The Most Speculative Sectors Are Going Wild
Yours truly remembers late 1999/early 2000 well. It was a time that could be best described as 'waiting for the tech crash'. One of the most striking features of the final blow-off surge of the tech mania was its sheer size (the final legs up in the 1920's bubble and the Nikkei bubble of the 1980s were far more subdued by comparison). However, what was even more fascinating was how thoroughly caution was thrown out of the window. Completely worthless paper started to rise, just as long as it could be argued that it had remotely to do with technology. The stories became ever more fantastic as time went on ('superconductor stocks', 'space stocks', you name it). The action finally moved into OTC BB listed and pink sheet stocks, the 'micro-cap' names, most of which no-one had ever heard before. Day traders (a large population at the time) took notice and began to scour the charts of these stocks for 'pretty looking' formations that may result in break-out moves. And rightly so, since many such moves did in fact happen, even if the underlying companies had never produced a red cent in earnings or revenues, and had no realistic hope of ever doing so. These days one no longer needs to expose oneself to the 'company specific risk' of micro-caps. Today there is an ETF for everything. Guess which one has just 'gone vertical'.
Of course one must admit that the action these days is different from the full-blown mania of 2000, which was a near perfect reenactment of 1929 in terms of surging public participation and wildly bullish sentiment. Nowadays, even with the indexes at new highs, there is an undertone to the proceedings that feels different. The public is no longer mesmerized by stocks and the get-rich-quick mentality has definitely expired. These days it is mostly professionals bidding stocks up in the hope of greater fools letting them out 'when the time comes' (if all of them realize in real time when that dreaded day arrives, the market will of course go 'no bid'). All in all, it feels more 1937nish than 1929nish.
The micro-caps are accompanied in their manic surge by small cap indexes like the Russell 2000. Usually, outperformance by the Russell 2000 index is considered bullish, and most of the time rightly so. But one must not lose sight of the fact that when such outperformance becomes extreme, it can also constitute a warning sign (just as the normally bullish outperformance of the Nasdaq index constituted one in early 2000).
One reason to continue to look a bit askance at this extremely strong performance is the fact that speculators in stock index futures hold their by far greatest net long exposure in precisely this riskiest market sector. In the large and mini Russell contracts combined, this exposure has grown to a record value of $27 billion, by far the largest of any stock index futures contract.
A chart of the commitments of traders in Russell 2000 futures (big contract). The value of the total net speculative long position in large and mini Russell 2000 futures combined has reached a new record high of nearly $27 billion – click to enlarge.
Sentiment surveys generally show an amount of giddiness appropriate to the price action, but what may be more important than this fact is that there exist now both short and long term divergences with prices.
First a look at a short term divergence, between the AAII bull-bear ratio and the S&P 500 Index:
A longer term sentiment divergence can be (inter alia) seen in the Market Vane bullish consensus. Here we compare the 2007 situation to today's:
More Technical Divergences
When looking at the SPX, we were struck by two facts: for one thing, there is now a price/momentum divergence in place as a result of the recent brief correction. What may be more important though is that there is a divergence between the SPX and the strongest stock index in Europe, Germany's DAX. Of course all these divergences may still be erased, but they certainly are a 'heads up' one would do well not to ignore.
S&P 500 Index: momentum divergences and a divergence with the DAX index (the green line below volume) – click to enlarge.
Of course, none of this may matter – as our friend B.C. reminded us today, the SPX and the monetary base continue to track each other very closely, and as we all know, the monetary base is set to continue to rise for months to come.
However, as John Hussman has pointed out a little while ago, there is at least one data series that correlates even better with the US monetary base: the price of beer in Iceland. Correlation does not always mean causation.
And slightly off topic, in the context of odd correlations, we would be remiss not to tell our readers about this chart recently posted by '' on twitter. Finally we learn the true reason about global warming: it's not the fault of too much CO2 in the atmosphere, it is too much debt relative to GDP that is the culprit.
In our last update we pointed out that there were good reasons to be on alert for the possibility that a distribution pattern may be put in place. Since slight new highs have been made since then, no typical distribution pattern has formed yet (and the question whether a major peak has already been seen has been answered in the negative).
Nevertheless, the idea that we could at the very least be on the cusp of a bigger correction has actually been strengthened in light of the above. Especially the blow-off moves in the most speculative market sectors and the divergence between SPX and DAX strike us as important factoids in this context (recall also the previously discussed SPX/emerging markets divergence; it is the fact that divergences are showing up with very high frequency recently that is especially concerning). These are phenomena frequently observed prior to major trend reversals.
Charts by: StockCharts, Sentimentrader, B.C., Not-Jim-Cramer
Dear Readers! We are happy to report that we have reached our turn-of-the-year funding goal and want to extend a special thank you to all of you who have chipped in. We are very grateful for your support! As a general remark, according to usually well informed circles, exercising the donation button in between funding drives is definitely legal and highly appreciated as well.
Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke
One Response to “The Stock Market – Shades of Early 2000?”
Most read in the last 20 days:
- Fresh Mainstream Nonsense on Gold Demand
They Will Never Get It... We and many others have made a valiant effort over the years to explain what actually moves the gold market (as examples see e.g. our article “Misconceptions About Gold”, or Robert Blumen's excellent essay “Misunderstanding Gold Demand”). Sometimes it is a bit frustrating when we realize it has probably all been for naught. Gold wants to know what it has done now... Photo credit: Ajay Verma / Reuters This was brought home to...
- Switzerland About to Vote on “Free Lunch” for Everyone
Will the Swiss Guarantee CHF 75,000 for Every Family? In early June the Swiss will be called upon to make a historic decision. Switzerland is the first country worldwide to put the idea of an Unconditional Basic Income to a vote and the outcome of this referendum will set a strong precedent and establish a landmark in the evolution of this debate. The Swiss Basic Income Initiative in a demonstration in front of parliament. As we have previously reported (see “Swiss...
- Drowning the Fir
Presidential Duties Our editor recently stumbled upon an image in one of the more obscure corners of the intertubes which we felt we had to share with our readers. It provides us with a nice metaphor for the meaningfulness of government activity. First, here is a look at the picture – just quietly contemplate it for while and let it work its magic on you: Yes, these two gentlemen are actually watering a tree in the middle of a downpour... Photo via...
- Gold – The Commitments of Traders
Commercial and Non-Commercial Market Participants The commitments of traders in gold futures are beginning to look a bit concerning these days – we will explain further below why this is so. Some readers may well be wondering why an explanation is even needed. Isn't it obvious? Superficially, it sure looks that way. As the following chart of the net position of commercial hedgers illustrates, their position is currently at quite an extended...
- Heretical Thoughts and Doing the Unthinkable
Heresy! NORMANDY, France – The Dow rose 222 points on Tuesday – or just over 1%. But we agree with hedge-fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller: This is not a good time to be a U.S. stock market bull. Legendary former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller at the Ira Sohn conference – not an optimist at present, to put it mildly. Photo credit: David A. Grogan / CNBC Speaking at an investment conference in New York last week, George Soros’ former partner...
- Staying Home on Election Day
Pretenses and Conceits The markets are eerily quiet… like an angry man with something on his mind and a shotgun in his hand. We will leave them to brood… and return to the spectacle of the U.S. presidential primaries. On display are all the pretenses, conceits, and absurdities of modern government. And now, the race narrows to the two most widely distrusted and loathed candidates. US election circus: Deep State Rep vs. Rage Channeller The first, a loose...
- How the Deep State’s Cronies Steal From You
Expanding in Ireland DUNMORE EAST, Ireland – We came down the coast from Dublin to check on our new office building. For this visit, we wanted to stay somewhere different than we normally do. So we chose a small hotel on the coast, called the Strand Inn. Irish landscape with alien landing pads. Even the guys from Rigel II have heard about Ireland's corporate tax rate. Photo credit: Tourism Ireland It is an excellent place for seafood and soda bread on a...
- The Japanese Popsicle Affair
Policy-Induced Contrition in Japan As we keep saying, there really is no point in trying to make people richer by making them poorer – which is what Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda have been trying to do for the past several years. Not surprisingly, they have so to speak only succeeded in achieving the second part of the equation: they have certainly managed to impoverish their fellow Japanese citizens. Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda, professional yen assassins Photo credit:...
- How Elon Musk Helps Fools to Part Ways with Their Money
Tesla Goes Fishing Tesla Motors is up to something remarkable. But what it is, exactly, is unclear. According to the Tesla Motors website, the company’s mission is: to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport. Tesla Model 3: the company’s first “mass market” entry so to speak, which is supposed to help the world to reach the nirvana of “sustainable” transport. On the side, it is helping a number of Wall Street firms to increase their...
- Kuroda-San in the Mouth of Madness
Deluded Central Planners Zerohedge recently reported on an interview given by Lithuanian ECB council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, which demonstrates how utterly deluded the central planners in the so-called “capitalist” economies of the West have become. His statements are nothing short of bizarre (“we are magic guys!”) – although he is of course correct when he states that a central bank can never “run out of ammunition”. BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda Photo credit:...
- Revolution at the Ranch
Alarming News BALTIMORE, Maryland – An alarming email came on Tuesday from our ranch in Argentina: “Bad things going on… We thought we had the originarios problem settled. Not at all. They just invaded the ranch.” Originarios on the march... Photo credit: cta.org.ar To bring new readers fully into the picture, Northwest Argentina, where we have our ranch, has a revolution going on. Some of the indigenous people – that is, people with Native...
- The Long-Buried Secret of Napoleon Bonaparte
Family Secrets DUBLIN – The smart money is getting out while the gettin’ is still good. That’s the message we get from reading the recent headlines. Here’s the Financial Times: Redemptions from stock funds have hit nearly $90 billion this year as portfolio managers and hedge funds struggle to navigate a market that no longer seems driven by radical central bank policy. S&P 500 Index: causing navigational problems - click to...