Crypto-Statistics

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have discussed how the S&P 500 Index performs on individual days of the week. In this issue I will show an analysis of the average cumulative annual returns of bitcoin on individual days of the week.

 

Bitcoin, daily. While this is beside the point, we note the crypto-currency (and other “alt coins” as well) has minor performance issues lately. The white line indicates important lateral support, but this looks to us like it could be the beginning of a higher degree correction, mainly because it so far proceeds with greater verve than previous corrections over the past year. Besides, the recent rally in this trading sardine seems rather stretched, and the term stretched by itself actually sounds  a bit inadequate as a descriptor. It needs an adverb… insanely might do. [PT] – click to enlarge.

 

It seems to me that bitcoin is particularly interesting for this type of study: it exhibits spectacular price gains, its is a very new instrument and it is unregulated. Moreover, it trades around the clock, even on weekends.

Given this setup, I found myself wondering: do prices rise uniformly? And does their performance on weekends differ from that on workdays?

 

Bitcoin: the Action Mainly Takes Place at the Beginning of the Week

The first chart below shows the annualized performance of bitcoin since 2011 in black, as well as the cumulative annualized performance on individual days of the week in blue.

Note: due to the extent of the rally to date, the compounding effect is particularly strong; the average cumulative returns achieved on individual days of the week therefore don’t add up linearly to the total annualized return of bitcoin. I have inserted a break in the black column and the scale of the y-axis in order to improve the clarity of the chart.

 

Bitcoin,  performance by individual days of the week, 2011 to 2017.  On Fridays and Saturdays the average gain in bitcoin was negligible.

 

As the chart shows, the beginning of the week is standing out quite noticeably: if one had invested exclusively on Mondays, an annual return of 39.30 percent would have been attained. The cumulative gain achieved on Tuesdays was even stronger at 59.68 percent.

By contrast, the average return of 0.56% achieved on Friday was essentially irrelevant. In short, even in bitcoin there were days of the week which on average generated almost no gain.  Moreover, Saturdays, and by the standards of bitcoin also Sundays and Wednesdays, were rather boring days as well.

The difference in the average annual returns achieved on individual days of the week –  measured over no less than 2,333 trading days – is quite significant. This suggests that it is highly unlikely to be a random pattern.

Next we will take a look at the evolution of these trends over time in detail.

 

The Days of the Week Under the Microscope

The next chart shows the performance of bitcoin since 2011 in black, as well as the cumulative return achieved on every individual day of the week in other colors –  indexed to 100.

 

Bitcoin, cumulative returns by day of the week, 2011 – 2017, indexed.  Tuesday is the clear winner – click to enlarge.

 

As the chart shows, Tuesday (yellow line) was well ahead of the pack from the very beginning. By contrast, Monday initially performed poorly, but later caught up rapidly, especially after 2012. Fridays and Saturdays were boring days for bitcoin traders throughout the entire period.

 

What Causes Bitcoin to Rally at the Beginning of the Week?

The results of this study underscore that even a very young market that has experienced extraordinary price gains (for which normally a great many trading days should be required), exhibits very conspicuous statistical anomalies.

How can these anomalies be explained? My theory is that many people interested in bitcoin arrive at the decision to make a purchase over weekends. These decisions are then implemented at the beginning of the week. The first purchases are made on Mondays. On Tuesdays those who were waiting for confirmation from rising prices follow suit and buy as well. Thereafter the action tails off until the beginning of the next week.

 

The Case of Bitcoin Highlights that Exploitable Market Discrepancies Exist

What do the statistical anomalies in bitcoin tell us generally about investing in financial markets?

Contrary to what some theories assert, efficient markets do not exist in the real world. Human habits, regulations or manipulation can result in recurring disparities in price patterns. Statistical oddities such as those in bitcoin discussed above and many other such patterns can be quickly found with the help of the Seasonax app on Bloomberg or Thomson-Reuters systems; they exist in stock markets, currencies and commodities as well. Don’t let the apostles of the efficient market hypothesis keep you from taking advantage of them.

 

Charts by: Cryptowatch, Seasonax

 

Image captions by PT where indicated

 

Dimitri Speck specializes in pattern recognition and trading systems development. He is the founder of Seasonax, the company which created the Seasonax app for the Bloomberg and Thomson-Reuters systems. He also publishes the website www.SeasonalCharts.com, which features selected seasonal charts for interested investors free of charge. In his book The Gold Cartel (published by Palgrave Macmillan), Dimitri provides a unique perspective on the history of gold price manipulation, government intervention in markets and the vast credit excesses of recent decades. His ground-breaking work on intraday patterns in gold prices was inter alia used by financial supervisors to gather evidence on the manipulation of the now defunct gold and silver fix method in London. His Stay-C commodities trading strategy won several awards in Europe; it was the best-performing quantitative commodities fund ever listed on a German exchange. For detailed information on the Seasonax app click here (n.b., subscriptions through Acting Man qualify for a special discount).

 

 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • The Gold Sector Remains at an Interesting Juncture
      Technical Divergence Successfully Maintained In an update on gold and gold stocks in mid June, we pointed out that a number of interesting divergences had emerged which traditionally represent a heads-up indicating a trend change is close (see: Divergences Emerge for the details). We did so after a big down day in the gold price, which actually helped set up the bullish divergence; this may have felt counter-intuitive, but these set-ups always do. Consider now the updated chart below...
  • Confronting the Dragon with Peter Navarro
      Of No Real Use A young man might go to business school believing he is obtaining some sort of academic training that will enable him to make a comfortable living.  His degree may gain him entry into a large corporation, where he can work his way up to a good income.  This may even put him on the fast track to what he envisions as success.   Don't knock it: Being useless can lead to unexpected career opportunities... [PT]   But his academic training likely won't...
  • Trouble in Paradise
      Impressive Zeal for Faded Ideals Uncompromising independence, rugged individualism, and limitless personal freedom were once essential to the American character.  According to popular American folklore, they still are.  We have some reservations.   Rugged individualists suffer mid-life identity crisis. [PT]   The principles that gave rise to the American character died long ago.  Freedom.  Liberty.  Independence.  Limited representative government. Sound...
  • The United States of Terror
      Bombs Away! Two recent articles* have again demonstrated that the greatest “terrorist” entity on earth are not the bogymen – Russia, China, Iran, North Korea – so often portrayed by Western presstitutes and the American government, but the United States itself!   This is an old cartoon, but still a good one. It perfectly describes the trigger-happy Western political class and the depth of its “thinking”. By happenstance we recently reviewed the Libya intervention...
  • Gold – Macroeconomic Fundamentals Improve
      A Beginning Shift in Gold Fundamentals A previously outright bearish fundamental backdrop for gold has recently become slightly more favorable. Ironically, the arrival of this somewhat more favorable situation was greeted by a pullback in physical demand and a decline in the gold price, after both had defied bearish fundamentals for many months by remaining stubbornly firm.   The eternal popularity contest...   The list of gold fundamentals that have improved is...
  • Capitulation and Currency Pain - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Waving the White Flag The price of gold rose two bucks last week, though the price of silver fell 10 cents. We have seen several analyses recently predicting big price drops, in one case by at least $500 in gold by the end of the year. Is this what capitulation looks like? It’s said they don’t ring a bell at the top, but they don’t ring a bell at the bottom either.   The give-up moment arrives... [PT]   We have also seen technical analysis arguing that...
  • Maurice Jackson Interviews Rick Rule – Investing in Natural Resources
      Contrarian Investment Opportunities in Natural Resources Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable has recently interviewed Sprott U.S. Holdings CEO Rick Rule, a well known specialist and “old hand” in the natural resource space. This is quite a wide-ranging and interesting interview, so we decided to present it to our readers. Below you find a summary and our comments on the main topics discussed, a video/podcast of the interview,  as well as a download link to a PDF file of the...
  • Black Holes for Capital - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Race to the Bottom Last week the price of gold fell $17, and that of silver $0.30. Why? We can tell you about the fundamentals. We can show charts of the basis. But we can’t get into the heads of the sellers.   Other people's fiat: in the global race to the bottom, it was recently the turn of emerging market currencies to tank. [PT]   We can say that in the mainstream view, the dollar is rising. The dollar, in their view, is not measured in gold but in rupees in...
  • The True Sport of MAGA
      Chest Bumps One of the more extraordinary things that investors have seen in living memory is unfolding at this precise moment. This goes for business leaders, money managers, veteran Wall Streeters, value investors, 401(k) holders, momentum traders, FX guys, gold bugs, technical gurus, chartists, pork belly speculators, quants, astrologists, Larry Summers, put option sellers, dweebs and geeks, millennial index fund enthusiasts, and everyone in between.   Pork belly speculators...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Dog Blow

Austrian Theory and Investment

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com