The New Fallback Position
A friend pointed us to a recent article in the New York Times, a paper that has incidentally just dismantled its 'environment desk', to the chagrin of would-be planet-savers everywhere, one imagines. The article is entitled “Heat, Flood or Icy Cold, Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide” and is decorated with a photograph of snow-covered palm trees in Jerusalem (now you know why they don't call it 'global warming' anymore). Anyway, the article is a long litany of weather-related woes, which as it were we have probably heard in one form or another for as long as we can remember (not a year passes without someone or other assuring us that the 'weather has never been as extreme as it is now', and usually they can also cite a statistic or two to 'prove' their case. It seems that extreme weather is rather common, actually).
Anyway there is one sentence in the article that we found really interesting. After we are assured with the aid of a long list of examples that there is indeed an unusual confluence of weather-related extremes clustered in the here and now, we learn from a Mr. Omar Baddour in Geneva (where apparently one of the great many cushy taxpayer-financed climate bureaucracies is located, in this case the 'World Meteorological Organization'):
“Such events are increasing in intensity as well as frequency, Mr. Baddour said, a sign that climate change is not just about rising temperatures, but also about intense, unpleasant, anomalous weather of all kinds.”
Say what? It is already suspicious enough that 'global warming' has over the years inconspicuously morphed into 'climate change' (a very convenient term, since the climate is always changing), but that seems to be in the process of acquiring an entirely new meaning now, namely 'inclement weather'.
This appears to be the newest fallback position of the AGW theorists – 'unpleasant weather' seems to be the new hallmark of the oncoming catastrophe that can allegedly only be prevented by throwing untold billions in the general direction of people like Mr. Baddour (though no longer in the direction of the NYT's 'environment desk', alas), while severely retarding economic growth and increasing government control over our lives by an order of magnitude (think incandescent light bulb; sorry, we had to mention it).
Egged on by this curious discovery, we looked around to see if there were any recent climate science-related developments that would account for this sudden adoption of unpleasant weather as the latest sign of surely impending imminent doom by the warming cult. Whether there is really a connection to what we found we cannot say, but for those who missed it, it is surely quite interesting nonetheless.
Oh God, not the environment desk of the New York Times….we're done for!
(Photo via twicsy.com)
Apparently the Met Office in London has decided to begin the year by coming clean about what has happened to the warming cycle over the past 15 years. This is actually not news, what is news is who is now admitting it. Actually, it placed the news on its home page on 24 December of 2012, apparently so well hidden that it took the UK press until January 8 to find out about it!
And this is the news:
“The Met Office has admitted that global warming has stalled. Officials say that by 2017, temperatures will not have risen significantly for nearly 20 years. They concede that previous forecasts were inaccurate – and have come under fire for attempting to ‘bury bad news’ by publishing the revised data on Christmas Eve.
Now a press release, published yesterday, has confirmed that over the next five years temperatures will be 0.43 degrees above the 1971-2000 average, instead of the previously forecast 0.54 degrees – a 20 per cent reduction. This rise would be only slightly higher than the 0.4-degree rise recorded in 1998, an increase which is itself attributed by forecasters to an exceptional weather phenomenon.
With all but 0.03 degrees of the increase having occurred by 1998, the revision means that no further significant increases to the planet’s temperature are expected over the next few years.
Dr David Whitehouse, science adviser to the Global Warming Policy Foundation, said: ‘That the global temperature standstill could continue to at least 2017 would mean a 20-year period of no statistically significant change in global temperatures. ‘Such a period of no increase will pose fundamental problems for climate models. If the latest Met Office prediction is correct, then it will prove to be a lesson in humility.’
Dr. Whitehouse is to be commended for his assessment – this would indeed call for a bit of humility, considering that these people have been keeping the world in a constant state of alarm over the entire period of zero warming. However, a few of his colleagues may be plagued by visions of evaporating grants:
“However, Dr Richard Allan of the University of Reading said: ‘Global warming is not “at a standstill” but does seem to have slowed down since 2000, in comparison to the rapid warming of the world since the 1970s. ‘In fact, consistent with rising greenhouse gases, heat is continuing to build up beneath the ocean surface.’
Evidently, Dr. Whitehouse has neglected to extend his temperature feelers into the Atlantic ocean lately. Otherwise he'd know about this humility-precluding sub-surface condition. Another presumably tenured bien pensant weighs in as follows:
“He was backed by Bob Ward of the London School of Economics, who said it would be wrong to interpret that warming had stopped. However, he also condemned the Met Office for releasing data without an explanation of its full meaning.
‘It’s true to say this isn’t the Met Office’s finest hour,’ he said. ‘The sceptics have simply exploited that fact. I think on this particular occasion the Met Office has fallen short of the standards one would expect of them.’
How can they go ahead and just blurt out the truth! Not their finest hour!
So there has been zero temperature increase since 1998, they finally admitted it, and not only that, we are likely to look forward to another five years of 'standstill' at a minimum. First they fail to hide the data well enough (it was found by the press after two weeks…), then it turns out they published it without explaining why it really doesn't mean what it evidently means! The horror!
Who knows what will happen after the five more years of 'standstill'. Perhaps a new cooling cycle will begin? Actually, looking at the chart below, which shows the difference between the forecast of the alarmist 'climate models' and reality, the only question we have is this: why is this not a page one story everywhere? Seems like big news, doesn't it?
Chart made from data published by the Met Office 'on the quiet' at Christmas. The 'old forecast' based on climate models versus the reality and the new forecast.
Admittedly, not even a 20 year period of zero warming 'proves' anything one way or the other. Climate change happens on much vaster time scales – and it has been happening for billions of years, with or without humans. However, that is not what the alarmists said, is it? Note that not a single one of the dire predictions made since 1980 has so far come true (still waiting for those climate refugees! Micronesia still not under water, what's up with that?). But now we have inclement weather – what more proof do you need? Unless we stop all economic growth immediately, we will all die!
Kidding aside, so much for the 'consensus' and its predictions. Appeals to the so-called scientific consensus are in any case counterproductive. Science has historically progressed through challenges to the prevailing consensus, not through blind acceptance of same. Ultimately, no scientific hypothesis is entirely safe, although some are obviously more firmly established than others (we wouldn't rate AGW as one of the very firmly established ones). Moreover, there was a 'consensus' in the mid 1970's, after a cooling cycle had produced slightly declining temperatures for about four decades, that we would all freeze to death if we didn't immediately cover the Arctic and Antarctic in black soot so they would no longer reflect sunlight.
As an aside, to have doubts about AGW theory, especially in view of the growing body of countervailing evidence, does not automatically indicate that one believes that dinosaurs walked the earth 6,000 years ago, nor does it necessarily mean that one has an armory brimming with assault weapons. All it means is that one doesn't believe the 'debate is over'. It isn't.
We won't dwell on the near-record cold temperatures that have just been recorded in California, but we will say this:
“Ceterum censeo, bring back the incandescent light bulb to the deprived citizens of the EU”
Charts by: Die Presse
You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.
Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke
8 Responses to “Global Warming Becomes ‘Inclement Weather’”
Most read in the last 20 days:
- US Financial Markets – Alarm Bells are Ringing
A Shift in Expectations When discussing the outlook for so-called “risk assets”, i.e., mainly stocks and corporate bonds (particularly low-grade bonds) and their counterparts on the “safe haven” end of the spectrum (such as gold and government bonds with strong ratings), one has to consider different time frames and the indicators applicable to these time frames. Since Donald Trump's election victory, there have been sizable moves in stocks, gold and treasury bonds, as the election...
- Modi’s Great Leap Forward
India’s Currency Ban – Part VIII India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, Part-V, Part-VI and Part-VII, which provide updates on the demonetization saga and how Modi is acting as a catalyst to hasten the rapid degradation of India and what remains of its institutions. India’s Pride and Joy Indians are...
- Global Recession and Other Visions for 2017
Conjuring Up Visions Today’s a day for considering new hopes, new dreams, and new hallucinations. The New Year is here, after all. Now is the time to turn over a new leaf and start afresh. Naturally, 2017 will be the year you get exactly what’s coming to you. Both good and bad. But what else will happen? Image of a recently discarded vision... Image by Michael Del Mundo Here we begin by closing our eyes and slowing our breath. We let our mind...
- The Great El Monte Public Pension Swindle
Nowhere City California There are places in Southern California where, although the sun always shines, they haven’t seen a ray of light for over 50-years. There’s a no man’s land of urban blight along Interstate 10, from East Los Angeles through the San Gabriel Valley, where cities you’ve never heard of and would never go to, are jumbled together like shipping containers on Terminal Island. El Monte, California, is one of those places. Advice dispensed on Interstate...
- A Trade Deal Trump Cannot Improve
Worst in Class BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things. Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said: "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was your age, I always did it for...
- Pope Francis Now International Monetary Guru
Neo-Marxist Pope Francis Argues for Global Central Bank As the new year dawns, it seems the current occupant of St. Peter’s Chair will take on a new function which is outside the purview of the office that the Divine Founder of his institution had clearly mandated. Neo-Papist transmogrification. We highly recommend the economic thought of one of Francis' storied predecessors, John Paul II, which we have written about on previous occasions. In “A Tale of Two Popes” and...
- Where’s the Outrage?
Blind to Crony Socialism Whenever a failed CEO is fired with a cushy payoff, the outrage is swift and voluminous. The liberal press usually misrepresents this as a hypocritical “jobs for the boys” program within the capitalist class. In reality, the payoffs are almost always contractual obligations, often for deferred compensation, that the companies vigorously try to avoid. Believe me. I’ve been on both sides of this kind of dispute (except, of course, for the “failed”...
- Trump’s Trade Catastrophe?
“Trade Cheaters” It is worse than “voodoo economics,” says former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. It is the “economic equivalent of creationism.” Wait a minute - Larry Summers is wrong about almost everything. Could he be right about this? Larry Summers, the man who is usually wrong about almost everything. As we have always argued, the economy is much safer when he sleeps, so his tendency to fall asleep on all sorts of occasions should definitely be welcomed....
- Trump’s Plan to Close the Trade Deficit with China
Rags to Riches Jack Ma is an amiable fellow. Back in 1994, while visiting the United States he decided to give that newfangled internet thing a whirl. At a moment of peak inspiration, he executed his first search engine request by typing in the word beer. Jack Ma, founder and CEO of Alibaba, China's largest e-commerce firm. Once he was a school teacher, but it turned out that he had enormous entrepreneurial talent and that the world of wheelers, dealers, movers and...
- Side Notes, January 14 - Red Flags Over Goldman Sachs
Red Flags Over Goldman Sachs Just to prove that I am an even-handed insulter, here is a rant about my former employer, Goldman Sachs. The scandal at 1MDB, the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund from which it appears that billions were stolen by politicians all the way up to the Prime Minister, continues to unfold. The main players in the 1MDB scandal. Irony alert: apparently money siphoned off from 1MDB was used to inter alia finance Martin Scorcese's movie “The Wolf of...
- Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle
A Difference of Opinions In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. In his The Case for 100 Percent Gold Dollar Rothbard wrote: I therefore advocate as the soundest monetary system and the only one fully compatible with the free market and with the absence of force or fraud...
- Silver’s Got Fundamentals - Precious Metals Supply-Demand Report
Supply-Demand Fundamentals Improve Noticeably Last week was another short week, due to the New Year holiday. We look forward to getting back to our regularly scheduled market action. Photo via thedailycoin.org The prices of both metals moved up again this week. Something very noticeable is occurring in the supply and demand fundamentals. We will give an update on that, but first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices. Prices of gold and silver...