Author Archives: Chris Hamilton

     

 

 

Demographics Driving Declines in Oil Consumption, Mounting Debt, & Central Bank Mismanagement

Sometimes, the simplest answer really is best.  I contend the primary and simplest factor that need be watched to gauge present and future economic activity are the changes in core populations (15-64 year old segment of the larger population) for any nation or grouping.

The core’s declining growth and outright shrinkage appear to be the trigger for declining oil consumption*. In turn, this slowing activity drives central bank reactionary interest rate  cuts intended to incentivize credit creation and leverage…all to get more (raise consumption) from less (a declining population set).

*Oil is generally irreplaceable by other sources and offers a good barometer of a nation’s general economic activity. 

 peoplePhoto credit: fmh

 

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Oil Production and Consumption

 

oilstock

Image via Taylor Russell

 

The first chart shows global oil production, by month, based on latest EIA data.  2014 saw significant production increases after fairly flat production in ’12 and ’13.

 

1-global oil productionGlobal crude oil production (source, EIA) – click to enlarge.

 

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