Author Archives: Jayant Bhandari

     

 

 

India’s Currency Ban, Part VII

This article continues right where Part VI left off (for earlier updates on the demonetization saga see Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, and Part-V).

There is still huge support for Modi even among the poor.  A big carrot is dangled before them, which makes many stay numb to their current suffering.  During his election campaign in 2014, Modi promised to deposit more than Rs 1.5 million (~$22,000) in each poor person’s account once the government had seized all black money.

 

Massive problems have been reported with the new bills. Some have been printed on defective paper and are simply falling apart. The inferior quality of the print job is generally often on the appalling side of deplorable. The new notes are counterfeited with great abandon, quite likely to a much greater extent than they ever were in the past. So much for Modi’s plan to stop counterfeiting.

Photo credit: The Hindu

 

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India’s Currency Ban – Part VI

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, and Part-V, which provide updates on the demonetization saga and how Modi is acting as a catalyst to hasten the rapid degradation of India and what remains of its institutions.

 

There are undoubtedly many differences between the two gentlemen depicted above, but both appear to have mastered the age-old trick of extending one’s grip on political power by inflicting chaos.

 

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A Brief Recap

India’s Prime Minister announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes will no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, and Part-IV, which provide updates on the rapidly encroaching police state

Expect a continuation of new social engineering notifications, each sabotaging wealth-creation, confiscating people’s wealth, and tyrannizing those who refuse to be a part of the herd, in the process destroying the very backbone of the economy and civilization.

There are clear signs that in a very convoluted way, possession of gold for investment purposes will be made illegal. Expect capital controls to follow. Chaos from people’s inability to access the money in their bank accounts is now spreading to the people who have so far been unaffected: the middle class.

This is a completely unnecessary man-made disaster, with the single aim of glorifying  Narendra Modi.

 

modi

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi

Photo credit: Reuters

 

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A Market Gripped by Fear

The Indian Prime Minister announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II and Part-III updates on the rapidly encroaching police state.

The economic and social mess that Modi has created is unprecedented. It will go down in history as an epitome of naivety and arrogance due to Modi’s self-centered desire to increase tax-collection at any cost.

 

shopIndian jewelry merchant

Photo via indiatimes.com

 

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When Money Dies

In part-I of the dispatch we talked about what happened during the first two days after Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi banned Rs 500 and Rs 1000 banknotes, comprising of 88% of the monetary value of cash in circulation. In part-II, we talked about the scenes, chaos, desperation, and massive loss of productive capacity that this ban had led to over the next few days.

 

modi-belgaum-pti-759Indian prime minister Narendra Modi – another finger-wagger, as can be seen in this photograph. Beware finger-wagging politicians, as we always point out. Modi now plans to impose income tax penalties on large bank deposits; the State’s rapaciousness knows no bounds and evidently the mere possession of some arbitrary amount of money considered “too large” now means one is deemed a criminal a priori in India. It goes without saying that the concept of property rights is alien to Modi. [PT]

Photo via indianexpress.com

 

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Chaos in the Wake of the Ban

Here is a link to Part 1, about what happened in the first two days after India’s government made Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes illegal. They can now only be converted to Rs 100 (~$1.50) or lower denomination notes, at bank branches or post offices. Banks were closed the first day after the decision. What follows is the crux of what has happened over the subsequent four days.

 

modi  India’s prime minister Nahendra Modi, author of the recent overnight currency ban

Photo credit: indiatimes.com

 

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India’s Government Makes Banknotes Worthless by Decree Overnight

As I write this in the morning of 9th November 2016, there are huge lines forming outside gold shops in India — and gold traded heavily until late into the night yesterday. Depending on who you ask, the retail price of gold has gone up between 15% and 20% within the last 10 hours.

 

img-20161109-wa0003Gold quotes in India – gold traded for as much as Rs 49,000 per 10 grams or US$ 2,294 per ounce

 

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Mining Stocks, Gold Prices and Commodity Price Trends

Gold has gone up >400% over the last 16 years. Ironically, it is hard to find a gold mining equity exhibiting similar performance. In retrospect, if one invested in gold, one not only made much better returns, one also took a relatively insignificant risk in comparison to owning equities—equities can go to zero while it is hard for a commodity to fall much below its cost of production. Moreover, depending on the jurisdiction, owning gold might have resulted in lower (or no) tax liabilities.

 

South DeepSouth Deep gold mine in South Africa

Photo via mining.com

 

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Going Up for the Wrong Reason

Gold is soaring. It should—and a lot—but in my view not for the reason it is. Indeed gold is insurance for uncertain times, a time that Brexit seems to represent. But insurance is an administrative cost — one must minimize its use.

 

August Gold, dailyAugust gold contract, daily – gold has been strong of late, but this seems to be driven by “Brexit” fears – click to enlarge.

 

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Money Printing and Price Inflation

Ten years back when the central banks around the western world—as elsewhere—were printing money with abandon, it was claimed by rational observers that this would lead to hyper-inflation. It was claimed that the best the central banks could do was to control short-term interest rates, surreptitiously expropriating the wealth of citizens.

Eventually the market had to find out, directly or indirectly, what was happening — as newly printed currency played havoc in the market — and prices in nominal terms would rise. Long-term yields on sovereign bonds were expected to sky-rocket, to account for increasing inflation.

 

800px-Salon_de_Madame_GeoffrinThe Age of Reason: Salon de Madame Goeffrin, a painting by Anicet Charles Gabriel Lemonnier, showing distinguished French thinkers of the Enlightenment gathered in one room.

 

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