EU Skepticism Still Growing in Germany
The recent state election in the Free State of Saxony already indicated as much: EU-skepticism is alive and well in Germany, even with the imminent threat from the EU’s sovereign debt and banking crisis on the back-burner.
This has now been further confirmed by the release of an Emnid survey (Emnid is a large polling company in Germany, comparable to Gallup), according to which 22% of German voters can imagine voting for the AdF (“Alternative für Deutschland”), an EU-skeptic party formed in February of 2013).
Note here that “could imagine to vote for” is not the same as “would vote for if the election were held tomorrow” – based on that, the party would receive only 6% of the nation-wide vote, which is however a clear improvement over the actual result in the last parliamentary election. Note that the party received 7% in the European election, which was a quite respectable, though not sensational result.
European election 2014: the AfD received a respectable 7% of the vote
If the party plays its cards right, it could be well on the way to transforming itself from a much derided fringe party into a major political force. In many ways, its ascent seems comparable to that of UKIP in the UK. Given that the survey was concluded on September 3, the most recent ECB decision hasn’t influenced the result, so it should be expected that support for the AfD has in the meantime solidified further. Apart from a handful of ivory tower Keynesian economists, no-one in Germany is in favor of more money printing by the ECB.
As in many other countries, the major hot button issue is unfortunately the populist topic of immigration restrictions, something the party is likely to emphasize in light of its popularity with voters. However, other major planks of the party’s program apparently also resonate with German voters. Here is an overview of some of the survey responses regarding prominent AfD issues and the party itself:
83% of respondents agree that immigration must be subject to strict rules
45% of respondents agree that as a general principle, families with three children (which the AfD propagates) would be a good thing
33% believe Germany doesn’t need the euro
23% expect the party to play an important role in German politics in the future, 71% still disagree with that notion
64% disagree with the assertion that the AfD is a far-right party, 17% agree.
To the above we would note that the while the AfD certainly represents “bourgeois” viewpoints, it is definitely not a “far right” party. The mainstream press tried to stick it with this label based on its stance on immigration, a fate also suffered by UKIP. However, there is a strong qualitative difference between parties like UKIP and the AfD and France’s Front National (FN), which can genuinely be classified as being “far right”.
It is noteworthy in this context that UKIP refused to join a coalition with the FN in Brussels, in spite of the fact that this potentially meant passing on millions in euros in funding (however, UKIP eventually managed to form the Europe of Freedom and Democracy faction, by snatching a defector from the FN). The AfD likewise is not in the same faction in Brussels as the FN, but is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which includes the UK’s Tories (incidentally, as Mish reports, the FN’s leader Marine Le Pen would win in a presidential election against Mr. Hollande if it were held today).
There is considerable political push-back against the EU’s centralizers now. Even if EU-skeptical parties are unable to gain majorities, their growing support is likely to influence the policies of mainstream parties. Established parties must fear that they their support will erode more and more. In Germany, the once strong social democrats (SPD) have already become a smallish party (recent survey see its support crumbling ever further), while the FDP (liberals), a small party that has been a mainstay of post WW 2 Germany, has almost been wiped out. Whether this will lastingly influence the centralization process and weaken the powers of Brussels remains to be seen, but it is a start.
AfD leader Bernd Lücke in front of an election poster. The inscription reads: “Draghi gambles, you pay”.
(Photo credit: DPA)
You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.
Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke
One Response to “German Opinion Poll: 22% Can Imagine Voting for AfD”
Most read in the last 20 days:
- Gold Sector: Positioning and Sentiment
A Case of Botched Timing, But... When last we wrote about the gold sector in mid February, we discussed historical patterns in the HUI following breaches of its 200-day moving average from below. Given that we expected such a breach to occur relatively soon, the post turned out to be rather ill-timed. Luckily we always advise readers that we are not exactly Nostradamus (occasionally our timing is a bit better). Below is a chart of the HUI Index depicting the action since the January...
- India: The next Pakistan?
India’s Rapid Degradation This is Part XI of a series of articles (the most recent of which is linked here) in which I have provided regular updates on what started as the demonetization of 86% of India's currency. The story of demonetization and the ensuing developments were merely a vehicle for me to explore Indian institutions, culture and society. The Modimobile is making the rounds amid a flower shower. [PT] Photo credit: PTI Photo Tribal cultures face...
- March to Default
Style Over Substance “May you live in interesting times,” says the ancient Chinese curse. No doubt about it, we live in interesting times. Hardly a day goes by that we’re not aghast and astounded by a series of grotesque caricatures of the world as at devolves towards vulgarity. Just this week, for instance, U.S. Representative Maxine Waters tweeted, “Get ready for impeachment.” Well, Maxine Waters is obviously right – impeaching the president is an urgent...
- The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus
Onward vs. Upward Something both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century. Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward. Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired. What happened to the miracle? The Keynesian wet dream of an unfettered fiat debt money system has been realized, and debt has been duly expanded at every opportunity. Although the fat lady has so far only...
- Welcome to Totalitarian America, President Trump!
Trump vs. the Deep State If there had been any doubt that the land of the free and home of the brave is now a totalitarian society, the revelations that its Chief Executive Officer has been spied upon while campaigning for that office and during his brief tenure as president should now be allayed. Image adapted from the cover of “Deep State #5” - depicting an assassin from the future President Trump joins the very crowded list of opponents of the American...
- Searching for Truth
Heresy or Truth? RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – In the fifth century, Christian scholars counted 88 different heresies. Arianism. Eutychianism. Nestorianism. If there was a way to “offend” God, they had a name for it. One group of “heretics” argued that there was no such thing as “original sin.” Another denied the trinity. And another claimed Jesus was not divine. Which one had the truth? Depiction of the first Council of Ephesus in 431 AD, convened by Emperor...
- Gold and the Fed's Looming Rate Hike in March
Long Term Technical Backdrop Constructive After a challenging Q4 in 2016 in the context of rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar, gold seems to be getting its shine back in Q1. The technical picture is beginning to look a little more constructive and the “reflation trade”, spurred on further by expectations of higher infrastructure spending and tax cuts in the US, has thus far also benefited gold. From a technical perspective, there are indications that the low at $1045.40,...
- The Unstable Empire – A Campfire Tale
Campfire Tale Caesar: The Ides of March are come. Soothsayer: Ay, Caesar, but not gone. — Julius Caesar, Shakespeare GRANADA, NICARAGUA – Today, we stop the horses and circle the wagons. For 19 years, we have been rolling along, exploring, discovering. We began with the assumption that we didn’t “know” anything - so we kept our eyes open. Now we know even less. Famous people who knew nothing and were not shy to admit it: Sergeant Schultz...
- Why Silver Went Down – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Rumor-Mongering vs. Data The question on the lips of everyone who plans to exchange his metal for dollars—widely thought to be money—is why did silver go down? The price of silver in dollar terms dropped from about 18 bucks to about 17, or about 5 percent. Reportedly silver was already assassinated in the late 19th century... so last week they must have assassinated its corpse. [PT] Illustration taken from 'Coin's Financial School' The facile answer is...
- Systematic Trading - Unwrapping the Onion
Lumpy but Robust [ed note: this article has originally appeared at the Evil Speculator and was written by trader and ES contributor Scott. We provide a link to Scott's past articles below this post for readers who want to get more familiar with his ideas and/or any unusual terminology used in this article] One continual theme in my trading is that every time I think I have it figured out, I get punched in the face by an unexpected problem. The tendency is to go more...
- LIBOR Pains
Wrong Focus If one searches for news on LIBOR (=London Interbank Offered Rate, i.e., the rate at which banks lend dollars to each other in the euro-dollar market), they are currently dominated by Deutsche Bank getting slapped with a total fine of $775 million for the part it played in manipulating the benchmark rate in collusion with other banks (fine for one count of wire fraud: US$150 m.; additional shakedown by US Justice Department: US$625 m., the price tag for a deferred prosecution...
- “People Need to Understand that their Biggest Asset is Individual Liberty” - an Interview with Claudio Grass
Preserving Liberty in a Difficult Time In his latest interview for the X22 Report, Claudio Grass shares his views on the future of the Euro, the Trump Presidency, the monetary system and the advantage of of owning gold in these times of global uncertainty. Claudio Grass, managing director at Global Gold As election season is upon us in Europe and political and economic tensions are heating up, Claudio Grass notes that “the euro is the most artificial...