Surface Temperatures Plunge – the Great Pause Continues

Last year’s El Nino phenomenon temporarily provided succor to climate alarmists, who were increasingly bothered by the “Great Pause” – the fact that the tiny amount of warming experienced since the last cooling cycle ended in the late 1970s had apparently stopped. Despite trace amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere continuing to climb, mother nature decided to disobey alarmist models and temperatures went sideways for about 20 years (or even longer, depending on the data set).

 

Too bad penguins actually don’t live at the North Pole! One probably should refrain from obtaining climate information from rabidly leftist blogs. Incidentally, the same very same ice-floe has carried lost polar bears in the past, in particular the species “ursus bogus”. If one looks around a bit, there’s also a version with three penguins…

 

A raft of excuses was offered for this decidedly non-hockey stick behavior – by November 2014, there were 66 different “explanations” to choose from. So this is what “settled science” looks like: we “just know” that the economy must be burdened with onerous and expensive regulations and smothered in new taxes (including this recently proposed obscenity), in order to avert an allegedly man-made future catastrophe. And just to be safe, “climate deniers” should be jailed or killed. We know the future, but we cannot even explain what has happened in the recent past. As a reminder: not a single alarmist prediction on the climate has come true – it is a forecasting record completely unblemished by success for decades. Not even economists are that bad.

Last year the alarmists were bailed out by the El Nino phenomenon though – an extremely strong El Nino struck, quite possibly the strongest since records began. Newspaper headlines were blaring that we had just experienced the “hottest year ever” (note that the term “ever” is highly inappropriate in this context  – for most of the past 10,000 years temperatures were far warmer than today). Very few of these alarmist articles mentioned El Nino. There seemed to be a sense of great relief though – the great pause was over! Maybe there would be no need to further falsi… err, “adjust” past temperature data to create warming trends that never existed?

Alas, El Nino tends to be followed by La Nina. And this year, the steepest drop in global surface temperatures since satellite measurements began has taken place – surface temperatures have plunged by more than 1 degree centigrade (surely you remember all the breathless headlines in the mainstream media about that. No?). Note that we may still get headlines about 2016 being the “hottest year ever” though. It takes time for this massive cooling to affect the oceans, so sea temperatures will decline with a delay.

 

Mother Nature once again displays her contempt for alarmist climate models and sends surface temperatures careening lower at record speed post El Nino.

 

In short, the big pause is continuing. Note, we don’t doubt that there has been a warming trend since the end of the Little Ice Age, but the notion that human activity should be blamed for almost imperceptible climate fluctuations seems to be fundamentally flawed. The predictions of climate models forecasting rapid temperature increases have been consistently wrong as well, so maybe it is time for a rethink.

Admittedly, leads and lags are probably playing a role in this. The climate is a complex system and the time scales relevant to climate trends are undoubtedly quite large. Leads and lags represent a major problem for the “anthropogenic warming” theory though: ice core data show that CO2 levels have been leading temperatures in the past.

Mind, we are not complaining about the difficulties faced by climate scientists in attempting to forecast the climate or their failure to fully explain its  workings. After all, we aren’t complaining that physicists haven’t yet come up with the “grand unifying theory” either.

Our critique is focused on two related issues: 1. the false assertion that the science is “settled” and that no-one should be allowed to question its assertions and 2. the politicization of this branch of science, in particular the drive to impose regulations and taxes that are highly damaging to economic growth and capital accumulation, which would be dubious even if the evidence were less flimsy.

In fact, this strikes us as positively dangerous on many levels – far more dangerous than the alleged threat from rising temperatures. Inter alia it could well deprive us of the capital that may one day be needed to combat real threats. As an example, consider a large asteroid hurtling toward earth. At the moment, it is uncertain if we would be able to stop it. Only continued economic progress can get us to the point at which we can be fairly certain that such threat can be successfully met.

 

More Good News

As an aside, you may be relieved to hear that not only won’t we be burnt to a crisp anytime soon, but the number of hurricanes has plunged as well. As of  November 2016, US hurricanes are at the lowest level since 1954, continuing a trend that has been underway for quite a while. As a reminder, global tropical cyclone frequency has suffered a similar fate. So much for the much-bemoaned surge in extreme weather events due to climate change. Maybe global CO2 output should be boosted?

 

The black line shows the US tornado count of 2016 – it has just undercut the previous minimum since records began in 1954 – click to enlarge.

 

How can this be happening? We were supposed to be doomed! If this surfeit of good news on the climate continues, it will threaten to derail a major gravy train. It may even briefly interrupt the steady march toward de-civilization propagated by assorted globalist institutions, which is already under mild threat from deplorables around the world casting their votes the wrong way. Someone call George Soros, maybe he can at least buy us some bad weather (his recent purchases left a lot to be desired).

 

Conclusion

As we have pointed out in “The End is Nigh”, predictions of imminent global doom have been with us since at least 2800 BC –  the earliest recorded instance of such a forecast, scratched into an Akkadian or Sumerian stone tablet. Predicting the end of the world on account of humanity’s sinful behavior has always been a good business (though never as well-paid as it is today).

Expert predictions have failed with alarming frequency lately. Just consider what has happened in 2016 alone. First the absolutely certain US rate hike cycle failed to materialize. Then UK citizens voted for “Brexit”, which experts assured us would never happen.

Thereafter Mr. Trump – who according to experts didn’t stand even the slightest chance of winning the election – somehow became president of the US, an event that has left snowflakes catatonic in their safe spaces across the world. And now global surface temperatures have plunged faster in a single year than at any time since satellite measurements began, taking back the El Nino spike  – and the dreaded warming pause is back.

This is getting scary. Maybe global warming has caused all these things? The Lord knows, it is responsible for nearly everything else. One wonders what horrors are going to raise their head next. Will global peace break out?

 

Charts via Wattsupwiththat

 

Addendum: A Blast from the Distant Past

While scouring the interwebs for information and links we could use in this post, we came across an AP report published by the Washington Post. At first glance it is nothing special – pretty much the usual alarmism, garnished with anecdotes and dire warnings from experts. We have highlighted the scariest parts:

 

“The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulate at Bergen Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

 

(emphasis added)

So what makes this report special? Only one thing: The Washington Post published it on November 2 1922 – 94 years ago.

 

 
 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

15 Responses to “The Climate Changes Back – What Comes Next?”

  • jks:

    I see the odd anti-man, anti-mind, anti-reason religionists plug their global warming–excuse me–climate change meme on TV from time to time. They always refer to warming at Arctica while completely ignoring the record ice buildups year after year at Antarctica. They also ignore that the two phenomena tend to go hand in hand:

    https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum

  • rodney:

    Well done PT, excellent article! I *love* the comparison of the penguin picture to the ursus bogus one! It proves how full of crap this alarmists are!

    Some people like to call the skeptics a fraud. Prove it.

    They act like “climategate” never happened. Like removal of the holocene (biggest fraud I can think of) at NASA never happened.

    Poor confused minds. Clear thinking is a rarity these days.

    Keep up the good work PT. The silent majority supports your view.

  • Doly:

    And you feel so clever, don’t you? You know so much better than those silly climate change people. You are sooooo superior.

    Unfortunately, all of us that have a science background actually understand science. And we understand something else: nature doesn’t forgive. It isn’t like people, that you can convince or negotiate with. Drop something, and it will fall, and gravity doesn’t give a damn whether it’s your child that’s falling and you’d be willing to give everything you’ve got to stop this.

    So try to argue with people if you want, but remember this: the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doesn’t give a damn about your opinions. If the laws of nature say that the planet is warming, the atmosphere doesn’t care if you believe it or not.

    It would be fun to watch the meltdown of Republicans when they realize that nature doesn’t care about their feelings, if it wasn’t because the rest of us are going to be too damn busy trying to survive to enjoy the spectacle of watching those crybabies learning the hard way that their problem wasn’t liberals, but God Himself.

    • Solon:

      Could you point out to which or whose laws of nature you are referring?

      They are typically named by famous scientist… like Newton’s Laws of Motion, which, ironically, turned out to not be Laws at all.

      Funny thing, that Science. Just when you think you’ve got it pinned down gets all shifty… Of course those of us with a Science background already know this.

      We also understand how important making accurate predictions are to the strength of one’s hypotheses. You see, not everything you drop actually falls. It depends.

      As it stands today, we have no data that shows the climate is warming. We have no data that describes what all of the effects are on climate and how much change, plus or minus, man is responsible for. And we have no data that shows that an increase in climate would be catastrophic. History does not bear this out.

      Without evidence, all you have is a meaningless rhetorical device… “nature doesn’t care.”

      • woodsbp:

        ” …those of us with a Science background already know this.” Really?

        Physico-chemical laws related to gases, fluids, solids, laws of diffusion, Enthalpy, Thermodynamic Laws – silly stuff like that. Water is a mighty interesting substance. Has some nifty properties. Has a thing called Latent Heat which comes into play when water phase changes from solid to liquid and from liquid to gas (or vice versa). Where do think hurricanes get their destructive power from?

        “We also understand how important making accurate predictions are to the strength of one’s hypotheses.”

        Accurate predictions? Surely you mean obtaining observations (or readings) which the analyst can demonstrate are imprecise and inaccurate within specified statistical limits given some assumptions about the nature and distribution of the quantitative data being determined.

        Science is (or is meant to be) about attempting to refute a Null Hypothesis. Proving something true is a matter for the Almighty.

      • JohnnyZ:

        Perfectly well said!

    • JohnnyZ:

      “Unfortunately, all of us that have a science background actually understand science.”

      Hahaha! Where do I start here? Let’s see in how many ways that statement is wrong / funny / misguided, etc.

      – What is unfortunate is that your “teachers” make you think you understand science
      – It is also unfortunate that you have fallen for the above trap
      – What you “understand” is how to follow the herd and avoid thinking, particularly independently, critically and out of the box
      – What you call “science” has long been distorted and thrown off the path of the scientific method. Your “teachers” have agenda and biases and have “blinded you by science” over the last 500 years or so. These people (some of them are actually psychopaths, the rest are tools of psychopaths and sell-outs) are practicing Satanists (check the pizzagate to learn about their worship and preferences) and have been spewing fake news, fake politics, fake humanitarian concerns, fake reasons for wars, fake religion, fake culture, fake art etc.

    • JohnnyZ:

      “It would be fun to watch the meltdown of Republicans when they realize that nature doesn’t care about their feelings, if it wasn’t because the rest of us are going to be too damn busy trying to survive to enjoy the spectacle of watching those crybabies learning the hard way that their problem wasn’t liberals, but God Himself.”

      So what do we have here? Another “we are doomed” over the next 4 years prediction? Nature does not care about the feelings of the pseudo-scientists either. Besides, if you knew something about God (who tends to be somewhat different than nature with most religious beliefs), you would pull your head out of your ass and start seeing the real world, instead of using empty crybaby rhetoric.

  • pud:

    This is typical fraudulent misrepresentation of the data. Your sources are known frauds, your time period arbitrary and misleading, your tropical storm and tornado data completely warped and false.

    Atlantic basin storms require a complex combination of factors not just heat.

    Typhoons have been markedly more numerous and powerful

    Tornados also require specific circumstances not just heat and have been clustering far greater than normal

    A chart going back to the beginning of record keeping demonstrates a clear trend

    Arctic explorers at the turn of the century were not climate scientists

    Everything about your article is wrong, trash, false, misleading, disingenuous and biased in willful ignorance

    Global CO2 continues to climb unabated to nearly million year highs….it is proven to be man made and the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas is known and factual.

    There is NO doubt that we are contributors to climate change…you sir are a liar and a fraud

    • TheLege:

      More than the penguins and polar bears it’s the extinction of climate scientists that I worry about.

    • JohnnyZ:

      The only liars and frauds are the pseudo-scientists, whose lavish budgets depend on them pretending that they say “factual” relationships between CO2 and earth temperatures. Then we have the useful idiots, who believe them, follow them and defend them against well-deserved skepticism.

      “Global CO2 continues to climb unabated to nearly million year highs….it is proven to be man made and the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas is known and factual.”

      – Last time I checked CO2 is 0.04% of the atmosphere, whereas water vapor can be as much as 5%
      – Not all CO2 is man made
      – Even if the CO2 greenhouse properties are proven on the micro level, they are not proven so far on a whole earth level
      – Even the above were proven on a global level, there is no proof that there is no countervailing mechanism
      – All the warmist models have long breached the borders of their confidence intervals, i.e. they are bogus

    • rowingboat:

      My university professor (1980s, Earth Sciences) warned about the cooling trend to that point in the 20th Century and the potential for another ice age… emissions/pollutants reflecting radiation, interfering with the greenhouse effect and all that. It’s going to be amusing observing reaction during the next cooling cycle because we’ve become such a conceited bunch.

  • w9a9r9p:

    Dan beat me to it (had to register first); “leading” should be “lagging”.

  • Dan in Nevada:

    Re: “… ice core data show that CO2 levels have been leading temperatures in the past…”; actually it’s the other way around, which I think is what you meant to say.

    • Solon:

      Pretty sure he means “leading”. As in: CO2 increases have preceded temperature increases in the past. Which they often have. Pater is calling into question cause and effect, which has never been demonstrated on a global level.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Can Germany Be Made Great Again?
      When Germany Was Great! Ever since the start of the deliberately conceived “migrant crisis,” orchestrated by NWO elites, the news out of Germany has been, to say the least, horrific. Right before the eyes of the world, a country is being demographically destroyed through a coercive plan of mass migration.  The intended consequences of this – financial strain, widespread crime and property destruction, the breakdown of German culture – will continue to worsen if things are not...
  • Yanking the Bank of Japan’s Chain
      Mathematical Certainties Based on the simple reflection that arithmetic is more than just an abstraction, we offer a modest observation.  The social safety nets of industrialized economies, including the United States, have frayed at the edges.  Soon the safety net’s fabric will snap. This recognition is not an opinion.  Rather, it’s a matter of basic arithmetic.  The economy cannot sustain the government obligations that have been piled up upon it over the last 70...
  • Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q3 2017
      Global Monetary Architecture The quarterly Incrementum Advisory Board meeting was held last week (the full transcript is available for download below). Our regulars Dr. Frank Shostak and Jim Rickards were unable to attend this time, but we were joined by special guest Luke Gromen of research house “Forest for the Trees” (FFTT; readers will find free samples of the FFTT newsletter at the site and in case you want to find the link again later, we have recently added it to our blog roll)....
  • Views From the Top of the Skyscraper Index
      Views From the Top of the Skyscraper Index On a warm Friday Los Angeles morning in spring of 2016, we found ourselves standing at the busy corner of Wilshire Boulevard and South Figueroa Street.  We were walking back to our office following a client wire brushing for events beyond our control.  But we had other thoughts on our mind.   Iron workers (the non-distraught variety) atop the 10 ton spire of the Wilshire Grand Center in Lost Angeles. This image is vaguely...
  • Bitcoin, Gold and Silver
      Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report That’s it. It’s the final straw. One of the alternative investing newsletters had a headline that screamed, “Bitcoin Is About to Soar, But You Must Act by August 1 to Get In". It was missing only the call to action “call 1-800-BIT-COIN now! That number again is 800 B.I.T..C.O.I.N.”   Bitcoin, daily. In terms of the gains recorded between the lows of 2009 and the recent highs (from less eight hundredths of a US cent per...
  • Prepare for Another Market Face Pounding
      “Better than Goldilocks” “Markets make opinions,” goes the old Wall Street adage.  Indeed, this sounds like a nifty thing to say.  But what does it really mean?   The bears discover Mrs. Locks in their bed and it seems they are less than happy. [PT]   Perhaps this means that after a long period of rising stocks prices otherwise intelligent people conceive of clever explanations for why the good times will carry on.  Moreover, if the market goes up for...
  • Seasonality: Will Patterns that Worked in the Past Also Work in the Future?
      Historians of the Future Every investor makes trading decisions based on what happened in the past – there is no other way. What really interests us is the future though. After all, what happens in the future ultimately determines investment success.   When in doubt, you can always try to reach the pasture...  In Human Action, Ludwig von Mises described stock market speculators as akin to “historians of the future”. This is without a doubt the most trenchant definition of...
  • Bitcoin Forked – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      A Fork in the Cryptographic Road So bitcoin forked. You did not know this. Well, if you’re saving in gold perhaps not. If you’re betting in the crypto-coin casino, you knew it, bet on it, and now we assume are happily diving into your greater quantity of dollars after the fork.   Bitcoin, daily – adding the current price of BCH (the new type of Bitcoin all holders of BTC can claim at a 1:1 ratio), the gain since the “fork” amounts to roughly $1,000 at the time we...
  • What Went Wrong With the 21st Century?
      Fools and Rascals   And it’s time, time, time And it’s time, time, time It’s time, time, time that you love And it’s time, time, time… - Tom  Waits   Tom Waits rasps about time   POITOU, FRANCE – “So how much did you make last night?” “We made about $15,000,” came the reply from our eldest son, a keen cryptocurrency investor. “Bitcoin briefly pierced the $3,500 mark – an all-time high. The market cap of the...
  • Czar vs. Pope
      Vladimir the Great Sums Up Pope Francis the Fake Vladimir Putin has once again demonstrated why he is the most perceptive, farsighted, and for a politician, the most honest world leader to come around in quite a while.  If it had not been for his patient and wise statesmanship, the world may have already been embroiled in an all-encompassing global conflagration with the possibility of thermonuclear destruction.   Vladimir Putin is sizing up Pope Francis with his “good...
  • Bitcoin Has No Yield, but Gold Does – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      Bitcoin and Credit Transactions Last week, we said:   It is commonly accepted to say the dollar is “printed”, but we can see from this line of thinking it is really borrowed. There is a real borrower on the other side of the transaction, and that borrower has powerful motivations to keep paying to service the debt. Bitcoin has no backing. Bitcoin is created out of thin air, the way people say of the dollar. The quantity of bitcoins created may be strictly limited by...
  • Is Historically Low Volatility About to Expand?
      Suspicion Asleep You have probably noticed it already: stock market volatility has recently all but disappeared. This raises an important question for every investor: Has the market established a permanent plateau of low volatility, or is the current period of low volatility just the calm before the storm?   All quiet on the VIX front... what can possibly happen? [PT] - click to enlarge.   When such questions regarding future market trends arise, it is often...

Support Acting Man

j9TJzzN

Austrian Theory and Investment

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com