- The Stock Market in Trouble - How Bad Can it Get?
A Look at the Broader Market's Internals
We have previously discussed the stock market's deteriorating internals, and in light of recent market weakness want to take a brief look at the broader market in the form if the NYSE Index (NYA). First it has to be noted that a majority of the stocks in the NYA are already in bearish trends. The chart below shows the NYA and the percentage of stocks above their 200 day and 50 day moving averages, which is 39.16% and 33.77% respectively.
- Gold Stocks at an Interesting Juncture
A Fascinating Parallel
We have recently discussed the sentiment and positioning backdrop in gold on two separate occasion, as it has once again reached rarely encountered extremes (see “Gold Panic” and “Gold and the Grave Dancers” for details).
Image via bullionstreet.com
Not much has changed on that front, except for the fact that small speculators have increased their net short position in COMEX gold futures to the highest level in nearly three decades last...
- Gold Stocks: A Playable Rally May Be Beginning as Junk Bonds Crater
Gold Stocks Jump and Retrace 50%
Last week we discussed the potential for a rally in the gold sector (see: “Gold Stocks at an Interesting Juncture” for details). Gold stocks jumped early in the week and then retraced almost precisely 50% of the initial move higher, in the process closing a gap that was left behind on Wednesday.
Image credit: dreamstime.com
Interestingly, for the first time in many months, there were three up days in a row prior to the...
- A new Multi-Year High in Buying by Gold Sector Insiders
Latest Data from INK Show A Huge Surge in Insider Buying
As our friends at INK Research in Canada have pointed out to us, insiders at gold companies have made use of the recent sell-off in the sector to load up on shares to an extent not seen in many years.
Image source: bidness etc
The INK insider buy/sell indicator for gold stocks has peaked just one day after China's initial devaluation announcement at nearly 1,200%:
INK's gold insider sentiment...
- The Trump Phenomenon
We were wondering a while if there was anything we could say about the highly entertaining real estate mogul who has successfully hijacked the Republican nomination process – apart from the fact that he is sporting a haircut that looks a bit like a helicopter landing pad, endowing him with instant recognizability:
Teflon-Donald Trump, the unlikely front-runner with the interesting haircut
Photo credit: Dominick Reuter / Reuters
- Is Crude Oil Close to a Low?
Everybody knows that there is a never-ending glut in crude oil, right? Who knew about it a year ago? Not everybody, that much is certain. The problem with what everybody knows is of course that it is often not worth knowing.
Photo credit: Alamy
Today a friend pointed two articles out to us that have been published yesterday and today. Their headlines say it all. The Wall Street Journal writes “No End in Sight for Oil Glut” - and proceeds to...
- The Stock Market's Panic Potential
The Odds Favor a “Warning Shot” Scenario - but there is a “But”
As regular readers have probably noticed, we have upped the frequency of our “caution is advised” posts on the stock market in recent weeks in light of the market's increasingly deteriorating internals. Although one never knows when exactly such warning signs may begin to matter, it is always a good bet that they eventually will. Last week the market delivered a little wake-up call to the hitherto rather...
- The Donald and China, or The Fallacy of Protectionism
Not Every Populist Topic is Worth Exploiting
For reasons that will forever remain a mystery to us, mercantilism and protectionism actually hold enormous popular appeal. The best explanation we can come up with for this phenomenon is that the support for such policies is based on a mixture of economic ignorance and relentless propaganda by vested interests over the past, say, four centuries. Still, it is almost comical that people are so vociferously clamoring for policies that can actually...
- The Economy is in Liquidation Mode
If you’re an American over a certain age, you remember roller skating rinks (I have no idea if it caught on in other countries). This industry boomed in the 1970’s disco era. However, by the mid 1980’s, the fad was fading. Imagine running a rink company at the end of the craze. You know it is not going to survive for long. How do you operate your business?
The birthplace of roller disco turned out to be edible, sort of
- Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report 9 August, 2015
Withdrawing the Gold Bid
Last week, we left off with this:
“Something is happening with gold…”
It began in Dec 2008. To understand it, it is necessary to understand two principles. The first is that gold is money and the dollar is credit, which currently has nontrivial value. A dollar is worth 28.4mg gold. To understand the second, let’s look at how markets work at the mechanical level.
An assortment of well-known bullion coins and bars from all...