Spanish House Prices Plunge Again

It is well known that Spain's economy is in a depression, and we do not use this term lightly. With the official unemployment rate at about 23% and youth unemployment close to 50% it is not an exaggeration to speak of a depression.  The probability of social upheaval erupting with greater frequency is extremely high. We already noted that the general strike recently called for by Spain's unions is only the fifth since the end of the Franco regime in 1975. It is a rare event in Spain and underscores the decline in the social mood and the growing desperation. Those who still have work want to protect their privileges and use the unemployed as their political weapon.

Meanwhile, Spain's banks are quietly sinking beneath the waves. They are  the quintessential zombies, especially the insolvent cajas, which are drowning in real estate related assets that see the value of their collateral inexorably spiraling down the drain (as an aside here: the Fed's recent 'stress test' of US banks possibly has not  taken sufficient account of this 'moving target problem'; as we have seen mentioned elsewhere, it also failed to consider the remote possibility that treasury bonds may decline more than it currently widely expected).

But let's return to Spain. The WSJ reports on the latest house price data, and keep in mind here that these are the 'official' and hence doctored in every imaginable way, data. The plunge in house prices is in fact accelerating.

 

 

“Spanish house prices tumbled at their fastest pace on record in the fourth quarter, a sign that a long-running property bust will continue to weigh on Spanish households and banks.

House prices fell on average by 11.2% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier, well below the 7.4% decline in the third quarter, while prices of used homes was down 13.7% in the period, the country's statistics agency INE said Thursday.

Both readings are by far the worst since INE started recording countrywide prices in 2007, the peak year for Spain's decade-long property boom. Previously, annual price declines had bottomed out at 7.7% in 2009, and analysts say house prices have only rarely fallen year-to-year since at least the 1970s.

The drop indicates Spanish property prices are now correcting at a similar pace to that seen in the U.S. soon after the 2008 financial crisis, and may fall further at least this year. In previous quarters, price drops were somewhat contained, the result of support efforts by the government and banks, fearful of the effect of a housing collapse.

Spanish banks hold more than €400 billion ($521.32 billion) worth of loans to the construction and real-estate sector, backed by collateral that loses value as property prices slide further. The amount is equivalent to around 40% of Spain's gross domestic product.

 

(emphasis added)

 


 

Spain's house price decline according to official statistics: the worst  fall ever.

 


 

Now, we can not stress enough here that the official data grievously understate the true state of affairs. They are however used by the banks as the basis for evaluating the collateral backing the real estate loans on their books. 

It follows therefore that Spain's banking system continues to be even more rickety than is  generally believed. The current 'Operation Spanish Ponzi', whereby the banks 'bail out' the government by buying Spanish government debt with funding from the ECB's LTRO's, while the two government-owned bank bail-out agencies  are concurrently bailing out the banks,  seems inevitably destined to fail. This scheme relies on the idea that the financial markets can be conned forever and ever. Now, it is certainly true that the markets can be conned for extended periods. Sadly, 'forever' is a mite too extended in this context.

Already the first cracks in this happy arrangement are beginning to show: a government bond auction on Thursday drew less demand than expected and the treasury sold less paper than it had planned (although yields remained fairly low by recent standards).

As to the future of house prices in Spain, the WSJ inter alia quotes a Spanish economist at Global Insight:

 

Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Global Insight, said government data indicates Spanish house prices are down more than 20% from the 2007-2008 peak, even though other evidence points to a possible drop of more than 30%. [actually, there is still other evidence indicating it's more like 40% to 50% by now, ed.]

"The continued imbalance between the supply and demand of housing suggests that house prices will continue to fall throughout 2012," Mr. Badiani said. "The outlook remains bleak, with the demand for housing expected to shrink throughout 2012 with debt-laden households struggling to cope with a devastated labor market and limited access to credit."

Last month, Spain's Finance Minister Luis de Guindos presented a clean-up plan that will force banks to set aside an additional €50 billion this year to cover losses from souring loans, mostly property-related. The plan also seeks to allow a faster correction of the property market this year, so that lower prices trigger some demand in the moribund sector.

Earlier this week, INE data showed Spain's property sales continued their recent slide in January, with a 26% annual decline. Last year, just over 361,000 homes were sold in Spain, less than half the number sold in 2007.

The clean-up plan and other reforms may only have a delayed effect on the euro zone's fourth-largest economy, the Ernst & Young consultancy said in a report. A lack of demand amid an economic contraction that may stretch until 2014 should keep house prices falling for the next three years, Ernst & Young added.”

 

(emphasis added)

Remember that only a year ago, the Bank of Spain insisted that Spain's banking system would need only € 20 billion in the 'worst case'. Now this amount has grown to € 50 billion, so it seems that something worse than the 'worst case' has happened.  It is highly likely that this amount will still not be enough. Of course we are predicating this opinion on the notion that all over Europe, banks are considered too precious to be allowed to actually fail,  with perhaps only the very smallest ones excepted form this rule.

 

Spain – Even Worse than Greece?

A few days ago, Sony Kapoor, managing director of the 'Re-define' think tank appeared on CNBC and pronounced Spain to be a 'worse case than Greece'.

Now,we're not sure if one can really go that far. After all, Spain at least sports a vibrant and fairly competitive export industry, although it is probably too small to matter in the current crisis. Still, it is interesting that there are quite a few people out there who do not think the LTRO inflation exercise has solved all problems in Europe.

This is in contrast to the official eurocrat line, which is of course that everything is copacetic again.

 

“Spain has very large downside risks and it needs to tread very carefully – Spain is in a very fragile situation. Its problems are significantly worse than Greece’s,” Sony Kapoor, managing director at international think tank Re-Define said.”

[…]

Wolfgang Schaeuble, German finance minister, speaking at the meeting dismissed any comparisons with Greece describing it as a “completely unique case” adding that Spain “had made great progress but we’re all still on a tough path.”

Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC.com that underlying issues in Spain could derail any attempts to curb the budget deficit.

“There are some reports that suggest that public debt might be higher than the official statistics show and there’s a concern that it might end up worryingly high over the next couple of years. The banking system is also fragile and the fact that there’s a housing overhang means we could see a situation like that in Ireland,” May told CNBC.com.

He added that talk of bailouts and defaults would then be ramped up but with far worse consequences than Greece.

“Spain is so much larger than Greece, so even if there is a small risk of a default or a bailout then it has much bigger implications for the euro zone than Greece had,” May added.

 

(emphasis added)

And that is actually the crucial point here: it is not so much the question whether Spain's situation is really 'worse than Greece's', which seems to be a slightly dubious proposition. It is the fact that a crisis in Spain matters a lot more to the future of the euro area than the crisis in Greece. The current consensus has it that 'Greece has been walled off', but consider how much angst and money this procedure has so far cost – and that is not even considering the fact that Greece may need yet another bailout or debt restructuring down the road.

The problem is that Spain is so much bigger – it is the quintessential 'too big to bail' case.

 


 

5 year CDS on Portugal, Italy, and Spain. It is noteworthy that both Portugal's and Spain's have begun to trend higher once again. Spain is now once again considered a worse credit risk than Italy, which is as it should be.



 

Spain's IBEX has been sitting out the recent rally in 'risk assets' across the world. It continues to be mired in a secular down trend – click for better resolution.

 


 

 

Charts by: StockCharts, Bloomberg, WSJ


 
 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 
 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

3 Responses to “Spain – The Next Domino Is Getting Ready to Tumble”

  • Andyc:

    Like clockwork, Greece gets put on the back burner to simmer and Spain gets moved to the front burner to bring to a boil.

    I wonder when the harried chef finally throws up his hands and says I quit!!

    : )

  • Crysangle:

    Noticing that both Greece and Portugal were unable to access ECB liquidity to support their sovereign debt requirements , and the exact reasons for this being unclear
    (lack of remaining unencumbered suitable assets possibly) , there is not too much surprise at Spain (and to some extent Italy ) taking up fully on the LTRO with poorer quality colateral accepted. To my view the lack of access to funding liquidity pushed the sovereign crisis to its new political levels for the bailed nations (clearly in combination with a loss of outside confidence). Looking at Spain it is not given that the banks will be able to support sovereign expenditure and issuance even with the LTRO top up .

    The below link has BIS charts of recent capital flight from Spain/Italy .

    http://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2012/03/13/el-bis-revela-que-la-fuga-de-depositos-extranjeros-se-acelera-en-espana-e-italia-94254/

    There has been a lonstanding decreasing capture of both household and business deposits domestically also , that in spite of the interest rate competition that has been underway.

    Apart from strikes, civil unrest, excess deficit , unemployment, housing bust, rising delinquent debt, bankruptcies, regional debt, and so on, I am wondering just where we will find the pressure applied to Spain to the point of it having to be bailed out also. If Portugal defaults that would be another weight for Spain’s financial system , maybe enough to send Spain to bankruptcy , if not we will have to look at if Spain’s funding dries, and maybe also what the German view is. I expect everyone is waiting for the result of the French elections.

  • Eddy:

    Private forecasts put unemployment rate near 25% in 1Q2012 (400.000 plus jobs lost in the quarter)..and this is happening before the gov announces big cuts in public spending/increase in taxes at the end of March in order to achieve the 5,3% deficit target.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Modi’s Great Leap Forward
      India’s Currency Ban – Part VIII India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, Part-V, Part-VI and Part-VII, which provide updates on the demonetization saga and how Modi is acting as a catalyst to hasten the rapid degradation of India and what remains of its institutions.   India’s Pride and Joy   Indians are...
  • Global Recession and Other Visions for 2017
      Conjuring Up Visions Today’s a day for considering new hopes, new dreams, and new hallucinations.  The New Year is here, after all.  Now is the time to turn over a new leaf and start afresh. Naturally, 2017 will be the year you get exactly what’s coming to you. Both good and bad.  But what else will happen?   Image of a recently discarded vision... Image by Michael Del Mundo   Here we begin by closing our eyes and slowing our breath.  We let our mind...
  • US Financial Markets – Alarm Bells are Ringing
      A Shift in Expectations When discussing the outlook for so-called “risk assets”, i.e., mainly stocks and corporate bonds (particularly low-grade bonds) and their counterparts on the “safe haven” end of the spectrum (such as gold and government bonds with strong ratings), one has to consider different time frames and the indicators applicable to these time frames. Since Donald Trump's election victory, there have been sizable moves in stocks, gold and treasury bonds, as the election...
  • The Great El Monte Public Pension Swindle
      Nowhere City California There are places in Southern California where, although the sun always shines, they haven’t seen a ray of light for over 50-years.  There’s a no man’s land of urban blight along Interstate 10, from East Los Angeles through the San Gabriel Valley, where cities you’ve never heard of and would never go to, are jumbled together like shipping containers on Terminal Island.  El Monte, California, is one of those places.   Advice dispensed on Interstate...
  • A Trade Deal Trump Cannot Improve
      Worst in Class BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things.   Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said: "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was your age, I always did it for...
  • Pope Francis Now International Monetary Guru
      Neo-Marxist Pope Francis Argues for Global Central Bank As the new year dawns, it seems the current occupant of St. Peter’s Chair will take on a new function which is outside the purview of the office that the Divine Founder of his institution had clearly mandated.   Neo-Papist transmogrification. We highly recommend the economic thought of one of Francis' storied predecessors, John Paul II, which we have written about on previous occasions. In “A Tale of Two Popes” and...
  • Where’s the Outrage?
      Blind to Crony Socialism Whenever a failed CEO is fired with a cushy payoff, the outrage is swift and voluminous.  The liberal press usually misrepresents this as a hypocritical “jobs for the boys” program within the capitalist class.  In reality, the payoffs are almost always contractual obligations, often for deferred compensation, that the companies vigorously try to avoid.  Believe me.  I’ve been on both sides of this kind of dispute (except, of course, for the “failed”...
  • Trump’s Trade Catastrophe?
      “Trade Cheaters” It is worse than “voodoo economics,” says former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. It is the “economic equivalent of creationism.” Wait a minute -  Larry Summers is wrong about almost everything. Could he be right about this?   Larry Summers, the man who is usually wrong about almost everything. As we have always argued, the economy is much safer when he sleeps, so his tendency to fall asleep on all sorts of occasions should definitely be welcomed....
  • Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle
      A Difference of Opinions In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. In his The Case for 100 Percent Gold Dollar Rothbard wrote:   I therefore advocate as the soundest monetary system and the only one fully compatible with the free market and with the absence of force or fraud...
  • Trump’s Plan to Close the Trade Deficit with China
      Rags to Riches Jack Ma is an amiable fellow.  Back in 1994, while visiting the United States he decided to give that newfangled internet thing a whirl.  At a moment of peak inspiration, he executed his first search engine request by typing in the word beer.   Jack Ma, founder and CEO of Alibaba, China's largest e-commerce firm. Once he was a school teacher, but it turned out that he had enormous entrepreneurial talent and that the world of wheelers, dealers, movers and...
  • Side Notes, January 14 - Red Flags Over Goldman Sachs
      Red Flags Over Goldman Sachs Just to prove that I am an even-handed insulter, here is a rant about my former employer, Goldman Sachs. The scandal at 1MDB, the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund from which it appears that billions were stolen by politicians all the way up to the Prime Minister, continues to unfold.   The main players in the 1MDB scandal. Irony alert: apparently money siphoned off from 1MDB was used to inter alia finance Martin Scorcese's movie “The Wolf of...
  • Silver’s Got Fundamentals - Precious Metals Supply-Demand Report
      Supply-Demand Fundamentals Improve Noticeably Last week was another short week, due to the New Year holiday. We look forward to getting back to our regularly scheduled market action.   Photo via thedailycoin.org   The prices of both metals moved up again this week. Something very noticeable is occurring in the supply and demand fundamentals. We will give an update on that, but first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices.   Prices of gold and silver...

Austrian Theory and Investment

Support Acting Man

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

j9TJzzN

350x200

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com