Author Archives: Dominique Dassault

     

 

 

Both Political Candidates Demonstrate Economic Ignorance While Pandering For Votes

As we enter the final lap of the presidential race in the United States, as always, the two candidates will say just about anything to secure your vote. And of course the economy is a major topic of conversation. Loud calls for both higher wages and more jobs dominate the rhetoric.

 

Hill-DonThis year’s election may feature very polarizing and idiosyncratic candidates, but much of their rhetoric is not that much different from that heard on occasion of previous elections.

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

The Only Move for the Fed is Talking Down the Dollar

The Fed has no more maneuvers other than to jawbone the dollar lower. Because for a variety of reasons a strong dollar, in the current market environment, is akin to tighter monetary policy.

 

federal reserveThe Eccles Building

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Home of the Anti-Bubble

It seems like almost everybody has an opinion about Twitter (TWTR) – both the company and the stock. As for the company it seems that their “window of opportunity” to massively succeed has essentially closed as user growth and revenue have both slowed, quite dramatically, over the past 18 months. Plus management turnover is clicking at a rapid pace. Company executives typically do not leave if the firm’s future seems bright.

 

DorseyJack Dorsey, the ubiquitous

Photo credit: John Sebastian Russo

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Not Just Wrong, but Monumentally Wrong

Massive flaws at SUNE (Sun Edison) + VRX (Valeant) were somehow missed by both of these high profile/ well resourced hedge funds.

 

einhorn-ackman-660x330David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) and Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) – both fund managers had a terrible year 2015 (down about 20% each), but while Mr. Einhorn has changed his way and righted his ship so far in 2016, Mr. Ackman stubbornly stuck (and at one point even doubled down) on his biggest losing bet. As of early March, the performance spread between the two managers in 2016 had widened to 2,400 basis points in favor of Mr. Einhorn.

Photo credit: Brendan McDermid, Eduardo Munoz / Reuters

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Something Is Very Wrong Here

“Activist Investors”, the relatively new classification for corporate agitators, want you to believe that their intellectual tactics/strategies improve both corporate governance and shareholder returns. That may be true but they also seem to be involved in another, less savory, tactic… that is, inflating their company “ownership” claims with extremely large derivatives positions… as outlined in SEC disclosure filings.

 

Icahn-freeport
Carl Icahn, who recently acquired a sizable stake in Freeport

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Equity Risk Is Increasingly Non-Existent… By The Numbers

The concept of risk for hedge fund managers is a constant concern. The internal monologue goes something like this…what’s my downside if I initiate this position…how much can I lose if I am not right?”

The real answer is that you really have no idea…despite best efforts…even with stop losses [which I abhor]. The true, measurable risk of any position is only exactly known after you liquidate the position. Plus, risk management is more capital management than single stock management.

 

Beer-StierLittle did he know how it would all end …

Cartoon via wallstreetsurvivor.com

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

“Game Over” for Greece

The drama… the drama. I’ve had enough of this. And after examining the details any reasonable person ought to agree. The bottom line = Greece is a “free-loading” country with a “free-loading” national manifesto. This nation, and its people, have lived beyond their means for long enough. Their Debt/GDP ratio is > 175% and climbing. More importantly, the outlook for any economic recovery is bleak as Greece’s structural reforms seem insurmountable and definitely, to them, not at all palatable. Plus, the perceived/tolerated graft associated with the people/government Greece is just monumental. The proverbial “ride” they’ve been on has now come to a deservedly screeching halt.

 

shove-it

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

“The Man” is Playing with Fire 

 

businessman_cigar_money

Photo credit: Keystone

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

“We Are All Doing The Same Thing”

I recently listened to a podcast with some all-star [there are awards for everything now] “Black Box” equity trader. It was quite a “telling” interview & I thank him for his insights but I’d heard it all before. His confidence was staggering considering the general unpredictability of the future and, of course, the equity markets. He explained how he had completely converted from a generally unsuccessful, discretionary technical trading style to a purely quantitative and scientific trading mode. He seemed to be so excited that his models, according to him, were pretty much “bullet proof”. Having had more than just some tangential experience with black box modeling and trading myself I thought … you know … some people will just never learn.

 

maxresdefault

Image via iwatchapple.it

 

Read the rest of this entry »

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Trade War Game On!
      Interesting Times Arrive “Things sure are getting exciting again, ain’t they?”  The remark was made by a colleague on Tuesday morning, as we stepped off the elevator to grab a cup of coffee.   Ancient Chinese curse alert... [PT]   “One moment markets are gorging on financial slop like fat pigs in mud.  The next they’re collectively vomiting on themselves. I’ll tell you one thing.  President Trump’s trade war with China won’t end well.  I mean, come...
  • The Dollar Cancer and the Gold Cure
      The Long Run is Here The dollar is failing. Millions of people can see at least some of the major signs, such as the collapse of interest rates, record high number of people not counted in the workforce, and debt rising from already-unpayable levels at an accelerating rate.   Total US credit market debt has hit a new high of $68.6 trillion at the end of 2017. That's up from $22.3 trillion a mere 20 years ago. It's a fairly good bet this isn't sustainable....
  • US Stock Market: Happy Days Are Here Again? Not so Fast...
      A “Typical” Correction? A Narrative Fail May Be in Store Obviously, assorted crash analogs have by now gone out of the window – we already noted that the market was late if it was to continue to mimic them, as the decline would have had to accelerate in the last week of March to remain in compliance with the “official time table”. Of course crashes are always very low probability events – but there are occasions when they have a higher probability than otherwise, and we will...
  • Rise of the Japanese Androids
      Good Intentions One of the unspoken delights in life is the rich satisfaction that comes with bearing witness to the spectacular failure of an offensive and unjust system. This week served up a lavish plate of delicious appetizers with both a style and refinement that’s ordinarily reserved for a competitive speed eating contest. What a remarkable time to be alive.   It seemed a good idea at first... [PT]   Many thrilling stories of doom and gloom were published...
  • Claudio Grass on Cryptocurrencies and Gold – An X22 Report Interview
       The Global Community is Unhappy With the Monetary System, Change is Coming Our friend Claudio Grass of Precious Metal Advisory Switzerland was recently interviewed by the X22 Report on cryptocurrencies and gold. He offers interesting perspectives on cryptocurrencies, bringing them into context with Hayek's idea of the denationalization of money. The connection is that they have originated in the market and exist in a framework of free competition, with users determining which of them...
  • Getting High on Bubbles
      Turn on, Tune in, Drop out Back in the drug-soaked, if not halcyon, days known at the sexual and drug revolution—the 1960’s—many people were on a quest for the “perfect trip”, and the “perfect hit of acid” (the drug lysergic acid diethylamide, LSD).   Dr. Albert Hoffman and his famous bicycle ride through Basel after he ingested a few drops of LSD-25 by mistake. The photograph in the middle was taken at the Woodstock festival and inter alia serves as a...
  • No Revolution Just Yet - Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report
      Irredeemably Yours... Yuan Stops Rallying at the Wrong Moment The so-called petro-yuan was to revolutionize the world of irredeemable fiat paper currencies. Well, since its launch on March 26 — it has gone down. It was to be an enabler for oil companies who were desperate to sell oil for gold, but could not do so until the yuan oil contract.   After becoming progressively stronger over the past year, it looks as thought the 6.25 level in USDCNY is providing support for the...
  • The “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries
      A Well Known Seasonal Phenomenon in the US Market – Is There More to It? I already discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in a previous issues of Seasonal Insights, see e.g. this report from earlier this year. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.   Due to continual monetary inflation in the...
  • Flight of the Bricks - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      The Lighthouse Moves Picture, if you will, a brick slowly falling off a cliff. The brick is printed with green ink, and engraved on it are the words “Federal Reserve Note” (FRN). A camera is mounted to the brick. The camera shows lots of things moving up. The cliff face is whizzing upwards at a blur. A black painted brick labeled “oil” is going up pretty fast, but not so fast as the cliff face. It is up 26% in a year. A special brick, a government data brick of sorts, labeled...
  • From Fake Boom to Real Bust
      Paradise in LA LA Land More is revealed with each passing day.  You can count on it.  But what exactly the ‘more is of’ requires careful discrimination.  Is the ‘more’ merely more noise?  Or is it something of actual substance?  Today we endeavor to pass judgment, on your behalf.   Normally, judgment would be passed on a Thursday, but we are making an exception. [PT]   For example, here in the land of fruits and nuts, things are whacky, things are...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

Top10BestPro
j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Austrian Theory and Investment

Archive

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com

Diary of a Rogue Economist