Spanish House Prices Plunge Again

It is well known that Spain's economy is in a depression, and we do not use this term lightly. With the official unemployment rate at about 23% and youth unemployment close to 50% it is not an exaggeration to speak of a depression.  The probability of social upheaval erupting with greater frequency is extremely high. We already noted that the general strike recently called for by Spain's unions is only the fifth since the end of the Franco regime in 1975. It is a rare event in Spain and underscores the decline in the social mood and the growing desperation. Those who still have work want to protect their privileges and use the unemployed as their political weapon.

Meanwhile, Spain's banks are quietly sinking beneath the waves. They are  the quintessential zombies, especially the insolvent cajas, which are drowning in real estate related assets that see the value of their collateral inexorably spiraling down the drain (as an aside here: the Fed's recent 'stress test' of US banks possibly has not  taken sufficient account of this 'moving target problem'; as we have seen mentioned elsewhere, it also failed to consider the remote possibility that treasury bonds may decline more than it currently widely expected).

But let's return to Spain. The WSJ reports on the latest house price data, and keep in mind here that these are the 'official' and hence doctored in every imaginable way, data. The plunge in house prices is in fact accelerating.

 

 

“Spanish house prices tumbled at their fastest pace on record in the fourth quarter, a sign that a long-running property bust will continue to weigh on Spanish households and banks.

House prices fell on average by 11.2% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier, well below the 7.4% decline in the third quarter, while prices of used homes was down 13.7% in the period, the country's statistics agency INE said Thursday.

Both readings are by far the worst since INE started recording countrywide prices in 2007, the peak year for Spain's decade-long property boom. Previously, annual price declines had bottomed out at 7.7% in 2009, and analysts say house prices have only rarely fallen year-to-year since at least the 1970s.

The drop indicates Spanish property prices are now correcting at a similar pace to that seen in the U.S. soon after the 2008 financial crisis, and may fall further at least this year. In previous quarters, price drops were somewhat contained, the result of support efforts by the government and banks, fearful of the effect of a housing collapse.

Spanish banks hold more than €400 billion ($521.32 billion) worth of loans to the construction and real-estate sector, backed by collateral that loses value as property prices slide further. The amount is equivalent to around 40% of Spain's gross domestic product.

 

(emphasis added)

 


 

Spain's house price decline according to official statistics: the worst  fall ever.

 


 

Now, we can not stress enough here that the official data grievously understate the true state of affairs. They are however used by the banks as the basis for evaluating the collateral backing the real estate loans on their books. 

It follows therefore that Spain's banking system continues to be even more rickety than is  generally believed. The current 'Operation Spanish Ponzi', whereby the banks 'bail out' the government by buying Spanish government debt with funding from the ECB's LTRO's, while the two government-owned bank bail-out agencies  are concurrently bailing out the banks,  seems inevitably destined to fail. This scheme relies on the idea that the financial markets can be conned forever and ever. Now, it is certainly true that the markets can be conned for extended periods. Sadly, 'forever' is a mite too extended in this context.

Already the first cracks in this happy arrangement are beginning to show: a government bond auction on Thursday drew less demand than expected and the treasury sold less paper than it had planned (although yields remained fairly low by recent standards).

As to the future of house prices in Spain, the WSJ inter alia quotes a Spanish economist at Global Insight:

 

Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Global Insight, said government data indicates Spanish house prices are down more than 20% from the 2007-2008 peak, even though other evidence points to a possible drop of more than 30%. [actually, there is still other evidence indicating it's more like 40% to 50% by now, ed.]

"The continued imbalance between the supply and demand of housing suggests that house prices will continue to fall throughout 2012," Mr. Badiani said. "The outlook remains bleak, with the demand for housing expected to shrink throughout 2012 with debt-laden households struggling to cope with a devastated labor market and limited access to credit."

Last month, Spain's Finance Minister Luis de Guindos presented a clean-up plan that will force banks to set aside an additional €50 billion this year to cover losses from souring loans, mostly property-related. The plan also seeks to allow a faster correction of the property market this year, so that lower prices trigger some demand in the moribund sector.

Earlier this week, INE data showed Spain's property sales continued their recent slide in January, with a 26% annual decline. Last year, just over 361,000 homes were sold in Spain, less than half the number sold in 2007.

The clean-up plan and other reforms may only have a delayed effect on the euro zone's fourth-largest economy, the Ernst & Young consultancy said in a report. A lack of demand amid an economic contraction that may stretch until 2014 should keep house prices falling for the next three years, Ernst & Young added.”

 

(emphasis added)

Remember that only a year ago, the Bank of Spain insisted that Spain's banking system would need only € 20 billion in the 'worst case'. Now this amount has grown to € 50 billion, so it seems that something worse than the 'worst case' has happened.  It is highly likely that this amount will still not be enough. Of course we are predicating this opinion on the notion that all over Europe, banks are considered too precious to be allowed to actually fail,  with perhaps only the very smallest ones excepted form this rule.

 

Spain – Even Worse than Greece?

A few days ago, Sony Kapoor, managing director of the 'Re-define' think tank appeared on CNBC and pronounced Spain to be a 'worse case than Greece'.

Now,we're not sure if one can really go that far. After all, Spain at least sports a vibrant and fairly competitive export industry, although it is probably too small to matter in the current crisis. Still, it is interesting that there are quite a few people out there who do not think the LTRO inflation exercise has solved all problems in Europe.

This is in contrast to the official eurocrat line, which is of course that everything is copacetic again.

 

“Spain has very large downside risks and it needs to tread very carefully – Spain is in a very fragile situation. Its problems are significantly worse than Greece’s,” Sony Kapoor, managing director at international think tank Re-Define said.”

[…]

Wolfgang Schaeuble, German finance minister, speaking at the meeting dismissed any comparisons with Greece describing it as a “completely unique case” adding that Spain “had made great progress but we’re all still on a tough path.”

Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC.com that underlying issues in Spain could derail any attempts to curb the budget deficit.

“There are some reports that suggest that public debt might be higher than the official statistics show and there’s a concern that it might end up worryingly high over the next couple of years. The banking system is also fragile and the fact that there’s a housing overhang means we could see a situation like that in Ireland,” May told CNBC.com.

He added that talk of bailouts and defaults would then be ramped up but with far worse consequences than Greece.

“Spain is so much larger than Greece, so even if there is a small risk of a default or a bailout then it has much bigger implications for the euro zone than Greece had,” May added.

 

(emphasis added)

And that is actually the crucial point here: it is not so much the question whether Spain's situation is really 'worse than Greece's', which seems to be a slightly dubious proposition. It is the fact that a crisis in Spain matters a lot more to the future of the euro area than the crisis in Greece. The current consensus has it that 'Greece has been walled off', but consider how much angst and money this procedure has so far cost – and that is not even considering the fact that Greece may need yet another bailout or debt restructuring down the road.

The problem is that Spain is so much bigger – it is the quintessential 'too big to bail' case.

 


 

5 year CDS on Portugal, Italy, and Spain. It is noteworthy that both Portugal's and Spain's have begun to trend higher once again. Spain is now once again considered a worse credit risk than Italy, which is as it should be.



 

Spain's IBEX has been sitting out the recent rally in 'risk assets' across the world. It continues to be mired in a secular down trend – click for better resolution.

 


 

 

Charts by: StockCharts, Bloomberg, WSJ


 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

3 Responses to “Spain – The Next Domino Is Getting Ready to Tumble”

  • Andyc:

    Like clockwork, Greece gets put on the back burner to simmer and Spain gets moved to the front burner to bring to a boil.

    I wonder when the harried chef finally throws up his hands and says I quit!!

    : )

  • Crysangle:

    Noticing that both Greece and Portugal were unable to access ECB liquidity to support their sovereign debt requirements , and the exact reasons for this being unclear
    (lack of remaining unencumbered suitable assets possibly) , there is not too much surprise at Spain (and to some extent Italy ) taking up fully on the LTRO with poorer quality colateral accepted. To my view the lack of access to funding liquidity pushed the sovereign crisis to its new political levels for the bailed nations (clearly in combination with a loss of outside confidence). Looking at Spain it is not given that the banks will be able to support sovereign expenditure and issuance even with the LTRO top up .

    The below link has BIS charts of recent capital flight from Spain/Italy .

    http://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2012/03/13/el-bis-revela-que-la-fuga-de-depositos-extranjeros-se-acelera-en-espana-e-italia-94254/

    There has been a lonstanding decreasing capture of both household and business deposits domestically also , that in spite of the interest rate competition that has been underway.

    Apart from strikes, civil unrest, excess deficit , unemployment, housing bust, rising delinquent debt, bankruptcies, regional debt, and so on, I am wondering just where we will find the pressure applied to Spain to the point of it having to be bailed out also. If Portugal defaults that would be another weight for Spain’s financial system , maybe enough to send Spain to bankruptcy , if not we will have to look at if Spain’s funding dries, and maybe also what the German view is. I expect everyone is waiting for the result of the French elections.

  • Eddy:

    Private forecasts put unemployment rate near 25% in 1Q2012 (400.000 plus jobs lost in the quarter)..and this is happening before the gov announces big cuts in public spending/increase in taxes at the end of March in order to achieve the 5,3% deficit target.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Trade War Game On!
      Interesting Times Arrive “Things sure are getting exciting again, ain’t they?”  The remark was made by a colleague on Tuesday morning, as we stepped off the elevator to grab a cup of coffee.   Ancient Chinese curse alert... [PT]   “One moment markets are gorging on financial slop like fat pigs in mud.  The next they’re collectively vomiting on themselves. I’ll tell you one thing.  President Trump’s trade war with China won’t end well.  I mean, come...
  • The Dollar Cancer and the Gold Cure
      The Long Run is Here The dollar is failing. Millions of people can see at least some of the major signs, such as the collapse of interest rates, record high number of people not counted in the workforce, and debt rising from already-unpayable levels at an accelerating rate.   Total US credit market debt has hit a new high of $68.6 trillion at the end of 2017. That's up from $22.3 trillion a mere 20 years ago. It's a fairly good bet this isn't sustainable....
  • US Stock Market: Happy Days Are Here Again? Not so Fast...
      A “Typical” Correction? A Narrative Fail May Be in Store Obviously, assorted crash analogs have by now gone out of the window – we already noted that the market was late if it was to continue to mimic them, as the decline would have had to accelerate in the last week of March to remain in compliance with the “official time table”. Of course crashes are always very low probability events – but there are occasions when they have a higher probability than otherwise, and we will...
  • Rise of the Japanese Androids
      Good Intentions One of the unspoken delights in life is the rich satisfaction that comes with bearing witness to the spectacular failure of an offensive and unjust system. This week served up a lavish plate of delicious appetizers with both a style and refinement that’s ordinarily reserved for a competitive speed eating contest. What a remarkable time to be alive.   It seemed a good idea at first... [PT]   Many thrilling stories of doom and gloom were published...
  • Claudio Grass on Cryptocurrencies and Gold – An X22 Report Interview
       The Global Community is Unhappy With the Monetary System, Change is Coming Our friend Claudio Grass of Precious Metal Advisory Switzerland was recently interviewed by the X22 Report on cryptocurrencies and gold. He offers interesting perspectives on cryptocurrencies, bringing them into context with Hayek's idea of the denationalization of money. The connection is that they have originated in the market and exist in a framework of free competition, with users determining which of them...
  • No Revolution Just Yet - Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      Irredeemably Yours... Yuan Stops Rallying at the Wrong Moment The so-called petro-yuan was to revolutionize the world of irredeemable fiat paper currencies. Well, since its launch on March 26 — it has gone down. It was to be an enabler for oil companies who were desperate to sell oil for gold, but could not do so until the yuan oil contract.   After becoming progressively stronger over the past year, it looks as thought the 6.25 level in USDCNY is providing support for the...
  • Flight of the Bricks - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      The Lighthouse Moves Picture, if you will, a brick slowly falling off a cliff. The brick is printed with green ink, and engraved on it are the words “Federal Reserve Note” (FRN). A camera is mounted to the brick. The camera shows lots of things moving up. The cliff face is whizzing upwards at a blur. A black painted brick labeled “oil” is going up pretty fast, but not so fast as the cliff face. It is up 26% in a year. A special brick, a government data brick of sorts, labeled...
  • The “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries
      A Well Known Seasonal Phenomenon in the US Market – Is There More to It? I already discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in a previous issues of Seasonal Insights, see e.g. this report from earlier this year. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.   Due to continual monetary inflation in the...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

Top10BestPro
j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Austrian Theory and Investment

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com

Diary of a Rogue Economist