PSI Participation at 85% to Trigger CACs

Finally the umpteenth deadline for Greece has come and gone and everybody seem satisfied with the outcome: due to the high participation rate (over 85%), the PSI  deal can be rightly regarded as a success. However, just as was ecxpected all along, the participation rate did not reach the threshold necessary to avoid the activation of retroactive collective action clauses.

As Bloomberg reports:

 

Greece pushed through the biggest sovereign restructuring in history after cajoling private investors to forgive more than 100 billion euros ($132 billion) of debt, opening the way for a second bailout.

Euro-region finance ministers agreed on a conference call that the swap meant Greece had met the terms to proceed with a 130 billion-euro rescue package designed to prevent a collapse of the Greek economy. Ministers freed up 35.5 billion euros in public sweeteners and interest now, with a decision on the balance to be made at a March 12 meeting in Brussels.

 

“It would be a big mistake to think we are out of the woods,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters in Berlin after the call today. “We have a chance of making it. And we have to seize that opportunity.”

Stocks rose while the euro fell after the government in Athens said it will trigger an option forcing some investors to take part in the exchange. Officials from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association called a meeting today to consider a “potential credit event” relating to Greece.

[…]

Investors with 95.7 percent of Greece’s privately held bonds will participate in the swap after so-called collective action clauses are triggered, the Finance Ministry said. Bondholders tendered 152 billion euros of Greek-law bonds, or 85.8 percent, and 20 billion euros of foreign-law debt. Greece extended its offer to holders of non-Greek law bonds to March 23, after which sweeteners will no longer be available.”

[…]

With Greece now in a fifth year of recession, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos’s government had said that it was ready to force holders of Greek-law bonds into the swap. The use of collective action clauses may trigger $3 billion of insurance payouts under rules governing credit-default swap contracts.

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that participation “surpassed expectations” and he would recommend to Cabinet the authority to activate collective action clauses.

“This is a dangerous precedent that has been set,” John Wraith, fixed-income strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown” with Linzie Janis and Owen Thomas. For Greece, “yes, it is probably necessary, but it is just another hurdle crossed rather than some sort of solution.”

 

(emphasis added)

A few comments to the above:

A) the PSI deal is not “designed to prevent a collapse of the Greek economy”. It is designed to keep the charade of the common currency and the fiat money/perpetual debt Three Card Monte game of the Western welfare states going.

B) Schäuble is correct. “We” are not out of the woods. The opportunity will most assuredly be squandered if the past is any guide.

C) If ISDA fails to declare a credit event, the market for sovereign CDS is probably dead. Alas, as you will see below, the market is anticipating that ISDA will relent.

D) The result was good enough to avert a 'disorderly' default, but it is clear that the 'voluntary' nature of the debt swap is a complete farce. Due to the fact that public sector lenders to Greece such as the ECB, EU and IMF did not participate in the 'haircut' exercise, Greece's debt load remains at an unmanageable level even after the PSI deal.

 

Credit Market Charts

Below is our customary collection of charts,  updating the usual suspects: CDS on various sovereign debtors and banks, bond yields, euro basis swaps and a few other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Prices are as of Thursday's close.

CDS on Greece ended at a new all time record high of nearly 26,000 basis points on Thursday – a sign that market participants think that the declaration of a  'credit event' by ISDA is a foregone conclusion.

Other sovereign CDS and bond yields generally eased again on Thursday.

 


 

5 year CDS on Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – CDS on Greece end at a new record high on the eve of the debt swap deal – a nigh incredible 26,000 basis points – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on France, Belgium, Ireland and Japan – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary and Austria – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Romania, Poland,  the Ukraine and Estonia – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Turkey – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

CDS on Germany, the US and the Markit SovX index of CDS on 19 Western European sovereigns – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

Three month, one year, three year and five year euro basis swaps – a little better again – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

Our proprietary unweighted index of 5 year CDS on eight major European banks (BBVA, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredito) – dipping further – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on two big Austrian banks, Erste Bank and Raiffeisen Bank – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

10 year government bond yields of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

5 year CDS on Australia's 'Big Four' banks – click chart for better resolution.

 


 

 

Addendum:

As it has now turned out, ISDA has declared that Greece has experienced a 'credit event'. This is not unexpected of course, but the market reaction late in the day (stocks were selling off a little bit after the announcement) indicates that market participants are somehow 'surprised'.

Marketwatch reports:

 

„The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said Friday that the Greek government's use of collective-action clauses, or CACs, to amend to terms of Greece-issued bonds qualifies as a "credit event" for Greece. A credit event requires a payout to those who held credit default swaps as insurance to protect themselves in the event of a Greek default. The ISDA decision could trigger payouts on $3.2 billion of those insurance-like contracts, according to Dow Jones Newswires. The news comes after the Greek government announced that 83.5% of its private-sector bondholders agreed to a bond-swap deal. That rate fell short of the 90% needed to prevent legal force to get the rest of the private bondholders to participate, so Greece's finance ministry said it got approval for CACs, which would bring the total participation rate to 96% by forcing some bondholders on board.“

 

 

Charts by: Bloomberg


 
 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 
 

 

Dear Readers! We are happy to report that we have reached our turn-of-the-year funding goal and want to extend a special thank you to all of you who have chipped in. We are very grateful for your support! As a general remark, according to usually well informed circles, exercising the donation button in between funding drives is definitely legal and highly appreciated as well.

   

Bitcoin address: 1DRkVzUmkGaz9xAP81us86zzxh5VMEhNke

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • tintedFree Money Leaves Everyone Poorer
      Destroying Lives BALTIMORE – A dear reader reminded us of the comment, supposedly made by Groucho Marx: “A free lunch? You can’t afford a free lunch.”   Groucho dispensing valuable advice Photo via imdb.com   He was responding to last week’s Diary about the national referendum in Switzerland on Saturday. Voters will decide whether to give all Swiss residents a free lunch – a guaranteed annual income of about $30,000 a year [ed note: the initiative was...
  • offendFree Speech Under Attack
      Offending People Left and Right Bill Bonner, whose Diaries we republish here, is well-known for being an equal opportunity offender  - meaning that political affiliation, gender, age, or any other defining characteristics won't save worthy targets from getting offended. As far as we are concerned, we generally try not to be unnecessarily rude to people, but occasionally giving offense is not exactly beneath us either.   The motto of the equal opportunity...
  • French labour union workers and students attend a demonstration against the French labour law proposal in Marseille, France, as part of a nationwide labor reform protests and strikes, March 31, 2016. REUTERS/Jean-Paul Pelissier/File PhotoHow the Welfare State Dies
      Hollande Threatens to Ban Protests Brexit has diverted attention from another little drama playing out in Europe. As of the time of writing, if you Google “Hollande threatens to ban protests” or variations thereof, you will find Russian, South African and even Iranian press reports on the topic. Otherwise, it's basically crickets (sole exception: Politico).  Gee, we wonder why?   They don't like him anymore: 120.000 protesters recently turned Paris into a war zone. All...
  • cameron-doomedMoving Closer to BREXIT
      Polls Show Growing Support for a Break with the EU In the UK as elsewhere, the political elites may have underestimated the strength of the trend change in social mood across Europe. The most recent “You-Gov” and ICM pools show a widening lead in favor of a UK exit from the EU as the day of the vote comes closer.   Pro-BREXIT campaigners Boris Johnson (ex-mayor of London) and Michael Gove (UK Secretary of Justice) are in a good mood. Photo credit: Paul Grover /...
  • water houseA Market Ready to Blow and the Flag of the Conquerors
      Bold Prediction MICHAELS, Maryland – The flag in front of our hotel flies at half-mast. The little town of St. Michaels is a tourist and conference destination on the Chesapeake Bay. It is far from Orlando, and even farther from Daesh (a.k.a. ISIL) and the Mideast.   St. Michaels, Maryland – the town that fooled the British (they say, today). Photo credit: Fletcher6   Out on the river, a sleek sailboat, with lacquered wood trim, glides by, making hardly a...
  • The-answer-is-yesToward Freedom: Will The UK Write History?
      Mutating Promises  We are less than one week away from the EU referendum, the moment when the British people will be called upon to make a historic decision – will they vote to “Brexit” or to “Bremain”? Both camps have been going at each other with fierce campaigns to tilt the vote in their direction, but according to the latest polls, with the “Leave” camp’s latest surge still within the margin of error, the outcome is too close to call.   The battle lines are...
  • MACAU, CHINA - JANUARY 28: Buildings of Macau Casino on January 28, 2013, Gambling tourism is Macau's biggest source of revenue, making up about fifty percent of the economy.What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
      A Convocation Of Gamblers The Wall Street Journal and BloombergView have just run articles on the shadow banking system in China.  This has put me in a nostalgic mood. About 35 years ago when I was living in Japan, I made a side trip to Hong Kong.   Asia's Sin City, Macau Photo credit: Nattee Chalermtiragool   I took the hydrofoil to Macau one afternoon and the same service back early the next morning.  On the morning trip, I am sure that I saw many of the...
  • tree removal permit-1The Real Reason We Have a Welfare State
      From Subject to Citizen BALTIMORE – June 5th, the Swiss cast their votes and registered their opinions: “No,” they said. We left off yesterday wondering why something for nothing never works. Not as monetary policy. Not as welfare or foreign aid. Not in commerce. Not never, no how. But something for nothing is what people most want.   The future Switzerland just managed to dodge... for now   The Swiss voted against awarding all citizens a “universal basic...
  • junkThe Problem with Corporate Debt
      Taking Off Like a Rocket There are actually two problems with corporate debt. One is that there is too much of it... the other is that a lot of it appears to be going sour.   Harvey had a good time in recent years...well, not so much between mid 2014 and early 2016, but happy days are here again! Cartoon by Frank Modell   As a brief report at Marketwatch last week (widely ignored as far as we are aware) informs us:   “Businesses racked up debt in the...
  • saupload_loves-me-loves-me-notA Darwin Award for Capital Allocation
      Beyond Human Capacity Distilling down and projecting out the economy’s limitless spectrum of interrelationships is near impossible to do with any regular accuracy.  The inputs are too vast.  The relationships are too erratic.   The economy - complex and ever-changing interrelations. Image credit: Andrea Dionne   Quite frankly, keeping tabs on it all is beyond human capacity.  This also goes for the federal government.  Even with all their data gatherers and...
  • nails-in-a-bed-of-nails-new-yorker-cartoonGoing... Going... Gone! The EU Begins to Splinter
      Dark Social Mood Tsunami Washes Ashore Early this morning one might have been forgiven for thinking that Japan had probably just been hit by another tsunami. The Nikkei was down 1,300 points, the yen briefly soared above par. Gold had intermittently gained 100 smackers – if memory serves, the biggest nominal intra-day gain ever recorded (with the possible exception of one or two days in early 1980). Here is a picture of Haruhiko Kuroda in front of his Bloomberg monitor this...
  • queen_gold-840x501Rule Britannia
      A Glorious Day What a glorious day for Britain and anyone among you who continues to believe in the ideas of liberty, freedom, and sovereign democratic rule. The British people have cast their vote and I have never ever felt so relieved about having been wrong. Against all expectations, the leave camp somehow managed to push the referendum across the center line, with 51.9% of voters counted electing to leave the European Union.   Waving good-bye to...

Austrian Theory and Investment

Support Acting Man

Own physical gold and silver outside a bank

Archive

j9TJzzN

350x200

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com