The Stock Market

     

 

 

Mid Summer Momo Update

It is hot and it is humid over here in Valencia. You want to know how hot? The other day a poodle’s tail caught fire just waiting in the sun. The more frantically he was wiggling his tail the brighter it burned.

 

2016-07-25_summer_beach-1000x562A time for quiet contemplation of the bright blue sea… while next door, the poodle burns!

Photo via piktpool.com

 

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Anecdotal Skepticism vs. Actual Data

About one month ago we read that risk parity and volatility targeting funds had record exposure to US equities. It seems unlikely that this has changed – what is likely though is that the exposure of CTAs has in the meantime increased as well, as the recent breakout in the SPX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs should be delivering the required technical signals.

 robot tradersThe bots keep buying…

Illustration via carolublog.wordpress.com

 

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Asset Price Levitation

One of the more preposterous deeds of modern central banking involves creating digital monetary credits from nothing and then using the faux money to purchase stocks.  If you’re unfamiliar with this erudite form of monetary policy this may sound rather fantastical.  But, in certain economies, this is now standard operating procedure.

 

tokyo whaleThe “Tokyo Whale” Haruhiko Kuroda explains his asset purchase madness with a few neat little slides.

Photo credit: Stringer / Xinhua Press / Corbis

 

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Time to Sell… Maybe

BALTIMORE – Yesterday, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. And the Dow just hit a new record close as well. If you haven’t sold yet, dear reader, this may be one of the best times ever to do so.

 

tattered flag bb.It’s still flying… sorta. Meet Bill Bonner’s tattered crash flag

Image credit: fmh

 

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Methuselah Tree

When looking for a good theme for this post I pondered for a while and then decided to use a picture of a bristlecone pine, which are widely considered to be the oldest living trees in the world.

 

bristlecone-1000x672Ye olde bristlecone

Photo credit:

 

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Net Lines

It’s that dreaded day after Independence Day. The weather is gorgeous and I don’t really feel like trading either. The thought of just phoning it in had occurred to me, but as the new month just rolled over I thought I may as well take another peek at our monthly charts. Which uncovered quite some interesting perspectives that I’m eager to share.

But no worries – we’re keeping it light and easy today. Consider this a purist’s approach to market analysis as we’re going to ignore everything but Net-Lines.

 

japanese-garden-sand-zen-garden-1000x667The picture for today’s Zen moment.

Photo credit: istock

 

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The Only Move for the Fed is Talking Down the Dollar

The Fed has no more maneuvers other than to jawbone the dollar lower. Because for a variety of reasons a strong dollar, in the current market environment, is akin to tighter monetary policy.

 

federal reserveThe Eccles Building

 

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The Sharp Move in the VIX Accelerates

In Monday’s trading session, the upward move in the volatility index VIX (which measures the implied volatility of SPX options) continued unabated, vastly out of proportion with the move in the underlying stock index. “Brexit” fears continue to grow, which has apparently been the driving force behind this move.

 

Una manifestazione a favore di Brexit a LondraThe “Brexiteers” are gaining support as the referendum date draws closer – global financial markets are getting somewhat upset over this.

Photo credit: Neil Hall / Reuters

 

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Believe It Or Not… There Actually Is Some Downside Risk

BALTIMORE – Not much action in the stock market last week. A few little steps ahead to over the 18,000 line for the Dow. Then a few little steps back. Currently  the index sits at 17,732.

 

1-DJIAThe Dow Jones Yawn Average, daily, plus a special message by Auntie Janet to the punters. Soon they may need an extra dose of Prozac too though – click to enlarge.

 

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Do or Die

I think I speak for everyone involved if I say that it’s way past high time for this market to either breach the wall ahead of SPX 2150 or finally accept defeat and relieve itself to the downside. It’s become a war of attrition at this point as we have been suffering through this deadlock of a market for more than a year. And may I say – it’s getting not just boring but increasingly annoying.

 

the_wall_must_fall-1000x593The Wall…

Image credit: Home Box Office (HBO)

 

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Home of the Anti-Bubble

It seems like almost everybody has an opinion about Twitter (TWTR) – both the company and the stock. As for the company it seems that their “window of opportunity” to massively succeed has essentially closed as user growth and revenue have both slowed, quite dramatically, over the past 18 months. Plus management turnover is clicking at a rapid pace. Company executives typically do not leave if the firm’s future seems bright.

 

DorseyJack Dorsey, the ubiquitous

Photo credit: John Sebastian Russo

 

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Dismal Number Bombardment

The May NFP jobs just dropped half an hour ago and the numbers were was so dismal that it left a smoking impact crater across equity futures. Apparently we added 38k jobs which was several standard deviations below the median forecast of 160k.

 

trouble_in_paradiseSomeone just threw a hand grenade M33 into the trench – and as is well known, that grenade can have a strong effect on morale

Photo credit: AP

 

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