Transfer of NPLs to Sareb Lowers NPLs in Spain's Banking System
If one were to merely cursorily glance at the headlines, one would be under the impression that NPLs in Spain have finally begin to decline. For instance, the WSJ entitled its article on the topic “Spain's Bad Loans Drop Sharply”. Only if one bothers to actually look at the article itself does it become clear that NPLs have not really dropped, but have merely been shifted to the 'bad bank' set up by Spain's government.
“The Bank of Spain said Monday that bad debts held by the country's banks dropped sharply in December from November because of the transfer of lower-quality credit portfolios to the so-called bad bank that started operations that month.
Nonperforming loans fell by €24.1 billion ($32.20 billion) to €167.4 billion, or 10.4% of total outstanding loans, in December, preliminary data from the central bank showed. That compares with a bad-loan ratio of 11.4% in November, the highest ever recorded.
At the same time, total loans shrank to €1.604 trillion from €1.683 trillion, largely the result of loan reclassifications after the lower-quality loans were passed on to SAREB, as the bad bank is known, the Spanish central bank said in a statement.
Spanish banks, reeling from the crash of a decadelong housing boom, are expected to transfer around €60 billion worth of impaired assets to the bad bank. This was created as part of a deal to receive €39 billion worth of European Union aid for the country's troubled banking sector.
Until November, bad loans had risen for 20 months in a row as a result of soaring defaults by home builders and fast-rising unemployment. Eight banks are due to receive €38.87 billion through a European Union credit line that was extended to the Spanish government last year to bail out the country's troubled banks.”
However, does this mean that there has actually been a genuine reduction in bad loans? After all, the figure cited above – namely that bad loans fell by € 24.1 billion – doesn't tell us how many loans were actually transferred. In order to find this out, one has to consult a recent Exane research report on Spain's banks. It contains the following table and chart. Note that the table sums up the bad loans transferred by the end of 2012.
NPLs transferred by Spain's banks to Sareb in late 2012.
As the chart of the NPL percentage indicates, this should lead to an equivalent drop in the percentage, ceteris paribus:
Spain's NPL ratio, before and after the transfer of bad loan assets to Sareb – click for better resolution.
If we interpret all the above data points correctly, the only conclusion one can come to is that bad loans in the Spanish banking system have not declined, but have actually increased further – namely by about €12.5 billion.
€36.695 billion in loans were transferred, but the overall decline in bad loans amounted only to € 24.1 billion. It follows logically that the difference between these two numbers represents the actual increase in bad loans in the system.
Of course one may well regard the assets now held by Sareb as being 'outside' of the system. However, the point remains that these are bad loans, regardless of who holds them. Thus the increase in NPLs in Spain apparently continues unabated.
Charts by: BNP-Paribas / Exane
You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.
Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke
3 Responses to “Bad Loans Drop in Spain – Seemingly”
Most read in the last 20 days:
- Gold Sector Update – What Stance is Appropriate?
The Technical Picture - a Comparison of Antecedents We wanted to post an update to our late December post on the gold sector for some time now (see “Gold – Ready to Spring Another Surprise?” for the details). Perhaps it was a good thing that some time has passed, as the current juncture seems particularly interesting. We received quite a few mails from friends and readers recently, expressing concern about the inability of gold stocks to lead, or even confirm strength in gold of...
- Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q1 2017 and Some Additional Reflections
Looming Currency and Liquidity Problems The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Advisory Board was held on January 11, approximately one month ago. A download link to a PDF document containing the full transcript including charts an be found at the end of this post. As always, a broad range of topics was discussed; although some time has passed since the meeting, all these issues remain relevant. Our comments below are taking developments that have taken place since then into...
- Trump and the Draining of the Swamp
Swamp Critters BALTIMORE – The Dow is back above the 20,000-point mark. Federal debt, as officially tallied, is up to nearly $20 trillion. The two go together, egging each other on. The Dow is up 20 times since 1980. So is the U.S. national debt. Debt feeds the stock market and the swamp. What’s not up so much is real output, as measured by GDP. It’s up only 6.4 times over the same period. Debt and asset prices have been rising three times as fast as GDP for 36 years! Best...
- Gold and Silver Divergence – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Gold and Silver Divergence – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Last week, the prices of the metals went up, with the gold price rising every day and the silver price stalling out after rising 42 cents on Tuesday. The gold-silver ratio went up a bit this week, an unusual occurrence when prices are rising. Everyone knows that the price of silver is supposed to outperform — the way Pavlov’s Dogs know that food comes after the bell. Speculators usually make it...
- When Trumponomics Meets Abenomics
Thirty Year Retread What will President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talk about when they meet later today? Will they gab about what fishing holes the big belly bass are biting at? Will they share insider secrets on what watering holes are serving up the stiffest drinks? [ed. note: when we edited this article for Acting Man, the meeting was already underway] Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe, a dyed-in-the-wool Keynesian and militarist, meets America's...
- The Great Wailing
Regret and Suffering BALTIMORE – Victoribus spolia... So far, the most satisfying thing about the Trump win has been the howls and whines coming from the establishment. Each appointment – some good, some bad from our perspective – has brought forth such heavy lamentations. Oh no! Alaric the Visigoth is here! Hide the women and children! And don't forget the vestal virgins, if you can find any... You’d think Washington had been invaded by Goths, now...
- Receive a One Percent Gift When Buying or Selling a Home
How to Save Money When Buying or Make More When Selling a Home In your professional capacity and perhaps also in your private life, you may be closely involved with financial and commodity markets. Trading in stocks, bonds or futures is part of your daily routine. Occasionally you probably have to deal with real estate as well though – if you e.g. want to purchase an apartment or a house, or if own a home you wish to sell. The people who took this photograph probably want to...
- Unleashing Wall Street
To Unleash or Not to Unleash, That is the Question... LOVINGSTON, VIRGINIA – Corporate earnings have been going down for nearly three years. They are now about 10% below the level set in the late summer of 2014. Why should stocks be so expensive? Example of something that one should better not unleash. The probability that a win-lose proposition will develop upon meeting it seems high. It wins, because it gets to eat... Image credit: Urs Hagen Oh,...
- Silver Futures Market Assistance – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Silver Is Pushed Up Again This week, the prices of the metals moved up on Monday. Then the gold price went sideways for the rest of the week, but the silver price jumped on Friday. Taking off for real or not? Photo credit: NASA Is this the rocket ship to $50? Will Trump’s stimulus plan push up the price of silver? Or just push silver speculators to push up the price, at their own expense, again? This will again be a brief Report this week, as we are busy...
- Boondoggles for the Swamp Critters
Monster or Mozart? BALTIMORE – Investors seem to be holding their breath, like a man hiding a cigarette from his wife. It’s just a feeling, and it’s not the first time we’ve had it... but it feels as though it wouldn’t take much to send them all running. Actually, they're not going anywhere yet... but there is a lot of overconfidence by those who were very worried when prices were a lot better - click to enlarge. Meanwhile... we’re coming to a deep...
- The Art and Pseudoscience of Monetary Policy
Definitely Maybe Everyone’s got a plan for sale these days. In fact, there are so many plans out there we cannot keep up with them all. Eat celery sticks and lose weight. Think and grow rich. Stocks for the long run. Naturally, plans like these run a dime a dozen. All social engineers who get to impose their harebrained schemes on the rest of the world through the coercive powers of the State, as well as all armchair planners regaling us with their allegedly...
- California, Nestle and Decentralization
Goodbye, Socialist Paradise Nestle USA has announced that it will move its headquarters from Glendale, California, to Rosslyn, Virginia, taking with it about 1200 jobs. The once Golden State has lost some 1690 businesses since 2008 and a net outflow of a million of mostly middle-class people from the state from 2004 to 2013 due to its onerous tax rates, the oppressive regulatory burden, and the genuine kookiness which pervades among its ruling elites.* There has been a...