Systematic Trading Based on Statistics

Trading methods based on statistics represent an unusual approach for many investors. Evaluation of a security’s fundamental merits is not of concern, even though it can of course be done additionally. Rather, the only important criterion consists of typical price patterns determined by statistical examination of past trends.

 

Fundamental considerations such as the valuation of stocks are not really relevant to the statistics-based trading approach discussed here. This is not to say that they are not important as such – one should certainly be aware of the fundamental backdrop. The point is only that strategies based on e.g. seasonality have a different focus.

 

Systematic trading on the basis of statistical evidence will improve the odds of generating profits. Trading based on seasonality does in fact represent such a statistically substantiated trading approach.

 

Seasonality Helps with Stock Selection

Everybody has probably heard about the end-of-year rally phenomenon by now. It affects the majority of stocks during the same time period, namely in the final weeks of the year.

However, many people are probably unaware that individual stocks display unique seasonal patterns as well.

Look at the following seasonal chart in this context. It shows the seasonal chart pattern of  Novo Nordisk, a Danish health care company, over the past 15 years.

 

Novo Nordisk, seasonal chart pattern over the past 15 years. Novo Nordisk exhibits a unique seasonal price pattern.

 

As the chart shows, Novo Nordisk is subject to a particularly strong seasonal uptrend between the end of January and the beginning of March – the time period highlighted in blue. Thereafter, a slightly upwardly skewed sideways trend ensues that lasts until October, followed by an autumn rally.

The phase highlighted in blue is particularly interesting, as large gains are generated in a very short period of time. This rally phase is a unique feature of Novo Nordisk – most other stocks do not display similar seasonal strength during this time period.

 

Following Right on the Heels of Novo Nordisk: Adidas

Individual seasonal patterns can be observed in other stocks as well. The next chart shows the typical seasonal pattern exhibited by Adidas, a well-known German sports equipment manufacturer.

 

Adidas, seasonal chart pattern over the past 15 years. The stock price of Adidas typically rises in the spring and at the end of the year.  

 

As can be seen, Adidas also surges strongly in the spring – the time period is once again highlighted in blue on the chart. As a closer look reveals though, Adidas starts to move up just as the seasonal rally in Novo Nordisk is petering out.

This suggests that it would make sense to sell Novo Nordisk in early March and replace it with Adidas. In this way one can systematically improve the odds of generating profits, buttressed by strong statistical evidence.

Once the period of unusual seasonal strength for Adidas ends, one moves on to the next stock selected by this method, then the next one, and so forth.

 

Conclusion

I am strongly convinced that trading strategies based on seasonal trends in individual securities still offer plenty of unexploited potential to generate outperformance.

 

Charts by: Wolfstreet, Seasonax

 

Edited by PT

 

Dimitri Speck specializes in pattern recognition and trading systems development. He founded Seasonax and publishes the website www.SeasonalCharts.com, which features free-of-charge seasonal charts for interested investors. In his book The Gold Cartel (published by Palgrave Macmillan, see link on the right hand side), commodities expert Dimitri Speck discusses gold price manipulation and modern-day credit excess. His commodities trading strategy Stay-C has won awards all over Europe. He is the publisher of the web site Seasonal Charts as well as of the Bloomberg app Seasonax and Head Analyst of the 90 Tage Trader Letter.

 

 
 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Can Germany Be Made Great Again?
      When Germany Was Great! Ever since the start of the deliberately conceived “migrant crisis,” orchestrated by NWO elites, the news out of Germany has been, to say the least, horrific. Right before the eyes of the world, a country is being demographically destroyed through a coercive plan of mass migration.  The intended consequences of this – financial strain, widespread crime and property destruction, the breakdown of German culture – will continue to worsen if things are not...
  • Yanking the Bank of Japan’s Chain
      Mathematical Certainties Based on the simple reflection that arithmetic is more than just an abstraction, we offer a modest observation.  The social safety nets of industrialized economies, including the United States, have frayed at the edges.  Soon the safety net’s fabric will snap. This recognition is not an opinion.  Rather, it’s a matter of basic arithmetic.  The economy cannot sustain the government obligations that have been piled up upon it over the last 70...
  • Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q3 2017
      Global Monetary Architecture The quarterly Incrementum Advisory Board meeting was held last week (the full transcript is available for download below). Our regulars Dr. Frank Shostak and Jim Rickards were unable to attend this time, but we were joined by special guest Luke Gromen of research house “Forest for the Trees” (FFTT; readers will find free samples of the FFTT newsletter at the site and in case you want to find the link again later, we have recently added it to our blog roll)....
  • Views From the Top of the Skyscraper Index
      Views From the Top of the Skyscraper Index On a warm Friday Los Angeles morning in spring of 2016, we found ourselves standing at the busy corner of Wilshire Boulevard and South Figueroa Street.  We were walking back to our office following a client wire brushing for events beyond our control.  But we had other thoughts on our mind.   Iron workers (the non-distraught variety) atop the 10 ton spire of the Wilshire Grand Center in Lost Angeles. This image is vaguely...
  • Bitcoin, Gold and Silver
      Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report That’s it. It’s the final straw. One of the alternative investing newsletters had a headline that screamed, “Bitcoin Is About to Soar, But You Must Act by August 1 to Get In". It was missing only the call to action “call 1-800-BIT-COIN now! That number again is 800 B.I.T..C.O.I.N.”   Bitcoin, daily. In terms of the gains recorded between the lows of 2009 and the recent highs (from less eight hundredths of a US cent per...
  • Prepare for Another Market Face Pounding
      “Better than Goldilocks” “Markets make opinions,” goes the old Wall Street adage.  Indeed, this sounds like a nifty thing to say.  But what does it really mean?   The bears discover Mrs. Locks in their bed and it seems they are less than happy. [PT]   Perhaps this means that after a long period of rising stocks prices otherwise intelligent people conceive of clever explanations for why the good times will carry on.  Moreover, if the market goes up for...
  • Seasonality: Will Patterns that Worked in the Past Also Work in the Future?
      Historians of the Future Every investor makes trading decisions based on what happened in the past – there is no other way. What really interests us is the future though. After all, what happens in the future ultimately determines investment success.   When in doubt, you can always try to reach the pasture...  In Human Action, Ludwig von Mises described stock market speculators as akin to “historians of the future”. This is without a doubt the most trenchant definition of...
  • Bitcoin Forked – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      A Fork in the Cryptographic Road So bitcoin forked. You did not know this. Well, if you’re saving in gold perhaps not. If you’re betting in the crypto-coin casino, you knew it, bet on it, and now we assume are happily diving into your greater quantity of dollars after the fork.   Bitcoin, daily – adding the current price of BCH (the new type of Bitcoin all holders of BTC can claim at a 1:1 ratio), the gain since the “fork” amounts to roughly $1,000 at the time we...
  • What Went Wrong With the 21st Century?
      Fools and Rascals   And it’s time, time, time And it’s time, time, time It’s time, time, time that you love And it’s time, time, time… - Tom  Waits   Tom Waits rasps about time   POITOU, FRANCE – “So how much did you make last night?” “We made about $15,000,” came the reply from our eldest son, a keen cryptocurrency investor. “Bitcoin briefly pierced the $3,500 mark – an all-time high. The market cap of the...
  • Czar vs. Pope
      Vladimir the Great Sums Up Pope Francis the Fake Vladimir Putin has once again demonstrated why he is the most perceptive, farsighted, and for a politician, the most honest world leader to come around in quite a while.  If it had not been for his patient and wise statesmanship, the world may have already been embroiled in an all-encompassing global conflagration with the possibility of thermonuclear destruction.   Vladimir Putin is sizing up Pope Francis with his “good...
  • Bitcoin Has No Yield, but Gold Does – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      Bitcoin and Credit Transactions Last week, we said:   It is commonly accepted to say the dollar is “printed”, but we can see from this line of thinking it is really borrowed. There is a real borrower on the other side of the transaction, and that borrower has powerful motivations to keep paying to service the debt. Bitcoin has no backing. Bitcoin is created out of thin air, the way people say of the dollar. The quantity of bitcoins created may be strictly limited by...
  • Is Historically Low Volatility About to Expand?
      Suspicion Asleep You have probably noticed it already: stock market volatility has recently all but disappeared. This raises an important question for every investor: Has the market established a permanent plateau of low volatility, or is the current period of low volatility just the calm before the storm?   All quiet on the VIX front... what can possibly happen? [PT] - click to enlarge.   When such questions regarding future market trends arise, it is often...

Support Acting Man

j9TJzzN

Austrian Theory and Investment

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com