Another Bad Hair Day

At the beginning of the week, it looked like a rebound in stocks might get underway – and why not? After all, the market is a bit oversold by now. In fact, a number of indexes are oversold quite a bit. But then came Wednesday, and turned into another bad hair day – a really bad one.

 

20-animals-having-a-bad-hair-day-3A surprised market participant joins the stock market in having a bad hair day.

Photo via pinterest.com

 

Needless to say, this remains highly unusual market behavior for early January. And this week is an options expiration week to boot, which reminds us that the warning shot in August also happened during an expiration week (plus the Monday following the expiration).

Probably because it is early January and this market behavior is so unusual, there is no real sense of fear yet. There are certainly many scary headlines and bears are becoming increasingly more vocal. For instance, famous bear Albert Edwards of Soc-Gen has just decided he needs to lower his target…quite a bit. In a noteworthy similarity to us, his timing is occasionally off by a few years, but he also has a disconcerting habit of being vindicated at some point down the road.

Said “some point” may be in the process of arriving. On the other hand, there are also still many true believers going on about imminent v-shaped recoveries. In fact, it feels like there are still way too many of those. We note in the meantime that the downside leaders continue to lead to the downside – here are three of them:

 

1-Downside Leaders (TRAN, RUT, NYA)The Dow Jones Transportation Average, the Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite Index have all broken below their August 2015 mini-panic lows – with the breakdown of the former two looking rather decisive by now. Transports and small caps were two of the relative strength leaders of the bull market, while the NYA reflects the broader market. That all of these indexes are now leading the downturn should give one pause – click to enlarge.

 

Oversold conditions in term of momentum-type indicators by now close to or at extremes across the board. A bounce should therefore probably soon begin (i.e., within a few days). As we have pointed out on Tuesday, the quality of the next market rebound should be quite informative. It is hard to say though from whence it will begin, as oversold conditions can always become worse in the short term.

The more popular averages and indexes which are more heavily weighted toward reflecting big cap performance are closing in on their August 2015 lows, but haven’t broken below them yet:

 

2-INDU, SPX, COMPDow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite – weak, but still above their warning shot lows of last August – click to enlarge.

 

This creates a potentially positive short term divergence, but it obviously wouldn’t take much to erase it.

 

Still too Much Complacency?

Assorted fear indicators such as put-call ratios and the VIX are by now elevated, but curiously enough, they have failed to produce extreme readings, especially compared to the August sell-off .

Unfortunately there is no hard-and-fast rule as to how to interpret this. It could be that it represents a positive divergence as well. However, it could also be a sign that there is still far too much complacency.

 

3-CPCEEquity put-call volume ratio: relatively high, but not really expressing abject fear yet. This is a bit surprising, considering the extent and speed of the sell-off – click to enlarge.

 

4-VIXThe VIX, a.k.a. the “fear index”, which measures the volatility premiums of SPX options. This is has been a surprisingly lame advance so far – click to enlarge.

 

The ISE call-put ratio seemingly indicates that traders are fast asleep. Or rather, it shows that the small bounce on Monday and Tuesday had them convinced very quickly that the market was about to turn around:

 

5-ISEISE call-put ratio (in this case, high readings are considered contrarian bearish and vice versa). Traders seem thoroughly unworried based on the last two readings. They didn’t regain their conviction this fast after the August lows – click to enlarge.

 

Finally, as an aside to all this, OEX put-call ratios are widely seen as a confirming rather than a contrarian indicators, as OEX options are considered the playground of “smart money” players. Both the OEX volume put-call ratio and the OEX put-call open interest ratio will tend to spike ahead of major sell-offs, but usually the actual downturn in prices lags these spikes to some extent (the duration of the lag is variable, and occasionally there are false alarms). Not so this time around:

 

6-OEX open interest ratioThe OEX put-call open interest ratio has spiked to a record high – exactly one day before the sell-off began. To be fair, it has been trending sharply higher for several weeks already. Still, it is unusual to see no lag at all between the ratio reaching a peak reading and a subsequent market sell-off – click to enlarge.

 

Evidently, not everybody was surprised by the selling squall, but our impression from reading mainstream financial media reports is that the number of people that have been surprised exceeds that of the unsurprised ones by a sizable margin.

Perhaps this is because the plethora of warning signs that has accumulated throughout 2015 hasn’t meant much so far. However, it now appears as though these warning signs were indeed meaningful.

 

The Federal Backpedaling Brigade Swarms Out

It is also interesting that after some tough talk was delivered by Fed officials on the first trading day of the year, more recently a few of the Fed’s well-known doves have been wheeled out to engage in some verbal backpedaling on the central bank’s widely known rate hike plans.

First up to bat was Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, who declared that in his opinion, the economy could not possibly withstand more than two rate hikes this year:

 

“Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Thursday his view of the U.S. interest rate path in 2016 was consistent with two hikes, and cautioned that monetary policy must take into account the potential for lower economic growth in the long term.

“I think appropriate policy is consistent with some of the most accommodative dots on the chart,” Evans said, referring to the range of economic projections Fed policymakers have given for the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by the end of 2016. Their median estimate is for four quarter-point rate hikes this year, but Evans is among the Fed’s most cautious members and sees risks tilted to the downside.

 

Mind, that was on January 7. If he were interviewed again today, he might well say that one should perhaps wait with implementing any further rate hikes until kingdom come, or some other version of eternity.

 

evansCharles Evans threatening his off-camera conversation partner with a pencil.

Photo credit: Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg

 

Next we heard from Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren, another noted dove, with moral support provided by none other than Larry Summers (the man who has a plan for everything and everyone of us):

 

“Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a voting member of the U.S. central bank’s policy committee this year, said the path of rate increases might be pulled down by a slowing U.S. economy.

The forecast of four hikes “does have downside risks,” Rosengren said in a speech in Boston. He cited “headwinds” stemming from weakness of major U.S. trading partners and only “limited data” to support the Fed’s forecast of a pickup in inflation. “Further tightening will require data continuing to be strong enough that growth will be at or above potential, so that Federal Reserve policy makers can be confident that inflation will reach our 2% target,” Rosengren said.

[…]

Earlier on Wednesday, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Fed officials have had a tendency of being too optimistic about the economy for years. “I’d be surprised if the world economy can comfortably withstand four hikes,” Summers said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. He noted that markets “agree with me,” and are only expecting two hikes this year. “I don’t think you invest your credibility in the idea that you are going to have a substantial number of rate increases in the coming year,” he said.”

 

(emphasis added)

Summers finally said something we actually agree with – which is probably a first. We are referring to the statement that “Fed officials have had a tendency of being too optimistic about the economy for years”.

Our only recommendation for the central bank is to leave rates alone and let the markets decide their level. Anyway, we find this preemptive verbal assault by doves an interesting development. The stock market trend is likely far more important to the Fed’s decision-making process than it usually lets on.

 

Conclusion

This is certainly an interesting juncture in the markets. Commodities and EM currencies seem extremely oversold, and stocks are at least sort of oversold (enough so that they would normally start to rebound from around current levels). However, the trend in commodities and EM currencies also serves as a warning that downtrends can at times become relentless over short to medium term time frames.

Lately there is a seemingly endless stream of bad news, as global economic growth appears to be quite weak – weaker than most people thought it would be. China’s situation is as always a bit opaque in terms of official data. However, a number of the unofficial estimates, such as e.g. the estimated amount of non-performing loans in China’s banking system are downright terrifying. The speed at which China’s foreign exchange reserves have recently declined is definitely also raising eyebrows, as it indicates more yuan weakness lies ahead.

 

7-ChinaNPLsA recent chart showing China’s NPLs, ranging from the tiny official numbers to the scariest independent estimates – click to enlarge.

 

We are mentioning this because an oversold market can easily become more oversold when it keeps being inundated with evidence that economic conditions are not what they were thought to be. The odds-on bet is still that some sort of rebound is quite close, but we caution that a great many things have happened lately that “shouldn’t” be happening.

 

Charts by: StockCharts, SentimenTrader, Bloomberg

 

 
 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 
 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

One Response to “Stock Market Indigestion Gets Worse”

  • RedQueenRace:

    Yesterday the SPX filled a gap at 1886.59 on the hourly chart, bottoming for the day at 1886.41.

    Today’s action looks like the wash-out, with a major reversal occurring less than 6 handles lower. The ES rallied 56+ handles from low to high so there may be some backing and filling before a move up gets underway. It could work down and test today’s low but given the oversold state of the indices the odds favor a rally with little to no more downside from the that low.

    There are upside gaps at ES 1970.50 (no corresponding SPX gap) and SPX 2043.62 (between Dec 31 and Jan 4 trading sessions). The VIX also has full gaps below that are filled at 21.86 (Jan 6-7) and 17.42 (Dec 30-31).

    So the market is probably in for a 4-6+ week move up. I’m looking for the gap fill at 2043.62 (imo odds favor a fill but of course don’t guarantee it) before looking to start hedging for market risk with index shorts again.

    If the SPX gap fills I would at a minimum liquidate some longs and probably also take a small SPXU position. Since the all-time high on 5/20/2015 the SPX has made 4 lower highs and at the moment I think the odds of another failure are pretty good. The 2043.62 gap fill is less than 40 handles off the last lower high (2081.56 on Dec 29).

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Gold Sector: Positioning and Sentiment
      A Case of Botched Timing, But... When last we wrote about the gold sector in mid February, we discussed historical patterns in the HUI following breaches of its 200-day moving average from below. Given that we expected such a breach to occur relatively soon, the post turned out to be rather ill-timed. Luckily we always advise readers that we are not exactly Nostradamus (occasionally our timing is a bit better). Below is a chart of the HUI Index depicting the action since the January...
  • India: The next Pakistan?
      India’s Rapid Degradation This is Part XI of a series of articles (the most recent of which is linked here) in which I have provided regular updates on what started as the demonetization of 86% of India's currency. The story of demonetization and the ensuing developments were merely a vehicle for me to explore Indian institutions, culture and society.   The Modimobile is making the rounds amid a flower shower. [PT] Photo credit: PTI Photo   Tribal cultures face...
  • The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus
      Onward vs. Upward Something both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century.  Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward.  Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired.   What happened to the miracle? The Keynesian wet dream of an unfettered fiat debt money system has been realized, and debt has been duly expanded at every opportunity.  Although the fat lady has so far only...
  • Welcome to Totalitarian America, President Trump!
      Trump vs. the Deep State If there had been any doubt that the land of the free and home of the brave is now a totalitarian society, the revelations that its Chief Executive Officer has been spied upon while campaigning for that office and during his brief tenure as president should now be allayed.   Image adapted from the cover of “Deep State #5” - depicting an assassin from the future   President Trump joins the very crowded list of opponents of the American...
  • March to Default
      Style Over Substance “May you live in interesting times,” says the ancient Chinese curse.  No doubt about it, we live in interesting times.  Hardly a day goes by that we’re not aghast and astounded by a series of grotesque caricatures of the world as at devolves towards vulgarity. Just this week, for instance, U.S. Representative Maxine Waters tweeted, “Get ready for impeachment.”   Well, Maxine Waters is obviously right – impeaching the president is an urgent...
  • Boosting Stock Market Returns With A Simple Trick
      Systematic Trading Based on Statistics Trading methods based on statistics represent an unusual approach for many investors. Evaluation of a security's fundamental merits is not of concern, even though it can of course be done additionally. Rather, the only important criterion consists of typical price patterns determined by statistical examination of past trends.   Fundamental considerations such as the valuation of stocks are not really relevant to the statistics-based trading...
  • Searching for Truth
      Heresy or Truth? RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – In the fifth century, Christian scholars counted 88 different heresies. Arianism. Eutychianism. Nestorianism. If there was a way to “offend” God, they had a name for it. One group of “heretics” argued that there was no such thing as “original sin.” Another denied the trinity. And another claimed Jesus was not divine. Which one had the truth?   Depiction of the first Council of Ephesus in 431 AD, convened by Emperor...
  • Why the 21st Century Sucks - Turtles All the Way Down
      A Truly Sucky Century BALTIMORE – What an awful century! Worst we’ve ever seen. Household incomes are down. Employment is down, with 7 million people in the U.S. of working age without jobs. Productivity growth is down. GDP growth is down – to only about 0.5% per capita last year. Even life expectancies are down. Drug overdoses are up. Suicides are up. One out of every eight children lives in a family getting food stamps. One of out every eight adults takes psychoactive drugs...
  • Gold and the Fed's Looming Rate Hike in March
      Long Term Technical Backdrop Constructive After a challenging Q4 in 2016 in the context of rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar, gold seems to be getting its shine back in Q1. The technical picture is beginning to look a little more constructive and the “reflation trade”, spurred on further by expectations of higher infrastructure spending and tax cuts in the US, has thus far also benefited gold. From a technical perspective, there are indications that the low at $1045.40,...
  • The Unstable Empire – A Campfire Tale
      Campfire Tale   Caesar: The Ides of March are come. Soothsayer: Ay, Caesar, but not gone. — Julius Caesar, Shakespeare   GRANADA, NICARAGUA – Today, we stop the horses and circle the wagons. For 19 years, we have been rolling along, exploring, discovering. We began with the assumption that we didn’t “know” anything - so we kept our eyes open. Now we know even less.   Famous people who knew nothing and were not shy to admit it: Sergeant Schultz...
  • Off the Beaten Path in Mesoamerica
      Greeted by Rooster There’s an endearing quality to a steadfast rooster call at the crack of dawn when overheard from a warm country farmhouse.  There’s a reassuring charm that comes with the committed gallinaceous greeting of daybreak that’s particularly suited to a rural ambiance.  The allure of a morning cock-a-doodle-doo somehow falls flat in all other settings.   Good morning everyone! Before meteorological forecasts were available on TV and smart phones, people...
  • Why Silver Went Down – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Rumor-Mongering vs. Data The question on the lips of everyone who plans to exchange his metal for dollars—widely thought to be money—is why did silver go down? The price of silver in dollar terms dropped from about 18 bucks to about 17, or about 5 percent.   Reportedly silver was already assassinated in the late 19th century... so last week they must have assassinated its corpse. [PT] Illustration taken from 'Coin's Financial School'   The facile answer is...

Austrian Theory and Investment

Support Acting Man

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

j9TJzzN

350x200

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com