Spanish House Prices Plunge Again

It is well known that Spain's economy is in a depression, and we do not use this term lightly. With the official unemployment rate at about 23% and youth unemployment close to 50% it is not an exaggeration to speak of a depression.  The probability of social upheaval erupting with greater frequency is extremely high. We already noted that the general strike recently called for by Spain's unions is only the fifth since the end of the Franco regime in 1975. It is a rare event in Spain and underscores the decline in the social mood and the growing desperation. Those who still have work want to protect their privileges and use the unemployed as their political weapon.

Meanwhile, Spain's banks are quietly sinking beneath the waves. They are  the quintessential zombies, especially the insolvent cajas, which are drowning in real estate related assets that see the value of their collateral inexorably spiraling down the drain (as an aside here: the Fed's recent 'stress test' of US banks possibly has not  taken sufficient account of this 'moving target problem'; as we have seen mentioned elsewhere, it also failed to consider the remote possibility that treasury bonds may decline more than it currently widely expected).

But let's return to Spain. The WSJ reports on the latest house price data, and keep in mind here that these are the 'official' and hence doctored in every imaginable way, data. The plunge in house prices is in fact accelerating.

 

 

“Spanish house prices tumbled at their fastest pace on record in the fourth quarter, a sign that a long-running property bust will continue to weigh on Spanish households and banks.

House prices fell on average by 11.2% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier, well below the 7.4% decline in the third quarter, while prices of used homes was down 13.7% in the period, the country's statistics agency INE said Thursday.

Both readings are by far the worst since INE started recording countrywide prices in 2007, the peak year for Spain's decade-long property boom. Previously, annual price declines had bottomed out at 7.7% in 2009, and analysts say house prices have only rarely fallen year-to-year since at least the 1970s.

The drop indicates Spanish property prices are now correcting at a similar pace to that seen in the U.S. soon after the 2008 financial crisis, and may fall further at least this year. In previous quarters, price drops were somewhat contained, the result of support efforts by the government and banks, fearful of the effect of a housing collapse.

Spanish banks hold more than €400 billion ($521.32 billion) worth of loans to the construction and real-estate sector, backed by collateral that loses value as property prices slide further. The amount is equivalent to around 40% of Spain's gross domestic product.

 

(emphasis added)

 


 

Spain's house price decline according to official statistics: the worst  fall ever.

 


 

Now, we can not stress enough here that the official data grievously understate the true state of affairs. They are however used by the banks as the basis for evaluating the collateral backing the real estate loans on their books. 

It follows therefore that Spain's banking system continues to be even more rickety than is  generally believed. The current 'Operation Spanish Ponzi', whereby the banks 'bail out' the government by buying Spanish government debt with funding from the ECB's LTRO's, while the two government-owned bank bail-out agencies  are concurrently bailing out the banks,  seems inevitably destined to fail. This scheme relies on the idea that the financial markets can be conned forever and ever. Now, it is certainly true that the markets can be conned for extended periods. Sadly, 'forever' is a mite too extended in this context.

Already the first cracks in this happy arrangement are beginning to show: a government bond auction on Thursday drew less demand than expected and the treasury sold less paper than it had planned (although yields remained fairly low by recent standards).

As to the future of house prices in Spain, the WSJ inter alia quotes a Spanish economist at Global Insight:

 

Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Global Insight, said government data indicates Spanish house prices are down more than 20% from the 2007-2008 peak, even though other evidence points to a possible drop of more than 30%. [actually, there is still other evidence indicating it's more like 40% to 50% by now, ed.]

"The continued imbalance between the supply and demand of housing suggests that house prices will continue to fall throughout 2012," Mr. Badiani said. "The outlook remains bleak, with the demand for housing expected to shrink throughout 2012 with debt-laden households struggling to cope with a devastated labor market and limited access to credit."

Last month, Spain's Finance Minister Luis de Guindos presented a clean-up plan that will force banks to set aside an additional €50 billion this year to cover losses from souring loans, mostly property-related. The plan also seeks to allow a faster correction of the property market this year, so that lower prices trigger some demand in the moribund sector.

Earlier this week, INE data showed Spain's property sales continued their recent slide in January, with a 26% annual decline. Last year, just over 361,000 homes were sold in Spain, less than half the number sold in 2007.

The clean-up plan and other reforms may only have a delayed effect on the euro zone's fourth-largest economy, the Ernst & Young consultancy said in a report. A lack of demand amid an economic contraction that may stretch until 2014 should keep house prices falling for the next three years, Ernst & Young added.”

 

(emphasis added)

Remember that only a year ago, the Bank of Spain insisted that Spain's banking system would need only € 20 billion in the 'worst case'. Now this amount has grown to € 50 billion, so it seems that something worse than the 'worst case' has happened.  It is highly likely that this amount will still not be enough. Of course we are predicating this opinion on the notion that all over Europe, banks are considered too precious to be allowed to actually fail,  with perhaps only the very smallest ones excepted form this rule.

 

Spain – Even Worse than Greece?

A few days ago, Sony Kapoor, managing director of the 'Re-define' think tank appeared on CNBC and pronounced Spain to be a 'worse case than Greece'.

Now,we're not sure if one can really go that far. After all, Spain at least sports a vibrant and fairly competitive export industry, although it is probably too small to matter in the current crisis. Still, it is interesting that there are quite a few people out there who do not think the LTRO inflation exercise has solved all problems in Europe.

This is in contrast to the official eurocrat line, which is of course that everything is copacetic again.

 

“Spain has very large downside risks and it needs to tread very carefully – Spain is in a very fragile situation. Its problems are significantly worse than Greece’s,” Sony Kapoor, managing director at international think tank Re-Define said.”

[…]

Wolfgang Schaeuble, German finance minister, speaking at the meeting dismissed any comparisons with Greece describing it as a “completely unique case” adding that Spain “had made great progress but we’re all still on a tough path.”

Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC.com that underlying issues in Spain could derail any attempts to curb the budget deficit.

“There are some reports that suggest that public debt might be higher than the official statistics show and there’s a concern that it might end up worryingly high over the next couple of years. The banking system is also fragile and the fact that there’s a housing overhang means we could see a situation like that in Ireland,” May told CNBC.com.

He added that talk of bailouts and defaults would then be ramped up but with far worse consequences than Greece.

“Spain is so much larger than Greece, so even if there is a small risk of a default or a bailout then it has much bigger implications for the euro zone than Greece had,” May added.

 

(emphasis added)

And that is actually the crucial point here: it is not so much the question whether Spain's situation is really 'worse than Greece's', which seems to be a slightly dubious proposition. It is the fact that a crisis in Spain matters a lot more to the future of the euro area than the crisis in Greece. The current consensus has it that 'Greece has been walled off', but consider how much angst and money this procedure has so far cost – and that is not even considering the fact that Greece may need yet another bailout or debt restructuring down the road.

The problem is that Spain is so much bigger – it is the quintessential 'too big to bail' case.

 


 

5 year CDS on Portugal, Italy, and Spain. It is noteworthy that both Portugal's and Spain's have begun to trend higher once again. Spain is now once again considered a worse credit risk than Italy, which is as it should be.



 

Spain's IBEX has been sitting out the recent rally in 'risk assets' across the world. It continues to be mired in a secular down trend – click for better resolution.

 


 

 

Charts by: StockCharts, Bloomberg, WSJ


 
 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 
 

 
 

Dear Readers!

It is that time of the year again – our semi-annual funding drive begins today. Give us a little hand in offsetting the costs of running this blog, as advertising revenue alone is insufficient. You can help us reach our modest funding goal by donating either via paypal or bitcoin. Those of you who have made a ton of money based on some of the things we have said in these pages (we actually made a few good calls lately!), please feel free to up your donations accordingly (we are sorry if you have followed one of our bad calls. This is of course your own fault). Other than that, we can only repeat that donations to this site are apt to secure many benefits. These range from sound sleep, to children including you in their songs, to the potential of obtaining privileges in the afterlife (the latter cannot be guaranteed, but it seems highly likely). As always, we are greatly honored by your readership and hope that our special mixture of entertainment and education is adding a little value to your life!

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

3 Responses to “Spain – The Next Domino Is Getting Ready to Tumble”

  • Andyc:

    Like clockwork, Greece gets put on the back burner to simmer and Spain gets moved to the front burner to bring to a boil.

    I wonder when the harried chef finally throws up his hands and says I quit!!

    : )

  • Crysangle:

    Noticing that both Greece and Portugal were unable to access ECB liquidity to support their sovereign debt requirements , and the exact reasons for this being unclear
    (lack of remaining unencumbered suitable assets possibly) , there is not too much surprise at Spain (and to some extent Italy ) taking up fully on the LTRO with poorer quality colateral accepted. To my view the lack of access to funding liquidity pushed the sovereign crisis to its new political levels for the bailed nations (clearly in combination with a loss of outside confidence). Looking at Spain it is not given that the banks will be able to support sovereign expenditure and issuance even with the LTRO top up .

    The below link has BIS charts of recent capital flight from Spain/Italy .

    http://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2012/03/13/el-bis-revela-que-la-fuga-de-depositos-extranjeros-se-acelera-en-espana-e-italia-94254/

    There has been a lonstanding decreasing capture of both household and business deposits domestically also , that in spite of the interest rate competition that has been underway.

    Apart from strikes, civil unrest, excess deficit , unemployment, housing bust, rising delinquent debt, bankruptcies, regional debt, and so on, I am wondering just where we will find the pressure applied to Spain to the point of it having to be bailed out also. If Portugal defaults that would be another weight for Spain’s financial system , maybe enough to send Spain to bankruptcy , if not we will have to look at if Spain’s funding dries, and maybe also what the German view is. I expect everyone is waiting for the result of the French elections.

  • Eddy:

    Private forecasts put unemployment rate near 25% in 1Q2012 (400.000 plus jobs lost in the quarter)..and this is happening before the gov announces big cuts in public spending/increase in taxes at the end of March in order to achieve the 5,3% deficit target.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • TMS-2 fast versionA Date Which Will Live in Infamy
      President Nixon’s Decision to Abandon the Gold Standard Franklin Delano Roosevelt called the Japanese “surprise” attack on the U.S. occupied territory of Hawaii and its naval base Pearl Harbor, “A Date Which Will Live in Infamy.”  Similar words should be used for President Nixon’s draconian decision 45 years ago this month that removed America from the last vestiges of the gold standard.   Nixon points out where numerous evil speculators were suspected to be...
  • Perfect-InvestmentInsanity, Oddities and Dark Clouds in Credit-Land
      Insanity Rules Bond markets are certainly displaying a lot of enthusiasm at the moment – and it doesn't matter which bonds one looks at, as the famous “hunt for yield” continues to obliterate interest returns across the board like a steamroller. Corporate and government debt have been soaring for years, but investor appetite for such debt has evidently grown even more.   The perfect investment for modern times: interest-free risk! Illuustration by Howard...
  • Factories, new vs oldUS Economy – Something is not Right
      Another Strong Payrolls Report – is it Meaningful? This morning the punters in the casino were cheered up by yet another strong payrolls report, the second in a row. Leaving aside the fact that it will be revised out of all recognition when all is said and done, does it actually mean the economy is strong?   Quo vadis, economy? Image credit: Paul Raphaelson   As we usually point out at this juncture: apart from the problem that US labor force participation has...
  • CorporateMediacontrolTrump's Tax Plan, Clinton Corruption and Mainstream Media Propaganda
      Fake Money, Fake Capital OUZILLY, France – Little change in the markets on Monday. We are in the middle of vacation season. Who wants to think too much about the stock market? Not us! Yesterday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump promised to reform the U.S. tax system.   This should actually even appeal to supporters of Bernie Sanders: the lowest income groups will be completely exempt from income and capital gains taxes under Trump's plan. We expect to hear...
  • mania1The Great Stock Market Swindle
      Short Circuited Feedback Loops Finding and filling gaps in the market is one avenue for entrepreneurial success.  Obviously, the first to tap into an unmet consumer demand can unlock massive profits.  But unless there’s some comparative advantage, competition will quickly commoditize the market and profit margins will decline to just above breakeven.   Example of a “commoditized” market – hard-drive storage costs per GB. This is actually the essence of economic...
  • Mark Carney starts work as Bank of England governor in Dave Simonds cartoonBank of England QE and the Imaginary “Brexit Shock”
      Mark Carney, Wrecking Ball For reasons we cannot even begin to fathom, Mark Carney is considered a “superstar” among central bankers. Presumably this was one of the reasons why the British government helped him to execute a well-timed exit from the Bank of Canada by hiring him to head the Bank of England (well-timed because he disappeared from Canada with its bubble economy seemingly still intact, leaving his successor to take the blame).   This is how Mark Carney is seen by...
  • old friendsAn Old Friend Returns
      A Rare Apparition An old friend suddenly showed up out of the blue yesterday and I’m not talking about a contributor who had washed out and, after years of ‘working for the man’, decided to return for another whack at beating the market. Instead I am delighted to report that I am looking at a bona fide confirmed VIX sell signal which we haven’t seen for ages here.   Hello, old friend. Professor X and Magneto staring each other down in the plastic...
  • web-puzzled-man-scratching-head-retro-everett-collection-shutterstock_91956314News from TINA Land
      Distortions and Crazy Ideas We have come across a few articles recently that discuss some of the strategies investors are using or contemplating to use as a result of the market distortions caused by current central bank policies. Readers have no doubt noticed that numerous inter-market correlations seem to have been suspended lately, and that many things are happening that superficially seem to make little sense (e.g. falling junk bond yields while defaults are surging; the yen rising...
  • tortoiseThe Fabian Society and the Gradual Rise of Statist Socialism
      The “Third Way”   “Stealth, intrigue, subversion, and the deception of never calling socialism by its right name” – George Bernard Shaw   An emblem of the Fabian Society: a wolf in sheep's clothing   The Brexit referendum has revealed the existence of a deep polarization in British politics. Apart from the public faces of the opposing campaigns, there were however also undisclosed parties with a vested interest which few people have heard about. And...
  • storming the storeRetail Snails
      Second Half Recovery Dented by “Resurgent Consumer” We normally don't comment in real time on individual economic data releases. Generally we believe it makes more sense to occasionally look at a bigger picture overview, once at least some of the inevitable revisions have been made. The update we posted last week (“US Economy, Something is Not Right”) is an example.   Eager consumers storming a store Photo credit: Daniel Acker / Bloomberg   We'll make an...
  • The CongressThe Fed’s “Waterloo” Moment
      Corrupt and Unsustainable James has been a big help. Trying to get him to sleep at night, we have been telling him fantastic and unbelievable bedtime stories – full of grotesque monsters... evil maniacs... and events that couldn’t possibly be true (catch up here and here).   He turned his head until his gaze came to rest on the barred windows of the main building. Finally, he spoke; as far as I was aware these were the first words he had uttered in more than five years....
  • Lighthouse in Storm --- Image by © John Lund/CorbisSilver is in a Different World
      The Lighthouse Problem Measured in gold, the price of the dollar hardly budged this week. It fell less than one tenth of a milligram, from 23.29 to 23.20mg. However, in silver terms, it’s a different story. The dollar became more valuable, rising from 1.58 to 1.61 grams.   Who put that bobbing lighthouse there? Image credit: John Lund / Corbis   Most people would say that gold went up $6 and silver went down 43 cents. We wonder, if they were on a sinking boat,...

Austrian Theory and Investment

Support Acting Man

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

j9TJzzN

350x200

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com