Hiking Into a Slowdown

It becomes ever more tempting to conclude that the timing of the Fed’s rate hike was really quite odd, even from the perspective of the planners – even though the U3 unemployment rate has fallen to a mere 5% and they are probably correct about the transitory nature of the currently very low headline “inflation” rate (as we have recently pointed out, actual monetary inflation currently stands at almost 8% y/y).

 

industrieImage credit: Fotolia

 

Recent economic reports have by and large not shown any noteworthy improvements – on the contrary. District manufacturing surveys are going from bad to worse, existing home sales just had another truly terrible month (this time bad weather can obviously not be blamed, but apparently there is a problem with filling in simplified forms) and even the Markit services PMI has suddenly undercut the entire range of economists’ expectations. Meanwhile, the growth rate in ECRI’s coincident index has just hit a 21-month low:

 

1-coincident indexECRI’s coincident index growth rate keeps falling. The weekly leading indicator has recovered from its lows (while remaining in negative territory), but we dislike the fact that this indicator is evidently strongly influenced by the stock market. In our opinion the stock market has long ceased to tell us anything about the economy.

 

In her press conference, Ms. Yellen inter alia went on about the “strong consumer” – as if one could consume oneself to prosperity. Both stronger employment and stronger consumption are a consequence of economic growth, not a cause of it. To believe otherwise, one needs to put the cart before the horse, based on the primitive Keynesian flow model of the economy (however, this model does not depict how the economy actually works).

A difficulty consists of the fact that capital consumption – i.e., a net loss of wealth – tends to masquerade as growing prosperity during a credit expansion. This is why the planners erroneously believe that growing the supply of money from thin air and artificially suppressing interest rates improves the economy. It is a bit like watching the erection of a Potemkin village and believing that there is actually something behind the facade.

Ms. Yellen always reminds us are that empirical data are the main guide informing Fed policy, but even those seem to contradict her point about consumers – to wit, growth in real personal consumption expenditures has just hit a 15 month low:

 

2-real PCEAnnual growth in real personal consumption expenditures by sectors

 

We have to briefly interpose here that we are not about to suggest what the Fed should or shouldn’t do. We are not armchair central planners proposing “better plans” for interventionists. Our only plan with respect to central banks is to argue for the urgent need to abolish them and adopt a completely unhampered free market in money and banking.

We are mentioning this because we don’t want new readers to confuse us with the many would-be social engineers that can be found elsewhere on the intertubes. The reason why we discuss central bank policy is the fact that it exists and that we all have to live with its consequences.

With that out of the way, we want to show a collection of updated charts from our friend Michael Pollaro, on what we think are key economic data points. We also want to point readers to a recent critical discussion by Mish regarding an “economic snapshot” paper produced by the NY Fed (we agree with his counterarguments).

As we have stressed on previous occasions, our focus is primarily on the business side of the economy, and within that, on the part that produces the greatest share of gross economic output, namely manufacturing. This is of course in keeping with the cause-effect vector mentioned above. The charts below show a somewhat broader array of data, i.e. they are not only about manufacturing.

 

Economic Data Snapshot

The aggregate data on business sales, inventories, employment, etc. are mainly updated until the end of October, resp. November. This is simply due to the respective official update frequencies. However, we can already infer from recent more up-to-date data releases (such as the Fed district surveys), that the trends shown in these charts are so far persisting.

 

3-Business SalesAnnual growth in business sales (red), inventories (green) and the inventory-to-sales ratio (blue) – click to enlarge.

 

Obviously, the last time declining business sales and a rising inventory-to-sales ratio were considered good things was “never”.

 

4-Business-sales-by-sectorBusiness sales by sector: y/Y change rate in overall sales (red), retail sales (green), wholesaler sales (purple), manufacturers sales (magenta) vs. the inventory-to-sales ratio (yellow area) – click to enlarge.

 

In typical business cycle fashion, industries in the higher stages of the production structure (further removed from the consumer) are showing the greatest volatility and are currently suffering the most due to the incipient downturn.

 

5-Busniness Inventories by sectorThis chart shows overall business sales in the yellow area and disaggregates the inventory-to-sales ratio (I/S) by sector. Retail I/S (purple), overall business I/S (blue), wholesalers I/S (green), manufacturers I/S (red) – click to enlarge.

 

6-Manufacturers, sales, orders, inventoriesSpotlight on manufacturing: y/y growth in new orders (green), sales (purple), inventories (red) and the inventory-to-sales ratio (blue) – click to enlarge.

 

7-Retail sales and inventoriesSpotlight on retail sales: y/y growth in sales (purple), inventories (red) and the inventory-to-sales ratio (blue) – click to enlarge.

 

8-Wholesale sales and inventoriesSpotlight on wholesalers sales: y/y growth in sales (purple), inventories (red) and the inventory-to-sales ratio (blue) – click to enlarge.

 

The next two charts show growth in total business sales and inventories relative to growth in employment:

 

9-Business sales vs employmentYear-on-year change rate in total business sales (red), non-farm payrolls/ establishment survey (light green) and employment/ household survey (blue) – click to enlarge.

 

10-Business inventories vs. employmentYear-on-year change rate in the overall business inventory-to-sales ratio (red), non-farm payrolls/ establishment survey (light green) and employment/ household survey (blue) – click to enlarge.

 

What is noteworthy about the foregoing two charts is that a large gap has developed between employment growth and business sales – the last time such a gap was seen was when it occurred to the upside, as the recovery in business sales (not surprisingly) led the the recovery in official unemployment data after the GFC.

It is fair to assume that business sales haven’t lost their leading indicator qualities. Keep in mind though that employment data have become quite skewed though by the surge in part-time jobs (which leads to what used to be counted as one job being counted as two) and the sharp decline in the labor force.

Another comparison chart worth looking at is the following, which contrasts business sales with junk bond spreads. The negative correlation between these two data series is more direct, although slight leads and lags do of course happen as well:

 

11-junk vs business salesBusiness sales growth (green) vs. junk bond spreads (blue) and the FF rate (red) – click to enlarge.

 

Lastly, as an addendum to the data on retail sales, here is a chart of the Redbook Index (weekly y/y growth rate in same-store sales). Over the past year this indicator has weakened considerably:

 

12-RedbookRedbook Index: a sales-weighted index of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.

 

None of this looks particularly encouraging, but it needs to be stressed that there is no guarantee yet that this weakness will lead to an official recession in the near term. However, if a recession is indeed in store, we should expect more definitive signals to this effect to emerge quite early next year.

 

Additional Remarks – Production Structure and Yield Curve

The long period of ZIRP and historically strong money supply growth has kept our boom-bust index – the ratio of capital to consumer goods production – moving sideways at an extremely elevated level for an unusually long time. We can infer from this that there is probably more capital malinvestment in the economy than is superficially obvious.

 

13-Cap vs. Consumer goods productionThe ratio of capital goods (business equipment) to consumer goods production, a rough indicator of the distribution of factors of production between the different/opposing stages of the capital structure. Typically it rises sharply during credit booms and contracts during bust periods – click to enlarge.

 

Finally, we wanted to briefly mention the yield curve. As a result of the Fed’s oddly timed rate hike, the yield curve has flattened quite rapidly recently. This brings us to the question whether it is necessary for the curve to invert before a recession can be forecast with confidence. As we have previously discussed (see The Yield Curve and Recessions), per experience this is actually not the case in ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) or near-ZIRP regimes.

Below we reproduce a chart from said article that shows the past six recessions in Japan contrasted to the Japanese yield curve (represented by very short and very long durations, i.e., 3 months vs. 10 years). Only one of them – the one that began immiediately after the major bubble of the 1980s had burst – was actually preceded by an inversion. We suspect that a mere flattenig of the curve must already be seen as a major warning sign during or on the heels of a ZIRP regime.

 

14-Japanese-yieldsJapan: the yield curve and recessions – there have been five recessions in the past 2 decades that were not preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. What they all had in common was that they occurred during the ZIRP era – click to enlarge.

 

Conclusion

We are a bit worried that a consensus seems to be emerging lately that the Fed will soon “backtrack” from its rate hike. For the time being we believe so as well though, based on the data backdrop discussed above. It could however be that the Fed will get one or two more hikes in (even the BoJ once managed to implement two consecutive rate hikes – back when most of today’s stock market traders were still pimply teenagers).

This will largely depend on whether the above trends persist in the near term, as well as on asset prices, especially the stock market. All of this will in turn depend on whether the overarching downtrend in money supply growth rates continues (or perhaps even accelerates), or reverses again. So there are a great many moving parts, and we will have to wait and see how they develop. We would however say that it mainly comes down the question of whether the backtracking happens somewhat “sooner” or “later”.

 

Addendum: Modified Ned Davis Method Signal

We actually forgot to alert readers that according to Frank Roellinger, the Modified Ned Davis Method has gone 50% short the Russell 2000 as of Friday, December 11. However, net-net no major move has taken place yet since then (the RUT is actually a trifle higher as we write this). As always, the system’s signal to switch from flat to partly short represents an additional short to medium term warning signal for the stock market until it is rescinded again.

 

Charts by: ECRI, Michael Pollaro, St. Louis Federal Reserve Research, investing.com

 

 
 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 
 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Gold - Ready to Spring Another Surprise
      Sentiment Extremes Below is an update of a number of interesting data points related to the gold market. Whether “interesting” will become “meaningful” remains to be seen, as most of gold's fundamental drivers aren't yet bullishly aligned. One must keep in mind though that gold is very sensitive with respect to anticipating future developments in market liquidity and the reaction these will elicit from central banks. Often this involves very long lead times.   Blackbeard's...
  • Modi’s Great Leap Forward
      India’s Currency Ban – Part VIII India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, Part-V, Part-VI and Part-VII, which provide updates on the demonetization saga and how Modi is acting as a catalyst to hasten the rapid degradation of India and what remains of its institutions.   India’s Pride and Joy   Indians are...
  • Global Recession and Other Visions for 2017
      Conjuring Up Visions Today’s a day for considering new hopes, new dreams, and new hallucinations.  The New Year is here, after all.  Now is the time to turn over a new leaf and start afresh. Naturally, 2017 will be the year you get exactly what’s coming to you. Both good and bad.  But what else will happen?   Image of a recently discarded vision... Image by Michael Del Mundo   Here we begin by closing our eyes and slowing our breath.  We let our mind...
  • The Great El Monte Public Pension Swindle
      Nowhere City California There are places in Southern California where, although the sun always shines, they haven’t seen a ray of light for over 50-years.  There’s a no man’s land of urban blight along Interstate 10, from East Los Angeles through the San Gabriel Valley, where cities you’ve never heard of and would never go to, are jumbled together like shipping containers on Terminal Island.  El Monte, California, is one of those places.   Advice dispensed on Interstate...
  • A Trade Deal Trump Cannot Improve
      Worst in Class BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things.   Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said: "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was your age, I always did it for...
  • Pope Francis Now International Monetary Guru
      Neo-Marxist Pope Francis Argues for Global Central Bank As the new year dawns, it seems the current occupant of St. Peter’s Chair will take on a new function which is outside the purview of the office that the Divine Founder of his institution had clearly mandated.   Neo-Papist transmogrification. We highly recommend the economic thought of one of Francis' storied predecessors, John Paul II, which we have written about on previous occasions. In “A Tale of Two Popes” and...
  • Trump’s Trade Catastrophe?
      “Trade Cheaters” It is worse than “voodoo economics,” says former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. It is the “economic equivalent of creationism.” Wait a minute -  Larry Summers is wrong about almost everything. Could he be right about this?   Larry Summers, the man who is usually wrong about almost everything. As we have always argued, the economy is much safer when he sleeps, so his tendency to fall asleep on all sorts of occasions should definitely be welcomed....
  • Where’s the Outrage?
      Blind to Crony Socialism Whenever a failed CEO is fired with a cushy payoff, the outrage is swift and voluminous.  The liberal press usually misrepresents this as a hypocritical “jobs for the boys” program within the capitalist class.  In reality, the payoffs are almost always contractual obligations, often for deferred compensation, that the companies vigorously try to avoid.  Believe me.  I’ve been on both sides of this kind of dispute (except, of course, for the “failed”...
  • Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle
      A Difference of Opinions In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. In his The Case for 100 Percent Gold Dollar Rothbard wrote:   I therefore advocate as the soundest monetary system and the only one fully compatible with the free market and with the absence of force or fraud...
  • Silver’s Got Fundamentals - Precious Metals Supply-Demand Report
      Supply-Demand Fundamentals Improve Noticeably Last week was another short week, due to the New Year holiday. We look forward to getting back to our regularly scheduled market action.   Photo via thedailycoin.org   The prices of both metals moved up again this week. Something very noticeable is occurring in the supply and demand fundamentals. We will give an update on that, but first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices.   Prices of gold and silver...
  • Trump’s Plan to Close the Trade Deficit with China
      Rags to Riches Jack Ma is an amiable fellow.  Back in 1994, while visiting the United States he decided to give that newfangled internet thing a whirl.  At a moment of peak inspiration, he executed his first search engine request by typing in the word beer.   Jack Ma, founder and CEO of Alibaba, China's largest e-commerce firm. Once he was a school teacher, but it turned out that he had enormous entrepreneurial talent and that the world of wheelers, dealers, movers and...
  • Side Notes, January 14 - Red Flags Over Goldman Sachs
      Red Flags Over Goldman Sachs Just to prove that I am an even-handed insulter, here is a rant about my former employer, Goldman Sachs. The scandal at 1MDB, the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund from which it appears that billions were stolen by politicians all the way up to the Prime Minister, continues to unfold.   The main players in the 1MDB scandal. Irony alert: apparently money siphoned off from 1MDB was used to inter alia finance Martin Scorcese's movie “The Wolf of...

Austrian Theory and Investment

Support Acting Man

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

j9TJzzN

350x200

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com