Author Archives: MN Gordon

     

 

 

A Sucker’s Deal

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note’s accelerating its descent toward zero.  The last we checked the yield was at about 1.56 percent.  But in every practical sense, for income investors, a yield of 1.56 percent may as well be zero.

 

1 - 10 year treasury note yieldEven though the US treasury note is like the one-eyed man in the land of the blind these days, it still is a guarantee to lose money in real terms if held to maturity – click to enlarge.

 

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Beyond Human Capacity

Distilling down and projecting out the economy’s limitless spectrum of interrelationships is near impossible to do with any regular accuracy.  The inputs are too vast.  The relationships are too erratic.

 

blue ball machineThe economy – complex and ever-changing interrelations.

Image credit: Andrea Dionne

 

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Seven Year Achievement

 

“Read the directions and directly you will be directed in the right direction.” — Lewis Carroll

 

directionsSee? It’s easy Janet! Just read the directions!

Illustration credit: Walt Disney

 

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Tesla Goes Fishing

Tesla Motors is up to something remarkable.  But what it is, exactly, is unclear.  According to the Tesla Motors website, the company’s mission is: to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport.

 

tesla-model-3Tesla Model 3: the company’s first “mass market” entry so to speak, which is supposed to help the world to reach the nirvana of  “sustainable” transport. On the side, it is helping a number of Wall Street firms to increase their commission income.

Image credit: Tesla Motors

 

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Scratching the Surface

Problems, as people commonly perceive them, require solutions. Broken shoelaces must get fixed.  Regrettably, in today’s democracy this means the candidate who offers the most fixes – in the form of goodies – to the most people wins the election.

 

problemsThree gentlemen who need a solution real fast. “Did you bring the book?” “No, I thought you had it…”

Image credit: CreateSpace

 

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Hazards and Benefits

Rubbernecking at the economic train wreck of central planners is not without hazard.  A strained collar and dry eyes, for instance, are common perils.  So, too, is the lasting grimace of disbelief that comes with the roll-out of each zany scheme to save us from ourselves.

 

rictus-1Hazard of the dispassionate observer: the rictus of disbelief will get etched in one’s face.

 

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A Week to Remember

Today we look back to the recent past with singleness of purpose.  Context and edification for the present economy is what we’re after.  We have questions…

How come the recovery has been so weak?  Why is it that, nearly seven years after the official end of the Great Recession, the economy’s still mired in a soft muddy quagmire?  Squinting, focusing, and refocusing, there’s one particular week that rises above all others.

 

Hank the scaremongerHank the scaremonger – in meetings behind closed doors, he threatened Congressmen with financial apocalypse and even martial law if they didn’t hand over $700 billion in tax payer money with essentially no oversight. This has been independently confirmed by several Congressmen. Griffin’s “The Creature from Jekyll Island” is often decried as “conspiracy theory” by establishment shills, but it inter alia contains an eerie prediction of practically everything that eventually happened in 2008.

Photo credit: Talks at Google

 

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Stampeding Animals

The mass impulse of a cattle stampede can be triggered by something as innocuous as a blowing tumbleweed.  A sudden startle, or a perceived threat, is all it takes to it set off.  Once the herd collectively begins charging in one direction it will eliminate everything in its path.

 

bison-herdBetter get out of the way… stampeding bisons

Photo credit: Surface Niusance

 

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Intel Employees Get RIF’d

Dark storm clouds gather along the economic horizon.  They multiply ominously with each passing day.  The recovery, weak as it has been, has run for nearly seven years.  Now it appears to be sputtering and stalling out.

 

1-INTCIntel (INTC), monthly. The stock has performed fairly well since 2009 (most stocks have), but has yet to regain its bubble peak made 16 years ago. Its recent earnings report (“beating expectations”, natch) reminded us strongly of the accounting games played by IBM over the past few years, which were mainly designed to mask the ever more worrisome decline in its business. In Intel’s case the casino punters are still buying it (they’ll believe almost anything after all), at IBM it has stopped working – click to enlarge.

 

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Consumer Ambivalence

What’s up with U.S. consumers?  They seem to have come to their senses at the worst possible time.  They can no longer be counted on to push economic growth up and to the right.  Specifically, they’re not spending money on stuff.

 

Red Boxing GlovesA little public service on etymology: “Double whammy” was reportedly first used in a 1941 Oakland Tribune article related to boxing. It means a devastating blow, setback or catastrophe. In today’s economy, it often means “good summary”.

Photo credit: Pixelrobot

 

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Trading Snail Shell Spirals

Stock picking is an exercise in humility.  Ask anyone who has tried it.  Chances are their best ideas have gone against them more frequently than they’d care to admit.

One thing that makes stock picking so confounding, is that it seems so simple in hindsight.  Gazing at a stock’s price chart, the wave movements over time appear to be almost predictable.  The precise moments to buy and sell look clear and obvious.

 

1-e-wave, market cycleZooming in to see smaller and smaller waves, which are often self-similar at different time frames – a complete market cycle according to Elliott Wave theory – click to enlarge.

 

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Faux Growth Recovery

Nearly 7 years have elapsed since the official end of the Great Recession.  By now it’s painfully obvious the rising tide of economic recovery has failed to lift all boats.  In fact, many boats bottomed out on the rocks in early 2009 and have been taking on water ever since.

Last week, for instance, it was reported that U.S. credit card debt topped $917 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015.  That’s up $71 billion from the year before.  Shouldn’t the economic recovery allow consumers to pay down their debts?

 

Debt load increase, statischAnnual increase in credit card debt load….via cardhub (more data here) – click to enlarge.

 

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