What, the Markets Need to be 'Calmed' Again Already?  CDS on Spain Streak Toward All Time High

As Reuters reports, just ahead of an important Italian debt auction, an ECB official was wheeled out to 'calm the markets' by reminding everyone that the ECB's hand remains close to the spigot. Apparently the SMP ('securities markets program') is about to be reactivated.

 

„Giving some respite to riskier assets, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said the scale of market pressure on Spain is not justified and the ECB still has its bond-buying program as an option.

"A suggestion by an ECB board member that they could reactivate the SMP (Securities Markets Programme) facility helped to bring calm to a feverish Spanish bond market," said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe General.

"The relief could be felt more globally, but it was limited in scope indicating that we remain in a roller coaster and are not at the end of it yet."

Another test for the currency comes later in the day as Italian three-year borrowing costs are set to jump by a percentage point from a month ago at a bond auction, the latest sign investors' concerns about Spain are spreading to other euro zone countries hit by recession.“

 

(emphasis added)

However, the whole world already knows that the SMP bond market manipulation program is a failure. What we're saying here is not necessarily that 'it will be a failure in the long term', but 'it is a proven failure already in both the short and long term'. This at least should be the assessment of the ECB itself, if it were to honestly assess the program.

The program's expressly stated purpose is to manipulate the bond market yields of peripheral euro area sovereigns that are under pressure due to their debt having become a hot potato. So how should one define the success or lack thereof of the program? Doing so by the terms the program's authors have set for it,  one must conclude that the program might as well not exist. The bond markets that have come into the ambit of the SMP have collapsed in spite of it. Every time the ECB was in the markets as a heavy buyer,  it never managed to manipulate yields lower except perhaps for a single trading day here and there. The rest of the time, yields moved swiftly higher along their primary trend.

Since the SMP is sterilized through a special deposit facility that is rolled over once a week, there is no 'snowball effect' via the fractionally reserved banking system – the liquidity added to the system due to the ECB's bond buying is withdrawn immediately again. So the failure of this particular market manipulation device is probably preordained from the outset. The only effect as a friend pointed pout to us yesterday is that the banks and/or other bondholders are relieved from having to hold on to the hot potatoes, which now decorate the ECB's 'bad bank' balance sheet.

So we have no idea why any market participants in their right mind would actually be 'calmed' by Mr. Coeure's hints. In fact, those hints are if anything a good reason to panic, since they must be taken as confirmation that the central bank expects these markets to come under considerable additional pressure without fresh interventions.

If a big player in the markets officially promises to manipulate prices, what else could it mean? Evidently it is an admission that he believes these prices would deteriorate in the absence of such manipulation. This in turn also means that the continually repeated mantra that 'everything is fine with Spain' is complete nonsense. Absolutely nothing is 'fine' in Spain at present.

In fact, official assurances that 'things are just fine' were heard in every single instance just before the crisis toppled a new domino that ended up under the umbrella of the EU/IMF bailout vehicles. The more strenuous the assertions that the 'markets have it wrong', the more likely it is that the markets have it exactly right.

In fact, as you can see below, CDS on Spain's government debt are now close to tackling the all time high seen in November last year – and the move has recently accelerated.

 

Credit Market Charts

Below is the customary collection of charts: CDS on various sovereign debtors and banks, bond yields, euro basis swaps and a few other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Wednesday's close.

Obviously, Spain is currently the market's focus, but it certainly appears that contagion is  making a comeback.

All in all, the charts seem to be indicating that the 'crisis pause' induced by the LTRO exercise could be over. If so, then the ECB's last intervention is mostly remarkable for how quickly its effects are dissipating.

Euro basis swaps are now swiftly moving in the 'wrong' direction again as well, a sign that euro area banks are once again finding it more difficult to obtain dollar funding.

Related to this is the fact that our index of euro area bank CDS is also streaking higher at great speed of late.

Is it a decisive trend change? We can obviously not tell for sure just yet. It certainly is one in the case of Spain, but it may well be that the markets decide to calm down again of their own accord in the short term and await further fundamental developments.

The problem is, we don't see how said fundamentals are supposed to actually get better in the near term. That seems rather unlikely in fact – and should the recent short term trend change turn into a bigger move and other markets follow the deterioration in Spain's bond yields and CDS with more verve, then the euro area will be right back where it left off last November.

 


 

5 year CDS on Portugal, Italy, and Spain – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on France, Belgium, Ireland and Japan – with the exception of Ireland, multi-week highs all around – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary and Austria – by now we can probably call it a new uptrend – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia – this certainly looks like a trend change as well – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Romania, Poland,  the Ukraine and Estonia – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

CDS on Germany, the US and the Markit SovX index of CDS on 19 Western European sovereigns – a multi-week high in the SovX as well – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Turkey – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

Three month, one year, three year and five year euro basis swaps – it appears the recovery is over – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

Our proprietary unweighted index of 5 year CDS on eight major European banks (BBVA, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredito) – it's now at the highest level since January – it seems we were correct when we warned of a likely trend change following the re-test of lateral support – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on two big Austrian banks, Erstegroup and Raiffeisen – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

10 year government bond yields of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain – Spain's yields are now also back in territory last seen in November – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

Austria's 10 year government bond yield, Ireland's 9 year yield, UK gilts and the new Greek two year note – 'safe haven' gilts are back in demand; we wonder why anyone would think UK debt deserves to be regarded as 'safe'. It certainly takes a bit of imagination to come to such a conclusion, but apparently that is the market's verdict for now – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Australia's 'Big Four' banks – this also looks like a trend change by now – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

 

white line: real 12 month forward lending rates, red line are the nominal rates. Real rates have turned positive in China, which makes an easier monetary policy by the PBoC more likely – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

 

 

 

Charts by: Bloomberg


 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Japan: It isn’t What the Media Tell You
      Known for Being Terrible For the past few decades, Japan has been known for its stagnant economy, falling stock market, and most importantly its terrible demographics.     A chart of Japan's much-bewailed demographic horror-show. Most people consider a declining population to be a bad thing due to the implications for assorted state-run pay-as-you-go Ponzi schemes, primarily those related to retirement. It is hard to be sympathetic, since it would have been possible to...
  • An Update on Polly: She May be Coming Back to Life
      A Twitch of a Toe In our recent update on credit spreads we proposed to use the seemingly deceased  Monty Python parrot Polly as a stand-in for the suspicion of creditors in today's markets.  The question was whether Polly was indeed dead or merely in a deep coma. Depending on this, one should be able to gauge how powerful a miracle will be required to resurrect her.   Meet Polly. Is she alive?   In the first half of November there was actually a small sign that...
  • The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Being an Idiot
      Style Over Substance There are many things that could be said about the GOP tax bill.  But one thing is certain.  It has been a great show. Obviously, the time for real solutions to the debt problem that’s ailing the United States came and went many decades ago.  Instead of addressing the Country’s mounting insolvency, lawmakers chose expediency without exception.  They kicked the can from yesterday to today.   The empty chairs meeting – this is slightly...
  • The Zealous Pursuit of State-Sponsored Collapse
      When Bakers Go Fishing Government intervention into a nation’s economy is as foolish as attempting to control the sun’s rise and fall by law or force.  But that doesn’t mean governments don’t meddle each and every day with the best – and worst – of intentions.  The United States government is no exception.   From the “When the government helps the economy” collection: Breaking a few eggs while baking the bridge to nowhere omelet. [PT]   Over the...
  • Precious Metals Supply and Demand – Thanksgiving Week
      Grain of Salt Required The price of gold fell $7, and that of silver 24 cents. This was a holiday shortened week, due to Thanksgiving on Thursday in the US (and likely thin trading and poor liquidity on Wednesday and Friday). So take the numbers this week, including the basis, with a grain of that once-monetary commodity, salt. We will keep the market action commentary brief.   Relatively modern examples of salt money which was widely used in African countries until the...
  • What’s the Point? Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      Questions and Answers A reader emailed us, to ask a few pointed questions. Paraphrasing, they are:   Who cares if dollars are calculated in gold or gold is calculated in dollars? People care only if their purchasing power has grown. What is the basis good for? Is it just mathematical play for gold theorists? How does knowing the basis help your readers? Is it just a theoretical explanation of what has already happened? Prove that if someone has known the basis...
  • The Stock Market and the FOMC
      An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the trading days immediately ahead of FOMC announcements was quite remarkable in recent decades. We are referring to the Seaonax event study of the average (or seasonal) performance across a very large...
  • The Party of Spend More vs. the Party of Tax Less
      Eternal Spendathon The Senate just passed a 500-page tax reform bill. Assuming it lives up to its promise, it will cut taxes on corporations and individuals. Predictably, the Left hates it and the Right loves it. I am writing to argue why the Right should hate it (no, not for the reason the Left does, a desire to get the rich).   The Federal debtberg has grown beyond all measure since Nixon's gold default. So has the money supply and the amount of private debt. No-one...
  • The Santa Claus Rally is Especially Pronounced in the DAX
      The Gift that Keeps on Giving Every year a certain stock market phenomenon is said to recur, anticipated with excitement by investors: the Santa Claus rally. It is held that stock prices typically rise quite frequently and particularly strongly just before the turn of the year.   Unbeknown to many, Santa Claus paid a high price for enriching investors [PT]   I want to show you the Santa Claus rally in the German DAX Index as an example. Price moves are often...
  • Heaven Forbid Peace Should Break Out Between the US and North Korea!
      Rude Interruptions As long as the US Empire can be funded and maintained on the backs of its taxpaying public, the chance of a deescalation of tensions not only on the Korean peninsula, but throughout the world are practically nil.  And as long as the nation’s current interventionist ideology holds sway, it will only be through a financial meltdown that the role of the US as global policeman will come to a much-needed end.   Hamhung, North Korea, June 30, 1950; an example...
  • The Rug Yank Phase of Fed Policy
      Bogus Jobs Pay Big Bucks The political differences of today’s two leading parties are not over ultimate questions of principle.  Rather, they are over opposing answers to the question of how a goal can be achieved with the least sacrifice.  For lawmakers, the goal is to promise the populace something for nothing, while pretending to make good on it.   The short and sweet definition of democratic elections by eminent American wordsmith and political philosopher H.L. Mencken...

Support Acting Man

Top10BestPro
j9TJzzN

Austrian Theory and Investment

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com