Hope Springs Eternal
Below is our customary update of credit market charts, including the usual suspects: CDS on various sovereign debtors and banks, bond yields, euro basis swaps and a few other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different price scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Where necessary we have provided a legend for the color coding below the charts. Prices are as of Wednesday's close in case of CDS, Thursday's close in case of bond yields and basis swaps.
ack in recent days, mainly based on hopes that the G-20 meeting would result in some concrete actions in the form of 'quick fixes'. Such hopes are bound to be disappointed, but presumably the upcoming euro-group summit at the end of June will produce something.
It is noteworthy that in spite of the 'desired' election result having been achieved in Greece and a government led by Antonis Samaras having been sworn in in the meantime, CDS on Greek debt continue to trade at 11,453 basis points – indicating an extremely high probability of another default.
Other countries lately in the markets cross-hairs are Morocco and Slovenia.
5 year CDS on Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain - click chart for better resolution.
5 year CDS on France, Belgium, Ireland and Japan - click chart for better resolution.
5 year CDS on Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary and Austria - click chart for better resolution.
5 year CDS on Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia – Slovenia is getting into the market's cross-hairs now it seems - click chart for better resolution.
5 year CDS on Romania, Poland, the Ukraine and Estonia - click chart for better resolution.
5 year CDS on Germany (white) , the US (orange) and the Markit SovX index of CDS on 19 Western European sovereigns (yellow) - click chart for better resolution.
5 year CDS on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Turkey – CDS on Morocco continue to shoot up - click chart for better resolution.
Three month, one year, three year and five year euro basis swaps – still bouncing - click chart for better resolution.
10 year government bond yields of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain – Spanish and Italian yields have pulled back considerably yesterday and today. Greek yields are increasing once again - click chart for better resolution.
Austria's 10 year yield (green), UK gilts yield (yellow), Ireland's 9 year yield (white) – and the mystery of the Greek two year note quote has been solved – what you see here is its price, not its yield (orange line). The yield was at 225% today, down from 247% yesterday - click chart for better resolution.
Nomura's leading indicator for China (white line) versus copper (green), gold (orange) and the Hang Seng index (purple) - click chart for better resolution.
5 year CDS on Australia's 'Big Four' banks -still in 'risk on' mode, but probably not for much longer – click chart for better resolution.
Charts by: Bloomberg
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