Neo-Marxist Pope Francis Argues for Global Central Bank
As the new year dawns, it seems the current occupant of St. Peter’s Chair will take on a new function which is outside the purview of the office that the Divine Founder of his institution had clearly mandated.
Neo-Papist transmogrification. We highly recommend the economic thought of one of Francis’ storied predecessors, John Paul II, which we have written about on previous occasions. In “A Tale of Two Popes” and “Papal Eco-Hysteria”, we have contrasted Francis and John Paul II and quoted from the latter’s seminal encyclical “Centesimus Annus”, which probably contains the most clear-headed thinking on human liberty and economics that has ever emerged from the Vatican. Francis strikes us as a throwback to a completely discredited and dangerous ideology by comparison. Lately he is even calling for the establishment of a global central bank!
Surface Temperatures Plunge – the Great Pause Continues
Last year’s El Nino phenomenon temporarily provided succor to climate alarmists, who were increasingly bothered by the “Great Pause” – the fact that the tiny amount of warming experienced since the last cooling cycle ended in the late 1970s had apparently stopped. Despite trace amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere continuing to climb, mother nature decided to disobey alarmist models and temperatures went sideways for about 20 years (or even longer, depending on the data set).
Too bad penguins actually don’t live at the North Pole! One probably should refrain from obtaining climate information from rabidly leftist blogs. Incidentally, the same very same ice-floe has carried lost polar bears in the past, in particular the species “ursus bogus”. If one looks around a bit, there’s also a version with three penguins…
BALTIMORE – Fidel Castro was regarded as a revolutionary and a “change agent.”
But he is better understood as a throwback, more of a counter-revolutionary than a real revolutionary. The real revolution in human affairs happened long before he was born… and is still going on – the revolution led by civilized free-market capitalism.
Finger-wagging Fidel Castro on the cover of TIME in 1965, which by this time accused his revolution of “decaying”. The US government initially continued to subsidize Cuba in the wake of Castro’s takeover as he had given less than truthful assurances that the “handful of communists” in his cabinet had no influence on Cuba’s policies. The Batista government’s economic policies had a great many statist features as well, so at first it seemed as though the differences between the two regimes would only be marginal – mainly, someone else would do the stealing. By the time the above cover story was published, the US was waging a full-scale economic war against Cuba. It is rare for a classical peasants’ revolt to actually succeed. Castro’s victory over Batista was quite a feat in that sense; not surprisingly, it elicited the admiration of Leftists the world over. Castro was not a Stalinist, presumably not least because Khrushchev had “de-Stalinized” the Soviet Union, but he did declare himself a Marxist-Leninist (which Stalin incidentally had claimed to be as well). The political Left’s misguided admiration for Castro never wavered though.
RHINEBECK, New York – Is the stock market dead? Nothing is happening there. It is the first of November. The countdown to the elections has begun; the nation seems to hold its breath.
Photo credit: Joe Ravi
When it comes to interesting charts or marginally promising setups I’m pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel right now. Not surprising really, given that the few remaining market participants (bots! cough cough) are firmly set in a holding pattern after a one year sideways churn and an impending Presidential election on November 8th which is thought to have the potential to be the catalyst for changes in the financial arena. I for one hold very little hopes on that end, no matter which of the two candidates will be sworn in come January.
There’s always the loonie though…
Photo credit: Fantasy Films
Lurid Media Coverage
In recent months, more and more of our clients and friends from overseas are asking us whether it is safe to travel to Europe. These fears are understandable, given the media coverage of the tragic events that occurred this year. The press painted a sinister and truly graphic picture of Europe as a war zone, as a target of global terrorism.
Inside the Brussels airport shortly after the bomb blast in March.
Photo credit: Pavel Ohal
Escaping the Hurricane
BALTIMORE – Last week, we got a peek at the End of the World. As Hurricane Matthew approached the coast of Florida, a panic set in. Gas stations ran out of fuel. Stores ran out of food. Banks ran out of cash.
A satellite image of hurricane Matthew taken on October 4. He didn’t look very friendly.
Image via twitter.com
Introductory Remarks by PT:
At first we actually didn’t want to post this particular Diary entry, because we felt it was too “off topic” (although we do of course occasionally discuss off topic issues), but upon further reflection it struck us that it is actually quite interesting when considered in a broader context.
EU spending: most of the budget is spent on subsidizing agriculture (which represents less than 2% of total economic output). As is the case with all government spending, it has turned out to be a burden rather than a boon, even for those it is supposed to help – click to enlarge.
$300 Trillion in Debt
DUBLIN – After our trip to Las Vegas, we spent one night in Baltimore and then got on another airplane. Standing in line, unpacking bags, getting zapped by X-ray machines – it has all become so routine we almost forget how absurd it is.
Get ready to be invaded, citizen…
Photo by David McNew / Getty Images
Myths and Legends
“Myths and legends die hard in America,” remarked Hunter S. Thompson in The Great Shark Hunt, nearly 40-years ago. Thompson didn’t likely have U.S. Treasury bonds in mind when he made this observation. Though, if he were still alive, he may find the present state of the great Treasury bond bubble to be an amusing anecdote.
Gonzo! Hunter S. Thompson, who had the theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours…
The Importance of Cabbages
LONDON – A dear reader challenged us:
“To create a perfect world what type of government would you propose?”
Another put it a different way:
“Again, I’m convinced more than ever, Trump is the only candidate that might have a chance to get us out of the financial and economic mess the United States is in. If Bonner & Partners is unable to recognize this, it tells me their agenda is not to fix America’s problems… but continue the agony…”
Emperor Diocletian in retirement, talking to his security detail. Famous quotes made on occasion of his decision to become a cabbage farmer: Diocletian: “Cabbages don’t talk back”. Maximianus (a.k.a. “M”, his co-regent as “Augustus of the West” from AD 286 to AD 305): “You’ve lost your marbles, old chap”. It later turned out that M’s assessment was erroneous. He got bored and came out of retirement after just one year to help his son Maxentius in his fight over the succession, as the “tetrarchy” put in place by Diocletian threatened to splinter. Maximianus succeeded in sorting things out in favor of his son, but not even two years later he recognized he had made a fateful mistake: Maxentius was actually unfit to rule. Maximianus not only told him so, but actually told everybody. Then he ripped the imperial toga from Maxentius before an assembly of soldiers, expecting the soldiers to side with him (he was an old war horse and battlefield hero after all). That turned out to be a miscalculation – instead was chased out of Italy in disgrace. Should have gone for cabbage farming too!
Engraving by Charlotte Mary Yonge
Laughing at Blue Monday
On May 28, 1962 – dubbed “Blue Monday” – the market fell 6%… its worst single-day slide since 1929.
Peter Stormonth Darling was an investment manager at investment bank S. G. Warburg & Co. at the time. He strolled in to tell his boss, Tony Griffin, how much the market had fallen.
Most read in the last 20 days:
- India: The World’s Fastest Growing Large Economy?
Popular Narrative India has been the world’s favorite country for the last three years. It is believed to have superseded China as the world’s fastest growing large economy. India is expected to grow at 7.5%. Compare that to the mere 6.3% growth that China has “fallen” to. India's quarterly annualized GDP growth rate since 2008, according to MOSPI (statistics ministry) - click to enlarge. The IMF, the World Bank, and the international media have celebrated...
- Don’t Blame Trump When the World Ends
Alien Economics There was, indeed, a time when clear thinking and lucid communication via the written word were held in high regard. As far as we can tell, this wonderful epoch concluded in 1936. Everything since has been tortured with varying degrees of gobbledygook. One should probably not be overly surprised that the abominable statist rag Time Magazine is fulsomely praising Keynes' nigh unreadable tome. We too suspect that this book has actually lowered the planet-wide IQ –...
- What is the Best Time to Buy Stocks?
Chasing Entry Points Something similar to the following has probably happened to you at some point: you want to buy a stock on a certain day and in order to time your entry, you start watching how it trades. Alas, the price rises and rises, and your patience begins to wear thin. Shouldn't a correction set in soon and provide you with a more favorable buying opportunity? Apple-Spotting – a five minute intraday chart showing the action in AAPL on February 1, 2017 - an...
- Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q1 2017 and Some Additional Reflections
Looming Currency and Liquidity Problems The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Advisory Board was held on January 11, approximately one month ago. A download link to a PDF document containing the full transcript including charts an be found at the end of this post. As always, a broad range of topics was discussed; although some time has passed since the meeting, all these issues remain relevant. Our comments below are taking developments that have taken place since then into...
- Gold and Silver Divergence – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Gold and Silver Divergence – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Last week, the prices of the metals went up, with the gold price rising every day and the silver price stalling out after rising 42 cents on Tuesday. The gold-silver ratio went up a bit this week, an unusual occurrence when prices are rising. Everyone knows that the price of silver is supposed to outperform — the way Pavlov’s Dogs know that food comes after the bell. Speculators usually make it...
- Trump and the Draining of the Swamp
Swamp Critters BALTIMORE – The Dow is back above the 20,000-point mark. Federal debt, as officially tallied, is up to nearly $20 trillion. The two go together, egging each other on. The Dow is up 20 times since 1980. So is the U.S. national debt. Debt feeds the stock market and the swamp. What’s not up so much is real output, as measured by GDP. It’s up only 6.4 times over the same period. Debt and asset prices have been rising three times as fast as GDP for 36 years! Best...
- Making America Great Again – How to Judge Policy
A Simple Formula MIAMI – How do we know if new programs will make the economy better... or worse? Here’s a simple formula: W = rv (w-w – w-l) That is, wealth is equal to the real value of win-win exchanges minus the loss from win-lose exchanges. Yes, dear reader, it’s as simple as that. Like a whittler working on a piece of wood, we’ve shaved so much off, there is nothing left of it... except the essential heartwood. When devising a win-win,...
- When Trumponomics Meets Abenomics
Thirty Year Retread What will President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talk about when they meet later today? Will they gab about what fishing holes the big belly bass are biting at? Will they share insider secrets on what watering holes are serving up the stiffest drinks? [ed. note: when we edited this article for Acting Man, the meeting was already underway] Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe, a dyed-in-the-wool Keynesian and militarist, meets America's...
- Gold Sector Update – What Stance is Appropriate?
The Technical Picture - a Comparison of Antecedents We wanted to post an update to our late December post on the gold sector for some time now (see “Gold – Ready to Spring Another Surprise?” for the details). Perhaps it was a good thing that some time has passed, as the current juncture seems particularly interesting. We received quite a few mails from friends and readers recently, expressing concern about the inability of gold stocks to lead, or even confirm strength in gold of...
- The Great Wailing
Regret and Suffering BALTIMORE – Victoribus spolia... So far, the most satisfying thing about the Trump win has been the howls and whines coming from the establishment. Each appointment – some good, some bad from our perspective – has brought forth such heavy lamentations. Oh no! Alaric the Visigoth is here! Hide the women and children! And don't forget the vestal virgins, if you can find any... You’d think Washington had been invaded by Goths, now...
- Receive a One Percent Gift When Buying or Selling a Home
How to Save Money When Buying or Make More When Selling a Home In your professional capacity and perhaps also in your private life, you may be closely involved with financial and commodity markets. Trading in stocks, bonds or futures is part of your daily routine. Occasionally you probably have to deal with real estate as well though – if you e.g. want to purchase an apartment or a house, or if own a home you wish to sell. The people who took this photograph probably want to...
- Silver Futures Market Assistance – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Silver Is Pushed Up Again This week, the prices of the metals moved up on Monday. Then the gold price went sideways for the rest of the week, but the silver price jumped on Friday. Taking off for real or not? Photo credit: NASA Is this the rocket ship to $50? Will Trump’s stimulus plan push up the price of silver? Or just push silver speculators to push up the price, at their own expense, again? This will again be a brief Report this week, as we are busy...