The Economy and the Stock Market

As long time readers know, we are always paying close attention to the manufacturing sector, which is far more important to the US economy than is generally believed. In terms of gross output it is the largest sector of the economy, and it should of course be obvious that saving, investment and production are the only ways to create wealth.

 

factoryWhat’s left of the Brooklyn Domino Sugar Refinery.

Photo credit: Paul Raphaelson

 

Contrary to what one often hears from central bankers and their courtier economists, we cannot consume ourselves to prosperity. Rising consumption is a possible effect of economic growth, not a cause of it. Debt-funded capital consumption promoted by loose monetary policy can only lead to impoverishment.

Our friend Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception (VP) is doing a lot of excellent and highly creative econometric work. It is  strongly focused on the discovery and creation of proprietary leading indicators that can provide actionable information to stock market investors.

In the course of an email discussion with him and several others on the above-mentioned topic, he has provided a number of charts developed by VP that bring the current weakness in a number of economic data into context with the stock market’s performance.

We felt that one of these charts (which he has created only two days ago), was particularly striking. It shows past instances when both the manufacturing and services ISM headline indexes were below the level of 52 (50 is the threshold between expansion and contraction, readings between 50 and 52 indicate a weak expansion).

This state of affairs has recently returned, after both the August manufacturing and services ISM numbers came in well below expectations, with the former actually dipping into contraction territory slightly below the 50 level. It is incidentally quite funny (but not unusual) that the Fed is musing about hiking rates at this particular juncture. Here is Jonathan’s chart:

 

1-ism-signalThe Variant Perception ISM signal: The red bars indicate times when both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM headline readings were below the level of 52. Evidently, this kind of environment has not been particularly friendly to stock market investors in the past – click to enlarge.

 

Will brisk money supply growth and ample liquidity combined with financial engineering by listed companies overrule the signal this time? That is of course possible. After all, we only have one reading to go on so far, which may yet turn out to be an outlier (we actually don’t think it is, as it is corroborated by other data as well).

In any case, we thought this is a very interesting data point and we will keep  readers posted on future developments. At the very least this should be seen as an important heads-up.

 

2-tms-2US broad true money supply TMS-2: as of July 2016 its y/y growth rate stands at a brisk 8.43%; since early 2008 it has grown by a cumulative 128%. This is the main driver of asset price inflation – click to enlarge.

 

Conclusion

The stock market can defy economic weakness up to a point, particularly during times of strong money supply growth – but this isn’t going to last if the weakness continues or worsens. Ultimately it will hinge on the state of the economy’s pool of real funding, and all indications are that it is increasingly in trouble.

 

Charts by Variant Perception, St. Louis Federal Reserve Research

 

 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

One Response to “A Striking Chart”

  • Mr. Tenebrarum, your TMS-2 measures debt based ‘credit’ not ‘money’. One would think that the ‘Credit Collapse of 2008’ would’ve taught you the difference between the two by now.

    The ‘True Money Supply’ currently stands at $1.46-Trillion U.S. Legal Tender Dollars in circulation around the globe. That is the mean to which the Fed and Banksters’ dollar denominated, asset backed, debt based, Private Credit bubble will attempt to revert to when it bursts.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • The Gold Sector Remains at an Interesting Juncture
      Technical Divergence Successfully Maintained In an update on gold and gold stocks in mid June, we pointed out that a number of interesting divergences had emerged which traditionally represent a heads-up indicating a trend change is close (see: Divergences Emerge for the details). We did so after a big down day in the gold price, which actually helped set up the bullish divergence; this may have felt counter-intuitive, but these set-ups always do. Consider now the updated chart below...
  • Confronting the Dragon with Peter Navarro
      Of No Real Use A young man might go to business school believing he is obtaining some sort of academic training that will enable him to make a comfortable living.  His degree may gain him entry into a large corporation, where he can work his way up to a good income.  This may even put him on the fast track to what he envisions as success.   Don't knock it: Being useless can lead to unexpected career opportunities... [PT]   But his academic training likely won't...
  • Trouble in Paradise
      Impressive Zeal for Faded Ideals Uncompromising independence, rugged individualism, and limitless personal freedom were once essential to the American character.  According to popular American folklore, they still are.  We have some reservations.   Rugged individualists suffer mid-life identity crisis. [PT]   The principles that gave rise to the American character died long ago.  Freedom.  Liberty.  Independence.  Limited representative government. Sound...
  • Gold – Macroeconomic Fundamentals Improve
      A Beginning Shift in Gold Fundamentals A previously outright bearish fundamental backdrop for gold has recently become slightly more favorable. Ironically, the arrival of this somewhat more favorable situation was greeted by a pullback in physical demand and a decline in the gold price, after both had defied bearish fundamentals for many months by remaining stubbornly firm.   The eternal popularity contest...   The list of gold fundamentals that have improved is...
  • The United States of Terror
      Bombs Away! Two recent articles* have again demonstrated that the greatest “terrorist” entity on earth are not the bogymen – Russia, China, Iran, North Korea – so often portrayed by Western presstitutes and the American government, but the United States itself!   This is an old cartoon, but still a good one. It perfectly describes the trigger-happy Western political class and the depth of its “thinking”. By happenstance we recently reviewed the Libya intervention...
  • Capitulation and Currency Pain - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Waving the White Flag The price of gold rose two bucks last week, though the price of silver fell 10 cents. We have seen several analyses recently predicting big price drops, in one case by at least $500 in gold by the end of the year. Is this what capitulation looks like? It’s said they don’t ring a bell at the top, but they don’t ring a bell at the bottom either.   The give-up moment arrives... [PT]   We have also seen technical analysis arguing that...
  • Maurice Jackson Interviews Rick Rule – Investing in Natural Resources
      Contrarian Investment Opportunities in Natural Resources Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable has recently interviewed Sprott U.S. Holdings CEO Rick Rule, a well known specialist and “old hand” in the natural resource space. This is quite a wide-ranging and interesting interview, so we decided to present it to our readers. Below you find a summary and our comments on the main topics discussed, a video/podcast of the interview,  as well as a download link to a PDF file of the...
  • The True Sport of MAGA
      Chest Bumps One of the more extraordinary things that investors have seen in living memory is unfolding at this precise moment. This goes for business leaders, money managers, veteran Wall Streeters, value investors, 401(k) holders, momentum traders, FX guys, gold bugs, technical gurus, chartists, pork belly speculators, quants, astrologists, Larry Summers, put option sellers, dweebs and geeks, millennial index fund enthusiasts, and everyone in between.   Pork belly speculators...
  • Black Holes for Capital - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Race to the Bottom Last week the price of gold fell $17, and that of silver $0.30. Why? We can tell you about the fundamentals. We can show charts of the basis. But we can’t get into the heads of the sellers.   Other people's fiat: in the global race to the bottom, it was recently the turn of emerging market currencies to tank. [PT]   We can say that in the mainstream view, the dollar is rising. The dollar, in their view, is not measured in gold but in rupees in...
  • US Money Supply and Fed Credit – the Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious
      US Money Supply Growth Stalls Our good friend Michael Pollaro, who keeps a close eye on global “Austrian” money supply measures and their components, has recently provided us with a very interesting update concerning two particular drivers of money supply growth. But first, here is a chart of our latest update of the y/y growth rate of the US broad true money supply aggregate TMS-2 until the end of June 2018 with a 12-month moving average.   US TMS-2: y/y growth rate with...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Dog Blow

Austrian Theory and Investment

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com