We’ll Have to Add Them to the Endangered Species List …

 

bearThe kind of bad-ass bear that inhabits nightmares. You don’t want to meet this one when he’s in a bad mood

(Photo via badassoftheweek.com)

 

As we recently pointed out, stock market bears are a dying breed (see “Total Capitulation of the Bears” for details). The WWF’s official endangered species list contains only a handful of members of the family Ursidae, which range from “vulnerable” (polar bear) to “least concern” (brown bear). The Wall Street bear clearly is in a lot more danger.

What prompts this missive is news that yet another prominent bear has apparently given up. The thing is, this bear – Wells Fargo analyst Gina Martin Adams – wasn’t even a bear, but merely a somewhat reluctant bull, whose targets got taken out a few times. It is interesting from a psychological perspective that a not overly foaming-at-the-mouth bull is considered a “bear” by the financial media, a “famous bear” even. She has now recanted, and has apparently been preceded by several others. An SPX target of 1850 points apparently made her the “most bearish strategist” on Wall Street!

 

“Gina Martin Adams of Wells Fargo has long been known as the most bearish strategist on Wall Street. After all, at 1,850, she had the lowest year-end S&P target among major strategists. But on Tuesday, she got rid of that year-end target and initiated at 12-month target of 2,100, reflecting a mildly bullish outlook.

“We’ve thought for most of this year that we’d have a bit of a trade-off for stocks—earnings growth improving, but the timeline is shrinking for this very accomodative Fed policy environment,” Adams said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

“We think that’s still intact, but quite frankly, earnings have started to take over,” meaning that any volatility that accompanies Federal Reservetightening will serve as a buying opportunity.

She isn’t the first strategist to change her stripes. Adams’ 1,850 target (which at the beginning of the year merely predicted a flat market, but has become more bearish as the market has risen 8 percent) was shared by David Bianco at Deutsche Bank and Barry Bannister at Stifel Nicolaus. But both have recently increased their calls—to 2,050 in Bianco’s case, and 2,300 in Bannister’s.

That fresh price target now makes Bannister the Street’s most bullish analyst for 2014. (Although it’s worth noting Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity, previously the Street’s biggest bull, did reduce that gap on Tuesday by raising his year-end target from 2,185 to 2,230.)

 

(emphasis added)

Naturally, Ms. Martin Adams was none too happy to be called a bear for the crime of merely forecasting a flat market and was eager to set the record straight. CNBC noted with relief that her new SPX target will help her to finally “shake the bear label”.

Well, those fierce creatures like the one in the picture above are by now certainly no longer with us. The modern-day bear looks more like this:

 

 

thebearwasconfused-thumbConfused bear in “leave me alone” pose.

(Photo via soslan-oss.livejournal.com)

 

Bears come in all stripes of course. The ones predicting crashes and massive declines can probably be classified as “polar bears”. We regret to inform you though that they have an especially difficult time these days.

 

suicidal bear
Good-bye, cruel world. I’ve had it.

(Photo via mixcloud.com)

 

Given that no prominent bearish Wall Street strategists seem to be left now – not even those forecasting 5% dips or flat markets – we won’t be able to report on any additional conversions.

 

Conclusion:

It is a bad sign for the market when all the bears give up. If no-one is left to be converted, it usually means no-one is left to buy.

 
 

 
 

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One Response to “Another Sort – Of Bear Keels Over”

  • What was the saying? The market can be irrational longer than the bears money will last? I will let you know when I capitulate, because that will be the sell signal of the century.

    12 month 2100 target is not exactly a reason to stay involved in this bomb. There is more carry in this market than in the Chinese food business. The only people that will have money when this one fades will be the sellers. Runs rarely last 6 years. Time for this bull to be put out to pasture.

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