A Noteworthy Warning

Obviously, during a bubble one cannot get timing advice from John Hussman, and certainly not from us either (our guest author Frank Roellinger and his strict trend-following system are probably far more useful for this purpose- see 'The Modified Davis Method' for details). We can only provide some background information on money supply growth trends and the occasional update on technical conditions. Apart from that, we are frequently wont to pointing out that risk in the market seems quite large – but there is no telling when this risk will manifest itself. What we feel fairly certain about is that when it does manifest itself, it will catch many people unawares, and a lot of the gains that have been made will be given back in a lot less time than it took to attain them.

However, there is another man who is probably worth heeding regarding timing questions, namely Jim Stack. We say this because Stack turned very bullish early on in the recent bull market, and correctly stayed bullish even when the euro-land debt crisis made it appear in 2011 as though the market was on its way back down. We therefore noted with interest that according to a recent press report, Stack is very cautious at the moment:

 

“One of the first independent advisers to call the current bull market is now raising a cautionary flag. James Stack, president of Stack Investment Research, warns subscribers to his newsletter, InvesTech Research, that the 5-year-old bull is aging rapidly. Although he hasn’t recommended selling stocks just yet, he says risk is rising and has one eye on the exits.

Attention must be paid. Early in his career, Stack, along with the late, great Marty Zweig, predicted the 1987 stock market crash. Twenty years later, in August 2007, he wrote: “We are taking steps to reduce exposure as warning flags increase.”

But unlike some perma-bears who never know when to quit, Stack turned bullish again in early 2009. I remember a conversation at a conference in Orlando that February in which he made the case for a new bull market while I was still very doom-and-gloom.

[…]

In a telephone interview from his headquarters in idyllic Whitefish, Mont., last week, Stack pointed out that 2013’s nearly 30% gain in the S&P was the 10th largest in the last 85 years. “I don’t think anyone who was positive on the outlook for 2013 could have expected the size of the advance we’ve seen…,” he told me. Meanwhile, he said, economic trends are “all entering 2014 in strong fashion,” presenting “little probability of a recession in the first half or three quarters of the year.”

But, he wrote in his most recent newsletter, “a strong economic outlook doesn’t negate the possibility of a bear market. The stock market leads the economy, and market peaks precede the start of recession by 5.5 months on average.”

All in all, he told me, “both macroeconomic and technical [indicators] still support more bull market highs in 2014.” But he’s getting worried. “Technically we’re about 15% above long-term historical valuations,” he said. The S&P 500 trades at 19x trailing-12-month earnings, vs. an average of 17x trailing earnings. And then there’s the calendar, particularly the four-year presidential cycle, which is of great interest to technicians and market historians. “The middle two quarters of a midterm election year are historically the weakest,” he said.”

 

(emphasis added)

Given that Jim Stack is a veteran of the markets and has made a number of quite prescient calls in the course of his career, we certainly agree that 'attention should be paid' to what he is saying. Interestingly he mentions the presidential cycle – we recently showed a chart of the average performance of the US stock market during mid term election years as well (i.e., the second year of the president's term). As a reminder, here it is again:

 


 

PresCycle

The average mid term election performance of the SPX from 1928 to today (blue line) vs. the 'average of all years' (red line), via Mike Burk – click to enlarge.

 


 

Below is a weekly chart of the SPX over the past three years. What is noteworthy is the wedge-like shape of the advance, as well as the recent multi-month divergence of the NYSE McClellan oscillator. Similar divergences were in evidence at previous market peaks.

As an aside, Stack may be right when he states that there is still time, as the market has a tendency to retest its highs or even make a new high in April in mid-term election years. Note also that a fairly weak January performance is apparently normal. Keep in mind though that it is not likely that the market will follow the template precisely.

One very notable historical market peak actually occurred in January, namely in early January 1973. This is worth mentioning because at the time the market had also just broken out to new highs and sentiment was almost as unanimously bullish as it is today (we say 'almost' because it was probably not quite as extreme as nowadays. At the end of 2013, new record highs in bullish sentiment were recorded in several indicators, but many of these indicators didn't exist in 1973, so a direct comparison is not possible). Even Alan Greenspan said two day before the 1973 peak that “there is no reason to be anything but bullish”.  :)

 


 

SPX, weeklySPX weekly over the past three years: a large wedge-like advance, accompanied by a notable breadth divergence since the middle of last year – click to enlarge.

 


 

 

 

Charts by: Mike Burk, StockCharts


 

 
 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 
 

 

Dear Readers! We are happy to report that we have reached our turn-of-the-year funding goal and want to extend a special thank you to all of you who have chipped in. We are very grateful for your support! As a general remark, according to usually well informed circles, exercising the donation button in between funding drives is definitely legal and highly appreciated as well.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

5 Responses to “US Stock Market – Jim Stack Grows Cautious”

  • Aka77:

    Dear Pater,

    Thanks for your excellent work.
    I have two questions about money supply growth and the stock market.
    Firstly,you mentioned in many of your articles that currently bank credit growth is almost non existent and that most of the inflation comes from the Fed QE program, via banks creating deposits to buy treasuries that they then pass over to the Fed. I recall reading Rothbard say that the business cycle can occur only if credit is expanded to businesses, otherwise credit to consumers/gov cannot create the business cycle (as it finances consumption and does not distort the production structure). Can you help me reconcile these two facts? Maybe banks do indeed create money to buy treasuries, but then this money finds a way to drift into the business sector (maybe through record bond issuance etc.)?
    Secondly, I get your point that in order to have a bust a slowdown in money supply growth is necessary and yet if I look at a chart that compares TMS YoY growth to the SPX, I see that this relationship seems to have worked only since the 2000 bust: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=r74
    As an example the huge slowdown that occurred in the mid 90s did not bring about any meaningful stock market crash. Am I missing something or is there another way to look at this that confirms your point(which I find theoretically very sound)?
    Thanks!

    • Aka77:

      I’ ve been looking into this a bit more and maybe my initial suspicion is right.Maybe the apparent breakdown in the relationship between TMS growth rates and the stock market is due to the fact that sweeps were introduced in the 90s and if I am not mistaken the formula you generally use to calculate TMS (which is the one I used in the above chart) does not account for this fact.

  • roger:

    While the record is undeniably excellent, it’s strange he could time the market so well by while holding the contemporary falsehood that is “the stock market leads the economy”. This is one of the falsehood that was refuted convincingly a while ago in one of your articles.

  • Hans:

    I am looking to short the market, gold and oil in the next sixty days.

  • No6:

    I would not be surprised to see this crash in Feb.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • safe spaceReality is a Formidable Enemy
      Political Correctness Comedy We have recently come across a video that is simply too funny not be shared. It also happens to dovetail nicely with our friend Claudio's recent essay on political correctness and cultural Marxism. Since this is generally a rather depressing topic, we have concluded that having a good laugh at it might not be the worst idea.   How to most effectively create a “safe space” on campus Cartoon by Nate Beeler   It is especially funny (or...
  • Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewellery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh May 8, 2012. Gold imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of bullion, could rise on pent-up demand from jewellers after the federal government decided to scrap an excise duty on jewellery it imposed in March, the head of a trade body said on Monday. REUTERS/Ajay Verma (INDIA - Tags: BUSINESS COMMODITIES)Fresh Mainstream Nonsense on Gold Demand
      They Will Never Get It... We and many others have made a valiant effort over the years to explain what actually moves the gold market (as examples see e.g. our  article “Misconceptions About Gold”, or Robert Blumen's excellent essay “Misunderstanding Gold Demand”).  Sometimes it is a bit frustrating when we realize it has probably all been for naught.   Gold wants to know what it has done now... Photo credit: Ajay Verma / Reuters   This was brought home to...
  • fir wateringDrowning the Fir
      Presidential Duties Our editor recently stumbled upon an image in one of the more obscure corners of the intertubes which we felt we had to share with our readers. It provides us with a nice metaphor for the meaningfulness of government activity. First, here is a look at the picture – just quietly contemplate it for while and let it work its magic on you:   Yes, these two gentlemen are actually watering a tree in the middle of a downpour... Photo via...
  • swiss-cultureSwitzerland About to Vote on “Free Lunch” for Everyone
      Will the Swiss Guarantee CHF 75,000 for Every Family? In early June the Swiss will be called upon to make a historic decision. Switzerland is the first country worldwide to put the idea of an Unconditional Basic Income to a vote and the outcome of this referendum will set a strong precedent and establish a landmark in the evolution of this debate.   The Swiss Basic Income Initiative in a demonstration in front of parliament. As we have previously reported (see “Swiss...
  • Hollande 2The Wonder Years Are Over
      Everybody Is Unhappy PARIS – “France?” We were in a cab on the way from Charles de Gaulle Airport yesterday. We had innocently asked our cab driver how things were going in the country. He had some thoughts...   French president Francois Hollande: against all odds, he managed to attain the most powerful position in French society. And yet, even he is unhappy. Photo credit: Patrick Kovarik / AFP   “France is a mess. We have 5 million people unemployed. And...
  • mossack fonsecaGold – The Commitments of Traders
      Commercial and Non-Commercial Market Participants The commitments of traders in gold futures are beginning to look a bit concerning these days – we will explain further below why this is so. Some readers may well be wondering why an explanation is even needed. Isn't it obvious? Superficially, it sure looks that way.     As the following chart of the net position of commercial hedgers illustrates, their position is currently at quite an extended...
  • picture-social-contract-not-foundHeretical Thoughts and Doing the Unthinkable
      Heresy! NORMANDY, France – The Dow rose 222 points on Tuesday – or just over 1%. But we agree with hedge-fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller: This is not a good time to be a U.S. stock market bull.   Legendary former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller at the Ira Sohn conference – not an optimist at present, to put it mildly. Photo credit: David A. Grogan / CNBC   Speaking at an investment conference in New York last week, George Soros’ former partner...
  • ClintotrumpStaying Home on Election Day
      Pretenses and Conceits The markets are eerily quiet… like an angry man with something on his mind and a shotgun in his hand. We will leave them to brood… and return to the spectacle of the U.S. presidential primaries. On display are all the pretenses, conceits, and absurdities of modern government. And now, the race narrows to the two most widely distrusted and loathed candidates.   US election circus: Deep State Rep vs. Rage Channeller   The first, a loose...
  • Jackboot 2How the Deep State’s Cronies Steal From You
      Expanding in Ireland DUNMORE EAST, Ireland – We came down the coast from Dublin to check on our new office building. For this visit, we wanted to stay somewhere different than we normally do. So we chose a small hotel on the coast, called the Strand Inn.   Irish landscape with alien landing pads. Even the guys from Rigel II have heard about Ireland's corporate tax rate. Photo credit: Tourism Ireland   It is an excellent place for seafood and soda bread on a...
  • time100-grid-covers-whiteThe World's 100 Most Influential Hacks, Yahoos and Monkey Shiners
      Hacks and Has-Beens NORMANDY, France – What has happened to TIME magazine? Henry Luce, who started TIME – the first weekly news magazine in the U.S. – would be appalled to see what it has become.   Time cover featuring the sunburned mummy heading the globalist IMF bureaucracy (which inter alia advocates that governments should confiscate a portion of the wealth of their citizens overnight, even while its own employees don't have to pay a single cent in taxes). Once you...
  • YenThe Japanese Popsicle Affair
      Policy-Induced Contrition in Japan As we keep saying, there really is no point in trying to make people richer by making them poorer – which is what Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda have been trying to do for the past several years. Not surprisingly, they have so to speak only succeeded in achieving the second part of the equation: they have certainly managed to impoverish their fellow Japanese citizens.   Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda, professional yen assassins Photo credit:...
  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda attends a news conference at the BOJ headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, December 18, 2015.  REUTERS/Toru HanaiKuroda-San in the Mouth of Madness
      Deluded Central Planners Zerohedge recently reported on an interview given by Lithuanian ECB council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, which demonstrates how utterly deluded the central planners in the so-called “capitalist” economies of the West have become. His statements are nothing short of bizarre (“we are magic guys!”) – although he is of course correct when he states that a central bank can never “run out of ammunition”.   BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda Photo credit:...

Austrian Theory and Investment

Support Acting Man

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

j9TJzzN

350x200

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com