- How the Welfare State Dies
Hollande Threatens to Ban Protests
Brexit has diverted attention from another little drama playing out in Europe. As of the time of writing, if you Google “Hollande threatens to ban protests” or variations thereof, you will find Russian, South African and even Iranian press reports on the topic. Otherwise, it's basically crickets (sole exception: Politico). Gee, we wonder why?
They don't like him anymore: 120.000 protesters recently turned Paris into a war zone. All...
- Toward Freedom: Will The UK Write History?
We are less than one week away from the EU referendum, the moment when the British people will be called upon to make a historic decision – will they vote to “Brexit” or to “Bremain”? Both camps have been going at each other with fierce campaigns to tilt the vote in their direction, but according to the latest polls, with the “Leave” camp’s latest surge still within the margin of error, the outcome is too close to call.
The battle lines are...
- Going... Going... Gone! The EU Begins to Splinter
Dark Social Mood Tsunami Washes Ashore
Early this morning one might have been forgiven for thinking that Japan had probably just been hit by another tsunami. The Nikkei was down 1,300 points, the yen briefly soared above par. Gold had intermittently gained 100 smackers – if memory serves, the biggest nominal intra-day gain ever recorded (with the possible exception of one or two days in early 1980). Here is a picture of Haruhiko Kuroda in front of his Bloomberg monitor this...
- A Market Ready to Blow and the Flag of the Conquerors
MICHAELS, Maryland – The flag in front of our hotel flies at half-mast. The little town of St. Michaels is a tourist and conference destination on the Chesapeake Bay. It is far from Orlando, and even farther from Daesh (a.k.a. ISIL) and the Mideast.
St. Michaels, Maryland – the town that fooled the British (they say, today).
Photo credit: Fletcher6
Out on the river, a sleek sailboat, with lacquered wood trim, glides by, making hardly a...
- Rule Britannia
A Glorious Day
What a glorious day for Britain and anyone among you who continues to believe in the ideas of liberty, freedom, and sovereign democratic rule. The British people have cast their vote and I have never ever felt so relieved about having been wrong. Against all expectations, the leave camp somehow managed to push the referendum across the center line, with 51.9% of voters counted electing to leave the European Union.
Waving good-bye to...
- The Problem with Corporate Debt
Taking Off Like a Rocket
There are actually two problems with corporate debt. One is that there is too much of it... the other is that a lot of it appears to be going sour.
Harvey had a good time in recent years...well, not so much between mid 2014 and early 2016, but happy days are here again!
Cartoon by Frank Modell
As a brief report at Marketwatch last week (widely ignored as far as we are aware) informs us:
“Businesses racked up debt in the...
- The Fed’s Doomsday Device
BALTIMORE – Barron’s, in a lather, says the market is facing the “Two Horsemen of the Apocalypse.” Huh?
Only two? There were four last time!
Supposedly, the so-called Brexit – the vote in Britain this Thursday on whether to leave or remain in the European Union (EU) – and uncertainty over where the Fed will take U.S. interest rates are cutting down stocks faster than a Z-turn mower.
But Brexit is a side show. As our contacts in London...
- In Gold We Trust, 2016
The 10th Anniversary Edition of the “In Gold We Trust” Report
As every year at the end of June, our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek, the managers of the Incrementum funds, have released the In Gold We Trust report, one of the most comprehensive and most widely read gold reports in the world. The report can be downloaded further below.
Gold, daily, over the past year - click to enlarge.
The report celebrates its 10th anniversary this year. As...
- Janet Yellen’s $200-Trillion Debt Problem
BALTIMORE – The U.S. stock market broke its losing streak on Thursday [and even more so on Monday, ed.]. After five straight losing sessions, the Dow eked out a 92-point gain. The financial media didn’t know what to say about it. So, we ended up with the typical inanities, myths, and claptrap.
“Investors” are pushing the DJIA back up again..apparently any excuse will do at the moment. The idea may backfire though, as exactly the same thing happened...
- Gold and Brexit
Going Up for the Wrong Reason
Gold is soaring. It should—and a lot—but in my view not for the reason it is. Indeed gold is insurance for uncertain times, a time that Brexit seems to represent. But insurance is an administrative cost — one must minimize its use.
August gold contract, daily – gold has been strong of late, but this seems to be driven by “Brexit” fears - click to enlarge.
Moreover, insuring against Brexit might ironically be equivalent...
- Brexit Paranoia Creeps Into the Markets
European Stocks Look Really Bad...
Late last week stock markets around the world weakened and it seemed as though recent “Brexit” polls showing that the “leave” campaign has obtained a slight lead provided the trigger. The idea was supported by a notable surge in the British pound's volatility.
Battening down the hatches...
On the other hand, if one looks at European stocks, one could just as well argue that their bearish trend is simply continuing – and...
- Vive la Revolution! Brexit and a Dying Order
A Dying Order
Last Thursday, the Brits said auf Wiedersehen and au revoir to the European Union. On Friday, the Dow sold off 611 points – a roughly 3.5% slump. What’s going on?
Surprise winners of the “Britain has political talent” contest...
In Europe and the U.S., the masses are getting restless. Mr. Guy Wroble of Denver, Colorado, explained why in a short letter to the Financial Times:
The old liberal world order is dying because the...