It's Failing All Over the Show – So Let's Do More of It!

The insanity that has gripped policymakers all over the world really is a sight to see. There was a time when central bankers were extremely careful not to do anything that might endanger the currency's value too much – in other words, they were intent on boiling the frog slowly. And why wouldn't they? After all, the amount by which the citizenry is  plucked via depreciation of the currency every year is compounding, so that the men behind the curtain extract more than enough over time. That they thereby retard economic progress by decades over time as well is not something anyone would notice after all, since we cannot engage in a controlled experiment that proves it to all and sundry beyond doubt. We only know that it is so if we employ sound economic theory. Since sound economic theory is by its nature not statist, it is not employed by the mainstream, and so most citizens are successfully shielded from the truth.

 

The latest example for the growing chutzpa of these snake-oil sellers is provided by Lord Adair Turner in the UK. To give you a little bit of background: the UK is about to fall into its third recession in a row (a 'triple dip', something that has never before happened) not in spite, but because the Bank of England has monetized a cool quarter of all outstanding gilts, which has allowed the zombie TBTF banks to remain on artificial life support.

However, that is not Turner's conclusion. The policy is evidently failing, so he naturally concludes that there should not only be more of it, but it should become more brazen by veering off into the 'Weimaresque'. After all, we will be able to stop in time, right? We just need a 'little bit of it'. Although Turner for some reason also thinks it is 'not appropriate for the UK' (why not? The UK for some reason 'does not respond to demand and price signals', which would really be a first in economic history…where do they find these people?), he thinks everybody else should do it. According to the FT, under the heading “Print Money to Fund Spending”:


“Lord Turner, the departing chairman of the Financial Services Authority has defended financing government spending by printing money arguing that, within limits, it “absolutely, definitively [does] not” lead to inflation.

Speaking before a farewell speech in London on Wednesday, Lord Turner, who applied unsuccessfully to be the next Bank of England governor, called for “intellectual clarity” in economic policy, including breaking a taboo that permanently printing money to pay for government services is always bad.

“I accept entirely that this is a very dangerous thing to let out of the bag, that this is a medicine in small quantities but a poison in large quantities but that there exist some circumstances, in which it is appropriate to take that risk,” he told the Financial Times.

The tool should have been used in 1930s Germany and 1990s Japan, he said. It should be considered across the world, he added, at a time when banks, companies and households are trying to pay down debts and seeking to return to growth by borrowing more is seen as perverse.

In a direct challenge to the German authorities who shudder at the memory of the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic, Lord Turner suggested that the absence of monetary financing in the early 1930s, which led to depression, falling prices and the rise of the Third Reich, had been a greater disaster.

“Is [monetary financing] desperately dangerous because every pound of money financed turns into inflation? Absolutely definitively not. There is no coherent rigorous bit of economics that takes you in that direction,” he said.

He did add, however, that the country where monetary financing was least likely to be needed was the UK. There he accepts that more stimulus might lead to higher inflation as the underlying health of the economy is weak and could not “respond to demand and price signals”.

 

(emphasis added)

Let's count the ways in which this is misguided nonsense. It begins with the title already. 'Money' cannot 'fund' anything. What is required for funding economic activities are real savings and real capital. You could drop $10 trillion in the middle of the Sahel zone and still wouldn't be able to 'fund' anything. Money is merely a medium of exchange and as such indispensable to economic calculation, but it is not a means of 'funding'.

Now to the assertion that “printing money does not lead to inflation”, which is at the heart of Turner's argument. First of all, it may take many years, even decades, before a broad-based inflationary effect becomes noticeable. For example, the US and others 'printed money' and engaged in deficit spending throughout the 1950s and 1960s.  There also seemed to be no problem, until the problem suddenly became noticeable in the 1970s.

Moreover, 'inflation' in the sense of an increase in CPI is in any case a problem of secondary importance. Money printing most definitely distorts prices all across the economy – it is relative prices that change, as money is not neutral. This hampers rational economic calculation and therefore leads to capital malinvestment. Scarce capital is therefore wasted, and although there may be a 'feel good phase' (the boom), all the accounting profits generated in the boom will eventually disappear again in a bust. They are an inflationary illusion.

The appeal to the 1930s and Hitler is quite amusing in a way, as Hitler himself was a major inflationist. We already mentioned it:  A war on the scale of WW2 would not have been possible without massive inflation and employment of precisely the methods his Lordship recommends. Moreover, the reason for Hitler's rise is ultimately to be sought in the successive abandonment of the gold standard in order to finance WW1. This made it impossible to return to sound money without upheaval, and the 1920's boom ensued when the US attempted to help the misguided policymakers of the UK by leaving interest rates too low, so they could to push through their return to gold at par. This brought on the credit and asset boom of the 1920s, which ultimately led to the Great Depression.

To blame the rise of Hitler on the “refusal to inflate” is especially piquant if one considers that Germany was in the throes of a hyperinflationary conflagration in the year when Hitler was first heard about (he attempted a coup in 1923). Lastly, the 'argument from history', a specialty of Marxists and German historicists, is inappropriate when discussing points of economic theory.

Finally Turner asserts that “we should take the risk” because allegedly, “Is [monetary financing] desperately dangerous because every pound of money financed turns into inflation? Absolutely definitively not. There is no coherent rigorous bit of economics that takes you in that direction,”

This is at best a half-truth. Since money is not neutral, an outbreak of consumer price inflation may or may not happen, that depends largely on many other factors influencing peoples' inflation expectations. However, as noted above, there is no way a sound economic theory can regard inflation of the money supply as 'harmless' or even 'necessary'. Turner is just another snake oil seller.

As an aside, the Knappists, i.e., the  'Modern Monetary Theory' Church, think highly of Turner since he came out with this crazy argument. Enough said. 

 


 

turner_1367473c

Another snake oil seller pops up: Adair Turner

(Photo via telegraph.co.uk)

 


 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

One Response to “Another Snake Oil Seller Pops Up”

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • How to Survive the Winter
      A Flawless Flock of Scoundrels One of the fringe benefits of living in a country that’s in dire need of a political, financial, and cultural reset, is the twisted amusement that comes with bearing witness to its unraveling.  Day by day we’re greeted with escalating madness.  Indeed, the great fiasco must be taken lightly, so as not to be demoralized by its enormity.   Symphony grotesque in Washington [PT]   Of particular note is the present cast of characters. ...
  • Credit Spreads: The Coming Resurrection of Polly
      Suspicion isn't Merely Asleep – It is in a Coma (or Dead) There is an old Monty Python skit about a parrot whose lack of movement and refusal to respond to prodding leads to an intense debate over what state it is in. Is it just sleeping, as the proprietor of the shop that sold it insists? A very tired parrot taking a really deep rest? Or is it actually dead, as the customer who bought it asserts, offering the fact that it was nailed to its perch as prima facie evidence that what...
  • The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday
      Known and Unknown Anomalies Readers are undoubtedly aware of one or another stock market anomaly, such as e.g. the frequently observed weakness in stock markets in the summer months, which the well-known saying “sell in May and go away” refers to. Apart from such widely known anomalies, there are many others though, which most investors have never heard of. These anomalies can be particularly interesting and profitable for investors – and there are several in the precious metals...
  • A Falling Rate of Discount and the Consumption of Capital
      Net Present Value Warren Buffet famously proposed the analogy of a machine that produces one dollar per year in perpetuity. He asks how much would you pay for this machine? Clearly it is worth something more than $1.00. And it’s equally clear that it’s not worth $1,000. The value is somewhere in between. But where?   We are not sure why Warren Buffett invoked a money printing machine of all things – another interesting way of looking at the concept is by e.g....
  • Business Cycles and Inflation – Part I
      Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q4 2017 -  Special Guest Ben Hunt, Author and Editor of Epsilon Theory The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund's Advisory Board took place on October 10 and we had the great pleasure to be joined by special guest Ben Hunt this time, who is probably known to many of our readers as the main author and editor of Epsilon Theory. He is also chief risk officer at investment management firm Salient Partners. As always, a transcript of the discussion is...
  • What President Trump and the West Can Learn from China
      Expensive Politics Instead of a demonstration of its overwhelming military might intended to intimidate tiny North Korea and pressure China to lean on its defiant communist neighbor, President Trump and the West should try to learn a few things from China.   President Trump meets President Xi. The POTUS reportedly had a very good time in China. [PT] Photo credit: AP   The President’s trip to the Far East came on the heels of the completion of China’s...
  • Is Fed Chair Nominee Jay Powell, Count Dracula?
      A Date with Dracula The gray hue of dawn quickly slipped to a bright clear sky as we set out last Saturday morning.  The season’s autumn tinge abounded around us as the distant mountain peaks, and their mighty rifts, grew closer.  The nighttime chill stubbornly lingered in the crisp air.   “Who lives in yonder castle?” Harker asked. “Pardon, Sire?” Up front in the driver's seat it was evidently hard to understand what was said over the racket made by the team of...
  • Business Cycles and Inflation, Part II
      Early Warning Signals in a Fragile System [ed note: here is Part 1; if you have missed it, best go there and start reading from the beginning] We recently received the following charts via email with a query whether they should worry stock market investors. They show two short term interest rates, namely the 2-year t-note yield and 3 month t-bill discount rate. Evidently the moves in short term rates over the past ~18 - 24 months were quite large, even if their absolute levels remain...
  • A Different Powelling - Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      New Chief Monetary Bureaucrat Goes from Good to Bad for Silver The prices of the metals ended all but unchanged last week, though they hit spike highs on Thursday. Particularly silver his $17.24 before falling back 43 cents, to close at $16.82.   Never drop silver carelessly, since it might land on your toes. If you are at loggerheads with gravity for some reason, only try to handle smaller-sized bars than the ones depicted above. The snapshot to the right shows the governor...
  • Heat Death of the Economic Universe
      Big Crunch or Big Chill Physicists say that the universe is expanding. However, they hotly debate (OK, pun intended as a foreshadowing device) if the rate of expansion is sufficient to overcome gravity—called escape velocity. It may seem like an arcane topic, but the consequences are dire either way.   OT – a little cosmology excursion from your editor: Observations so far suggest that the expansion of the universe is indeed accelerating – the “big crunch”, in...
  • Claudio Grass Interviews Mark Thornton
      Introduction Mark Thornton of the Mises Institute and our good friend Claudio Grass recently discussed a number of key issues, sharing their perspectives on important economic and geopolitical developments that are currently on the minds of many US and European citizens. A video of the interview can be found at the end of this post. Claudio provided us with a written summary of the interview which we present below – we have added a few remarks in brackets (we strongly recommend...
  • Inflation and Gold - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Reasons to Buy Gold The price of gold went up $19, and the price of silver 42 cents. The price action occurred on Monday, Wednesday and Friday though so far, only the first two price jumps reversed. We promise to take a look at the intraday action on Friday.   File under “reasons to buy gold”: A famous photograph by Henri Cartier-Bresson of a rather unruly queue in front of a bank in Shanghai in 1949 in the final days of Kuomintang rule. When it dawned on people that the...

Support Acting Man

Top10BestPro
j9TJzzN

Austrian Theory and Investment

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com