To Unleash or Not to Unleash, That is the Question…

LOVINGSTON, VIRGINIA –  Corporate earnings have been going down for nearly three years. They are now about 10% below the level set in the late summer of 2014. Why should stocks be so expensive?

 

Example of something that one should better not unleash. The probability that a win-lose proposition will develop upon meeting it seems high. It wins, because it gets to eat…

Image credit: Urs Hagen

 

Oh, yes… because the Trump Team is going to light a fire under Wall Street. But they must be wondering about that, too. Raising up stock prices – as we’ve seen over the last eight years – is not the same as restoring economic growth and family incomes.

And as each day passes, the list of odds against either seems to be getting longer and longer. As the petty fights, silly squabbles, and tweet storms increase, the less ammunition the administration has available to fight a real battle with Congress or the Deep State.

Still – “Goldman Stock Hits Record on Bets Trump Will Unleash Wall Street,” reads a Bloomberg headline. Goldman Sachs is a pillar of the Establishment, with its man, Steve Mnuchin, heading the Department of the Treasury. So a win for Goldman is not necessarily a win for us.

“Unleashing” suggests a win-win deal, as in allowing the financial industry to get on with its business. But there are different kinds of “unleashings.” Some things – like Dobermans – are kept on a leash for a good reason. Unleashing the mob… or a war… might not be a good idea, either.

Untying Wall Street from bureaucratic rules is at least heading in the right direction. But it will only benefit the Main Street economy if Wall Street is doing business honestly, facilitating win-win deals by matching real capital up with worthy projects.

 

A chart of the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 Index components recently shown by John Hussman. We conclude that Wall Street was “unleashed” long before Mr. Trump appeared on the political scene. But why this should be considered bad? Haven’t those riding this market to such absurd levels of overvaluation made out like bandits? Why not be happy for them and leave it at that? Unfortunately, it is not that simple. Let us  consider just two problems. 1. Titles to capital only become extremely overvalued when the money supply and interest rates have been tampered with. These valuations are a symptom of extreme shifts in relative prices in the economy – they prove ipso facto that large amounts of scarce capital have been and continue to be malinvested. All of society will pay a price for this. 2. From the perspective of all market participants, whether investing is their job, or whether they are only indirectly exposed to the market through e.g. a pension fund, there will be no winners once the music stops. When an investor takes a profit, someone else must buy from him. Regardless of the trend in prices, there are no “unowned” stocks floating about in the ether. There is no way the class of investors as a whole can escape the eventual losses. Even worse, when prices retreat, the debt that has been incurred on the way up – from margin debt to the debt companies have taken up to buy back overpriced stocks – is not going to shrink with them – click to enlarge.

 

Deep State Industry

That, of course, is what it is NOT doing. It is a Deep State industry aided and abetted by the Fed’s fake money. The “capital” (really, money out of thin air) it helps allocate is fraudulent – provided to the elite at preferential rates by the Fed banking cartel.

That leads to a whole host of fraudulent transactions, losing propositions, and win-lose deals. The public has to borrow money at twice the interest rates of the elite in business, finance, and government. Why? The risk is lower.

If Goldman or GM gets into financial trouble – even with their favored lending rates – the feds bail them out. If the man in the street is unable to pay his mortgage, he loses his house.

This unfairness is at the heart of today’s economic system. It’s also the source of the discontent felt – but maybe not fully understood – by the masses and the current administration.

 

Dr. Fed explains to J6P how it works.

Cartoon by Rick McKee

 

Fraudulent System

The typical household has less earned income today than when the century began. It should have been the biggest, most successful period in human history.

Why are American wages sagging?

After all, the number of patents has exploded. So has the pace of technological innovation. The number of people with advanced college degrees, too.

Meanwhile, the feds have pumped $37 trillion in excess credit – above and beyond the traditional relationship between debt and GDP – into the system over the last 30 years. And corporations are more flushed with cash than ever before…

So, how come an economy with more technology than ever before, with more trained workers than ever before, with more “capital” available than ever before –

lowers household incomes, grows at only roughly half the rate of the 1960s and 1970s and registers the weakest “recovery” in history? How come?

 

As noted above, some things should better not be unleashed… Nixon probably didn’t even realize what he had let loose when he defaulted on the gold exchange standard. But that’s precisely the problem, whether it’s politicians or bureaucrats, every time they tinker with the monetary system in grand style, they have actually no idea what they are doing. One thing is clear beyond doubt though – a system characterized by constant inflation of money and credit benefits a small group to the detriment of everybody else – click to enlarge.

 

Globalization, Mexico, regulation, China, automation, inequality, financialization – they all have been blamed. But you know the real answer: because the money system is counterfeit.

It benefits the elite of Washington and Wall Street, but not the rest of us. And “unleashing” Wall Street – without a return to honest money – means allowing this Deep State beast to prey even more on average Americans.

 

Charts by John Hussman, St. Louis Federal Reserve Research

 

Chart and image captions by PT

 

The above article originally appeared as “Should Trump “Unleash” Wall Street?at the Diary of a Rogue Economist, written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

 


 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • How to Buy Low When Everyone Else is Buying High
      When to Sell? The common thread running through the collective minds of present U.S. stock market investors goes something like this: A great crash is coming.  But first there will be an epic run-up climaxing with a massive parabolic blow off top.  Hence, to capitalize on the final blow off, investors must let their stock market holdings ride until the precise moment the market peaks – and not a moment more.  That’s when investors should sell their stocks and go to...
  • What Kind of Stock Market Purge Is This?
      Actions and Reactions Down markets, like up markets, are both dazzling and delightful. The shock and awe of near back-to-back 1,000 point Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) free-falls is indeed spectacular. There are many reasons to revel in it.  Today we shall share a few. To begin, losing money in a multi-day stock market dump is no fun at all.  We'd rather get our teeth drilled by a dentist.  Still, a rapid selloff has many positive qualities.   Memorable moments from...
  • Monetary Metals Brief 2018
      Short and Long Term Forecasts Predicting the likely path of the prices of the metals in the near term is easy. Just look at the fundamentals. We have invested many man-years in developing the theory, model, and software to calculate it. Every week we publish charts and our calculated fundamental prices.   A selection of 1 and ½ ounce gold bars – definitely more fondle-friendly than bitcoin, but a bit more cumbersome to send around. [PT]   However, predicting the...
  • US Stocks - Minor Dip With Potential, Much Consternation
      It's Just a Flesh Wound – But a Sad Day for Vol Sellers On January 31 we wrote about the unprecedented levels - for a stock market index that is - the weekly and monthly RSI of the DJIA had reached (see: “Too Much Bubble Love, Likely to Bring Regret” for the astonishing details – provided you still have some capacity for stock market-related astonishment). We will take the opportunity to toot our horn by reminding readers that we highlighted VIX calls of all things as a worthwhile...
  • Why I Own Gold and Gold Mining Companies – An Interview With Jayant Bandari
      Opportunities in the Junior Mining Sector Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable has recently interviewed Jayant Bandari, the publisher of Capitalism and Morality and a frequent contributor to this site. The topics discussed include currencies, bitcoin, gold and above all junior gold stocks (i.e., small producers and explorers). Jayant shares some of his best ideas in the segment, including arbitrage opportunities currently offered by pending takeovers – which is an area that generally...
  • When Budget Deficits Will Really Go Vertical
      Mnuchin Gets It United States Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin has a sweet gig.  He writes rubber checks to pay the nation’s bills.  Yet, somehow, the rubber checks don’t bounce.  Instead, like magic, they clear. How this all works, considering the nation’s technically insolvent, we don’t quite understand.  But Mnuchin gets it.  He knows exactly how full faith and credit works – and he knows plenty more.   Master of the Mint and economy wizard Steven Mnuchin and...
  • “Strong Dollar”, “Weak Dollar” - What About a Gold-Backed Dollar?
      Contradictory Palaver The recent hullabaloo among President Trump’s top monetary officials about the Administration’s “dollar policy” is just the start of what will likely be the first of many contradictory pronouncements and reversals which will take place in the coming months and years as the world’s reserve currency continues to be compromised.  So far, the Greenback has had its worst start since 1987, the year of a major stock market reset.   A modern-day...
  • Seasonality of Individual Stocks – an Update
      Well Known Seasonal Trends Readers are very likely aware of the “Halloween effect” or the Santa Claus rally. The former term refers to the fact that stocks on average tend to perform significantly worse in the summer months than in the winter months, the latter term describes the typically very strong advance in stocks just before the turn of the year. Both phenomena apply to the broad stock market, this is to say, to benchmark indexes such as the S&P 500 or the...
  • The Future of Copper – Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q1 2018
      Copper vs. Oil The Q1 2018 meeting of the Incrementum Fund's Advisory Board took place on January 24, about one week before the recent market turmoil began. In a way it is funny that this group of contrarians who are well known for their skeptical stance on the risk asset bubble, didn't really discuss the stock market much on this occasion. Of course there was little to add to what was already talked about extensively at previous meetings. Moreover, the main focus was on the topic...
  • US Equities – Retracement Levels and Market Psychology
      Fibonacci Retracements   Following the recent market swoon, we were interested to see how far the rebound would go. Fibonacci retracement levels are a tried and true technical tool for estimating likely targets – and they can actually provide information beyond that as well. Here is the S&P 500 Index with the most important Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline shown:   So far, the SPX has made it back to the 61.8% retracement level intraday, and has weakened...
  • Strange Economic Data
      Economic Activity Seems Brisk, But... Contrary to the situation in 2014-2015, economic indicators are currently far from signaling an imminent recession. We frequently discussed growing weakness in the manufacturing sector in 2015 (which is the largest sector of the economy in terms of gross output) - but even then, we always stressed that no clear recession signal was in sight yet.   US gross output (GO) growth year-on-year, and industrial production (IP) – note that GO...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

Top10BestPro
j9TJzzN

Austrian Theory and Investment

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com

Diary of a Rogue Economist