upon the analysis of bid-ask spreads. Keith is a sought after speaker and regularly writes on economics. He is an Objectivist, and has his PhD from the New Austrian School of Economics. He lives with his wife near Phoenix, Arizona.




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