- Insanity, Oddities and Dark Clouds in Credit-Land
Bond markets are certainly displaying a lot of enthusiasm at the moment – and it doesn't matter which bonds one looks at, as the famous “hunt for yield” continues to obliterate interest returns across the board like a steamroller. Corporate and government debt have been soaring for years, but investor appetite for such debt has evidently grown even more.
The perfect investment for modern times: interest-free risk!
Illuustration by Howard...
- US Economy – Something is not Right
Another Strong Payrolls Report – is it Meaningful?
This morning the punters in the casino were cheered up by yet another strong payrolls report, the second in a row. Leaving aside the fact that it will be revised out of all recognition when all is said and done, does it actually mean the economy is strong?
Quo vadis, economy?
Image credit: Paul Raphaelson
As we usually point out at this juncture: apart from the problem that US labor force participation has...
- Investing in Gold in 2016: Global Paradigm Shifts in Politics and Markets
In the past few months, we have witnessed a series of defining events in modern political history, with Britain’s vote to exit the EU, (several) terror attacks in France and Germany, as well as the recent attempted military coup in Europe’s backyard, Turkey.
Global stability continues to be undermined
Uncertainty over Europe’s political stability and the future of the EU keeps growing. These worries are quite valid, as geopolitical...
- Trump's Tax Plan, Clinton Corruption and Mainstream Media Propaganda
Fake Money, Fake Capital
OUZILLY, France – Little change in the markets on Monday. We are in the middle of vacation season. Who wants to think too much about the stock market? Not us! Yesterday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump promised to reform the U.S. tax system.
This should actually even appeal to supporters of Bernie Sanders: the lowest income groups will be completely exempt from income and capital gains taxes under Trump's plan. We expect to hear...
- The Great Stock Market Swindle
Short Circuited Feedback Loops
Finding and filling gaps in the market is one avenue for entrepreneurial success. Obviously, the first to tap into an unmet consumer demand can unlock massive profits. But unless there’s some comparative advantage, competition will quickly commoditize the market and profit margins will decline to just above breakeven.
Example of a “commoditized” market – hard-drive storage costs per GB. This is actually the essence of economic...
- Bank of England QE and the Imaginary “Brexit Shock”
Mark Carney, Wrecking Ball
For reasons we cannot even begin to fathom, Mark Carney is considered a “superstar” among central bankers. Presumably this was one of the reasons why the British government helped him to execute a well-timed exit from the Bank of Canada by hiring him to head the Bank of England (well-timed because he disappeared from Canada with its bubble economy seemingly still intact, leaving his successor to take the blame).
This is how Mark Carney is seen by...
- Why Americans Get Poorer
OUZILLY, France – Both our daughters have now arrived at our place in the French countryside. One brought a grandson, James, now 14 months old. He walks along unsteadily, big blue eyes studying everything around him.
Put to sleep by monetary lullaby! This is what children look like approximately five minutes into a rant on the Fed's policy mistakes. It never fails!
Photo credit: Jack Weid
He adjusted quickly to the change in time zones. And...
- An Old Friend Returns
A Rare Apparition
An old friend suddenly showed up out of the blue yesterday and I’m not talking about a contributor who had washed out and, after years of ‘working for the man’, decided to return for another whack at beating the market. Instead I am delighted to report that I am looking at a bona fide confirmed VIX sell signal which we haven’t seen for ages here.
Hello, old friend. Professor X and Magneto staring each other down in the plastic...
- The Fabian Society and the Gradual Rise of Statist Socialism
The “Third Way”
“Stealth, intrigue, subversion, and the deception of never calling socialism by its right name” – George Bernard Shaw
An emblem of the Fabian Society: a wolf in sheep's clothing
The Brexit referendum has revealed the existence of a deep polarization in British politics. Apart from the public faces of the opposing campaigns, there were however also undisclosed parties with a vested interest which few people have heard about.
- Retail Snails
Second Half Recovery Dented by “Resurgent Consumer”
We normally don't comment in real time on individual economic data releases. Generally we believe it makes more sense to occasionally look at a bigger picture overview, once at least some of the inevitable revisions have been made. The update we posted last week (“US Economy, Something is Not Right”) is an example.
Eager consumers storming a store
Photo credit: Daniel Acker / Bloomberg
We'll make an...
- The Fed’s “Waterloo” Moment
Corrupt and Unsustainable
James has been a big help. Trying to get him to sleep at night, we have been telling him fantastic and unbelievable bedtime stories – full of grotesque monsters... evil maniacs... and events that couldn’t possibly be true (catch up here and here).
He turned his head until his gaze came to rest on the barred windows of the main building. Finally, he spoke; as far as I was aware these were the first words he had uttered in more than five years....
- Good Money and Bad Money
Confidence Gets a Boost
OUZILLY, France – Last week’s U.S. jobs report came in better than expected. Stocks rose to new records. As we laid out recently, a better jobs picture should lead the Fed to raise rates. This should cause canny investors to dump stocks.
Canny investors at work (an old, but good one...)
Cartoon via Pension Pulse
But the stock market paid no attention. It follows logic of its own. Headlines told us that last Friday’s report “boosted...